Game Debrief: What Went Right And What Went Wrong?

Disappointed, disgusted and embarrassed

 

But they have a crazy amount of 1st round picks with elite talent drafting so they'll make it work somehow.

Crazy how they just picked up Ajay out of nowhere... dude was a late 2nd round draft pick and the guy was arguably their best player in a series.

Ridiculously stacked. That's why Shai is not MVP to me. Slide Jokic, Luka, Giannis, Wemby, or even 41 year old Bron on that team and they equally win the title just as good if not better.

 

I keep telling you guys about putting any credence in this fake MVP “award.”

 

ah--is it drafting or is it player development. if you look through their drafts, their hit rate isn't actually that great, imo. what they did was stock the roster with young players for a few years, sign the best of them to overmarket short-term deals, and give them plenty of runway.

i'm not sure that model rolls well once you're actually contending. like, do they have good guards to replace dort and caruso? yes. mitchell and wallace are good. but they won't be able to sign them to the cheap deals, and they may not have the guys in the incubator anymore because all those developmental minutes have dried up.

they're obviously in great position, but the team is still closer to the pack than it looks, and if the refs just wake up and decide to whistle SGA like other players, they're right back in the pack, imo. i'd like to be like that, too! but they're not an unbeatable juggernaut. they were just better than we were this year.

frankly, SA scares me a lot more if only because i truly think there's not a gameplan against wemby on either end. you can do nothing but hope he has an off game 4 times.

 

The best player on the best team award.

 

The player with the best whistle on the team with the best whistle award.

Spoiler

The floppiest player on the floppiest team award.

 

Last five years?
Aaron Wiggins, Tre Mann, Josh Giddey, Jaylin Williams, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Keyontae Johnson, Topic, Thomas Sorber.

A lot of these dudes are starters or NBA All-Stars.

Topic had cancer but he's a legitimate NBA starting PG.

Aaron Wiggins can play a solid role spot.

Thomas Sorber suffered an injury and hasn't played but he's got Evan Mobley potential.

When you have that many 1st round picks, you're going to get a lot of talent and they can just keep rotating between those players. As long as they have their core of Chet, Shai, Jalen WIlliams, they will have a strong supporting cast no matter who is on the roster

 

how do we know if someone who's never played is a legit nba starting pg?

giddy and the good williams were late lotto picks, chet was #2 overall. they had ousmane dieng (another late lotto pick) whom they failed to develop and had to let go, and another 1st rounder whose name escapes me that is already jhs-ed out of the league.

factor in pure roster math, and i just don't know if they can continue the developmental churn. we'll see, i guess. but i don't think they have special talent evaluation abilities, tbh.

 

I’m of the opinion that OKC have this year and next to compete before they’re back in the middle of the pack.

This year they’ll lose Dort, Kenrich and Joe
Next year they’ll lose Wallace and one of Caruso/J Will
The year after they lose one of Hart or Ajay Mitchell because they’ll have 3 max players already

That’s a lot of talent and it would be ridiculous to think that late 1sts and 2nd rounders can just fill all those gaps year after year.

 

An OKC friend of mine told me the chatter there is that Dort will be kept and the owner is ok to pay the tax. And the 2nd apron rules I think only start to impact greatly when in consecutive years.
They have A'Jay for like 2 or 3 years more at 3 million, that's insane. They are high on Sarber, a kid that they drafted this year and was out for the season I think. Topic happened the same and had the cancer thing but they have hope in him
And they have a zillion picks that will allow them to continue to recycle through role players under rookie contracts. Or can use to get cheap guys or effortlessly dump contracts.
They have the #12 this year too.

Their core 3 is identified and gelled together. They are all young and happen to not be in supermax contracts. I'm pretty sure they have a minimum 5 year window being always a top 5 team and a main contender

 

i'm certain your okc friend has a rosy outlook. but tbh, 5-year contention windows aren't super common, and the tremendous advantages they have right now are definitely going to evaporate. they can do an early 2000s spurs thing for sure, but people talk as though they're going to run off 5 titles in 7 years or something, when they barely got one last year, and i'm not so sure wemby doesn't end them this year.

 

True but there was also never a team so good with so much picks. Getting a future MVP+ 5 FRPs or whatever it was is unprecedented and probably won't happen again

If not mistaken they've been the top seed 3 years in a row? Saw some stat that they were 3 years consecutively doing something good lol

Point is they are a very good team, very young, good chemistry and culture with the most assets of the league and their 3 stars locked in for multiple years. It's the perfect scenario for a franchise, there's not so much avenues to go wrong while there's a lot to go right

Doesn't mean they'll win always and I have the Spurs beating them this year since the beginning of the playoffs. A bit "worried" with the inability of SA to not let games slip, they should have won more comfortably to Portland and Minny, but I still like their matchup with OKC.
And I did feel this OKC team is beatable as some, including you, shared here during this series. Especially in this last game, it was the first I thought they were actually trying and it went down to the last possession, without Luka. Their championship run wasn't impressive either.

But if they win it all or not will depend of many factors. But I do think they'll be in contention for a long time

 

OKC are so f'ed cap wise. I'm not sure if your friend understands to what extent. If they keep that team together as is, they have a tax bill of 214m. The total payroll and tax bill would be a combined 463m.

Let's say they let Kenrich go, re-sign Dort & Hart to team friendly deals at 15m and 25m per - they lower their salary by 13.9m and save about 90m in the tax, but their bill is still 125m. There's just no way that a team that never pays the tax is going to pay 125m.

If by some off chance they bring back Dort & Hartenstein and pay that tax, the 27-28 year's salary is going to be 260m without resigning Wallace, let's say they give Wallace 20m which is on the low end, that's 280m in salary. If the luxury tax threshold is 206m, their tax bill would be around $390m on top of their $280m salary. This is without any of their extra draft picks.

A much more likely scenario is they let Kenrich & Dort go and re-sign Hart to 25m per. That lowers their salary by 28.8m and their tax bill comes down from 214m to 44-45m next year. I could see them doing that. But if they do, they still have issues the following year. They'd be at 245m without Wallace. If they get rid of Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins to retain Cason Wallace. They'd still be 34m over the tax and have a bill of around 110m. So I think a good offer and Cason Wallace is gone plus they'll get rid of Caruso or JayWill + Joe to lower their tax.

Whichever way you slice it:

This offseason they lose Dort & Kenrich
Next offseason they lose Cason Wallace plus probabaly Caruso (that they'll have to attach draft assets to being 34)
The offseason after they lose Ajay Mitchell, McCain & Topic

Next year is their last year being this deep force. But thats what happens when you have a supermax and 2 max's plus 30m with Hartenstein. They'll have 30-40m or so to build out the rest of their 10 guys.

 

More likely scenario is, they trade Dort & Kenrich this year and then look to get rid of Jalen Williams next offseason, building around SGA, Wallace, Hartenstein & Holmgren. They still lose Ajay Mitchell the following year anyway, but can retain one of McCain or Topic.

It's going to be tough for them moving forward.

 

Great game brewing in Detroit.

This Jenkins kid is a great find;from a two-way contract , to a difference maker. Cool story.

Tie game 45 seconds left. Who wants it!!

 

Overtime. NBA playoffs are FANtastic!