Austin Reaves Discussion: How Much Is He Worth?

waive or stretch obviously

 

good news is the best we've looked has been with reaves/luka.

couldn't decide whether to put this in the jj thread or this one, but:



our two most-played lineups are both negatives, including jj's preferred starting lineup (and i guess the closer last night), which is AWFUL.

the reaves/luka/smart/ayton/rui lineup is actually our best (by a HUGE margin) among the most-used lineups.

our other best lineup has been smart/luka/rui/hayes/reaves (+31 but only 33 minutes played).

pretty much all of our best lineups are reaves/luka no lebron.

the only other positive rating is the starting lineup most of us preferred (smart/luka/lebron/reaves/ayton), but it's not as good as any of the luka/reaves lineups listed above or even really close to most of them.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?TeamID=1610612747&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=MIN

i think we know the blueprint, and i hope we are aggressive in pursuing it this summer. keep reaves, find athletes who know their role and play it well.

 

^I'd have to go back and look at the game logs and the competition and how many of those games were without LBJ. Either way, he's been a** for the most part. I didn't even include the OKC game.

Have to see how this season finishes out for him.

 

Only way this team works moving forward to the best extent possible is:

1) LeBron takes fewer shots and starts doing more dirty work out there
2) Reaves becomes the undeniable 2nd option

I hate how Reaves just gets casted aside like he isn't one of the best players at drawing fouls and getting shots that he wants. Sure, he fumbles the ball at times but LeBron's pretty one-dimensional when he's closing games. Reaves can get to his shot quicker and is more crafty with the ball. Time for LeBron to just act as a decoy...

 

he's not a winning player

paying him this offseason would be a huge mistake

 

Letting him walk for nothing, would be even a BIGGER one...

 

Obviously we can’t let a young up and comer like LeBron go

 

Austin, keep playing like this, that number you'll be asking for goes down, please.

Thx.

 

I do think that with the Luka and Austin version of the team, everyone knew their role and how they were expected to play. But I also think there is some "new season" vibes stuff that is baked into that sample size as well. Look at Ayton, for example. I think the Luka/Austin-centric offense helped him stay engaged since we were running high P&R with him at a crazy high frequency, but I also think he just came into the new season focused and willing to do dirty work stuff and that waned over time. The Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets all got off to great starts and then started to trend down a bit sometime in December. The same trend happened with us, it just also happened to coincide with LeBron being gone at the beginning and Austin going out in December (which had its own negative effects).

 

I did think about this but still feel like he ends up getting around 40.

None of it will matter if we don’t get some folks who can actually put together a complete roster. I think Bennett will help a lot. Hoping for some more outside voices who understand modern hoops.

 

His max is $41.5. I do think he gets $38-40 million, and that's fine. The bigger question to me is he a longer term fit; everybody is touting the 208 min sample size with him and Luka, but I'm not sure he's a long-term fit anymore. I'll get pushback, but idgaf. Going to see how this season plays out, though. There just isn't many options right now.

 

Yeah we’re in an interesting position but that’s where not operating with a real vision gets you.

we’ve got cap room and several first round picks though. That is enough to add a real piece and a role player.

 

This needs needs more than a real piece and a role player. They need a lot. It won't happen all this summer, but we'll add a piece that they'll sell us going into the season.

 

Oh yeah. I agree. We gotta build it brick by brick. We need to see a significant move in the right direction though.

 

Digging into these games with Reaves and Luka minus LBJ - he returned November 19th or around there. They had 10 games together I think. Remember, Luka was out with a leg contusion for 3 games until his return. They got off to a 11-4 start. When Austin was putting up numbers, in the months of October/November with Luka, 7 out of those 10 opponents are under .500 right now. Miami is 3 games over .500.

Probably the most impressive performances came against Minnesota twice on October 24th, and 29th (he played that game by himself, was game winning shot), and he led the team in assists in November against a game they had against SAS. Put up 36 against Boston the first time (in Boston) and had a really good game against Toronto where Rui had the game winning shot in the corner for 3; a game without Luka.

Outside of the Mavs game, he's hit a rough patch. His usage was higher without LBJ and Luka, and when they return, it changes the dynamic. He's a streaky shooter, and I think along with the team, he's just hit a rough patch. Kind of going back through the game logs, I think he warrants $35 - $38 million; and that's where I probably land. Lakers probably pay more, though.

 

i think it's possible he takes less than max; i just don't think people should expect it.

his "real" value is probably in the upper 30s, and quibbling about 3 million is probably not a great use of time.