Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

As someone who really only gets to see my teams when they play on the road, I 100% get that fear. Even if it's unlikely to happen, I don't want to risk it. What a memory for you.

 

My dad and one or two of my brothers will be at this game. My parents, about 80 minutes from Philly, got 5" of snow. Going to be an awesome setting for a game. I'll be back with a score projection. Spoiler: Eagles > Raiders.

 

Eagles: 63% chance to win

Philly: 24
Raiders: 19

 

You and your family be safe. Enjoy the game and be warm.

 

Raiders surrendering another long, dominant drive to open the game.

 

I won't be there I'm in Florida, but I think they'll be sensible and smart.

 

7:09 drive, 13 plays, 67 yards, TD.

 

Not a bad opening drive. 13 plays, 41 yards (aided by penalty), 6:35 off the clock. Just can't convert.

 

Two three-and-outs by the O.

 

42 plays, 75 yards. Just unimaginably bad.

 

Texans 24
Raiders 15

Houston forces TOs, doesn't allow a lot of downfield passes, and they don't allow long drives. These are, unfortunately, areas where the Raiders are likewise awful. The line on this one is currently -14.5 for Houston. As a fan, I don't want another beatdown, but, realistically, this one has no business being very close. Houston has a 71% chance to win this game.

 

Philly was supposed to be struggling on offense until they played us. They hung 31 on us. Media is saying the same things about the Houston offense too so....

 

Jeanty has looked awesome today. The OL wasn't so bad. Geno made some boneheaded plays, but he also threw two beauties. I don't even feel bad if the Raiders lose this one.

 

I was concerned because I did not want to potentially lose the #1 pick. We have the G-Men and the Chiefs. Latter looked horrific so it makes me pause.

 

That's a fair concern. The Giants are bad, and the Chiefs seem mentally done.

 

I saw an article on how things have looked different under Olson vs. Kelly, but the article had no substance. So, here's a look at some stats.

Points
Kelly: 15 (mean), 16 median
Olson: 15.5 (mean), 15.5 median
No real change.

First Downs
Kelly: 16.6 mean, 17 median
Olson 11.8 mean, 12 median
Far fewer first downs. That's a huge difference.

Total Yards
Kelly: 268 mean, 268 median
Olson: 194 mean, 192 median
Kelly's would rank 30th. Sub-200 yards is awful.

Passing Yards
Kelly: 189 mean, 190 median
Olson: 128 mean, 147 median
Another set of dreadful numbers

Rushing Yards
Kelly: 79.5 mean, 68 median
Olson: 65.5 mean, 43 median
Another dreary set, even worse under Olson

Turnovers
Kelly: 1.5 mean, 1 median
Olson 0.8 mean, 1 median
Probably a significant improvement.

Expected Points
Kelly: -6.2 mean, -5.2 median
Olson: -5.3 mean, -4 median
I'm not sure if it's the lack of TOs driving this or what, but Olson's numbers look better.

Run% of Plays
Kelly: 38% mean, ? median
Olson: 37% mean, 34% median
No significant differences here.

TOP
Kelly: 29.1 mean, ? median
Olson: 23.5 mean, 22.6 median
Kelly's offense would have been about 23rd best in the NFL here, which isn't good. Olson's is dead last.

3rd down conversions
Kelly: 36%
Olson: 32%
Kelly's 26th ranking was a bit better. Every % matters here.

Okay, so here's a quick summary. The Raiders are basically the same or worse in nearly every stat with Olson at the helm. The only areas that aren't noticeably worse are points, run%, turnovers, and expected points. But there's some context to this.

Context
Opponent W/L
Kelly: 89-79-1 53-win%
Olson: 44-17 72-win%
So, the Raiders have been playing better teams on average under Olson. In fact, the teams the Raiders have so far faced have been really, really good.

Opponent Defense Ranking - Points Allowed
Kelly: 15.9 mean, 18 median
Olson: 4 mean, 3.5 median
Olson has faced far better defenses, including the #1 and no defense ranked worse than 12.

Opponents Defense Ranking - Yards Allowed
Kelly: 15.5 mean, 13 median
Olson: 5 mean, 3.5 median
Again, Olson has faced far better defenses.

So, here's a summary of the context: the Raiders have faced awesome defenses over the past four weeks. It's worth seeing what happens over these next two weeks in terms of the season long numbers.

Takeaways:
Kelly was not good for this team.
It was good to let him go.
Olson is probably not a good OC either.
OC and DC are equally positions of need on the coaching staff.

 

Giants: 55% chance to win on neutral ground.

Giants are a 2.5-point favorite, and the over/under is 41.5.

I've got this as about as close as it could be.
Giants 23
Raiders 21