Optimism Discussion: The Laker's Sky Is Not Falling

yeah, if we don't add any salary beyond next year and lebron walks, we should be able to retain all those guys (and goodwin/knecht/bronny if we wish) and have some space left over to maybe add a couple more rotation pieces in FA next summer. failing that, we could use the extra space to to eat some short-term salary and gather draft capital.

i know everyone wants us to strike huge deals now, but we've quietly positioned ourselves to not be totally devastated when lebron walks/retires--which was always going to be a major problem.

 

Squinting through @Toklat ’s ridiculously dark purple goggles, at least until some one or more players get shipped out, whenever …. with our “assumed” no money spared organizational upgrading from deep pockets apex winner mentality Mark Walters …. I think contrary to the remaining sky is falling crew …. that we just might have the makings of a new and legit Bench Mob pulled from the guys below:

Goodwin, Vincent, LaRavia, Knecht, Vando, Thiero, Kleber, Hayes, James Jr.

Athleticism, size, decent offensive and defensive configurations.

 

it would be great for us if goodwin and knecht took steps forward this year. i feel like we're never very patient with this, but other teams often have success bringing along young guys and grooming them for bigger roles.

i guess rui and reaves are success stories for us here? but their ascents were pretty rapid, so patience wasn't really required.

 

We didn’t have Jake. Maxi or Adou available last year and I’m pretty confident Adou and Maxi will see time off the bench.

 

Yeah I think Goodwin is being slept on a bit. I don't think we can rely on him as our primary POA guy, but I hope he's part of the regular rotation. Loved his hustle and offensive rebounding in the regular season, the latter was something we'd pretty much completely punted on.

 

Sorry I'm so slow slow to respond. youth League baseball tourney...lol. We are winning easy this season.

 

I know LT and other posters have been talking about the intangible aspects of this team that could see us out perform the sum of our parts.

• We have two key young guys in contract years in Rui & Reaves.
• We have a few high level role players that are trying to re-establish their value in this league in Smart & Ayton
• We have a few pieces that finally have a healthy offseason and a full training camp in Vando & Kleber
• We have a few rotation pieces that are fighting for their place in this league in LaRavia, Gabe & Knecht
• We have Luka who is trying to prove he can be the best player in the NBA
• And lastly, we have Lebron who will want to go out with a bang and not with a whimper

Lots of our guys have really good reasons to have a strong season and I think we should just really lean into our depth this year to keep everyone healthy.

Luka (32) / Gabe (14) / Smart (2)
Reaves (30) / Smart (16) / Knecht (2)
Rui (26) / Knecht (12) / LaRavia (10)
Lebron (30) / Vando (14) / LaRavia (4)
Ayton (30) / Kleber (14) / Rui (4)

Luka (32)
Reaves (30)
Lebron (30)
Rui (30)
Ayton (30)
Smart (18)
Gabe (14)
Knecht (14)
LaRavia (14)
Kleber (14)
Vando (14)

In the playoffs tighten it up to Luka / Reaves / Rui / Lebron / Ayton with Smart / Kleber and the best wing player out of Vando, Knecht & LaRavia.

 

Luka (32) / Gabe (8) / Smart (8)
Reaves (30) / Smart (16) / Knecht (2)
Rui (26) / Knecht (10) / LaRavia (12)
Lebron (27) / Vando (9) / LaRavia (12)
Ayton (30) / Kleber (14) / Rui (4)

Basically, I think LeRavia will get more minutes than Knecht. He is a better defensive presence and we need that. If Smart is healthy, he needs more minutes. I actually think we could play AR at PG for a few minutes every game and even slide Luka to SF when the matchup is right.

 

All fair points. I do believe Lebron will want at least 30 mins a night to go and get his stats, that's important to him. Otherwise, Smart & LaRavia at 24 mins is probably smart from a defensive point of view.

 

yeah, historically when you have a lot of guys with things to prove individually, it can hurt the team, but i think the league has changed over time. the cam thomas situation is a good example of why team success is best for all of these guys as individuals. if rui's numbers look good but we lose, he'll be an mle guy at best on the market next year. if he's a vital cog in a surprisingly good team, he's going to get his 25 million.

i also agree with wino that laravia probably gets all knecht's minutes, and i'm not sure i give gabe much, either. but guys get injured, and those two will get their chances then. same with hayes, as kleber has a long history of unavailability.

but the general idea that we should limit minutes of the players to allow for more serious effort during the time they're out there is important. one thing i've hated the past few years is lebron (and AD, previously) playing huge minutes, about 20% of which involved resting on the court. this isn't productive. hopefully, jj will break the cycle of coaches using stars as security blankets to the detriment of the team. look at how carlisle played his guys all year, including the playoffs. no reason we can't do that. the clippers supposedly have this great depth; well, i think our depth is actually pretty solid, tbh. and they weren't all alive to witness the moon landing.

 

Overall, I'm bullish on the team this year which is a nice feeling to have going in to a season.

I expect we will get the best version of Luka we've seen at this point in his career and that's saying something. I think he's going to really raise the play of everyone around him.

I'm high on our offseason signings. I think all three will help and two are clear improvements on what we had last season.

Houston and the Nuggets worry me but I like our chances against pretty much any other team including the champs.

 

Good posts, good lineups. I agree with a lot of all your points, and I've been working on a set of lineups also. It was taking me a while, but your posts motivated me to finish a detailed rotation map of lineups.

I factored in some of the things we've all been talking about in various threads, such as the Lakers likely starting Luka/ Reaves/ Rui/ LeBron/ Ayton, but many of us wanting to start Smart, or at least sub him in for Rui as soon as possible. Also things like having a POA defender such as Smart or Vincent in at almost all times outside of the initial starters minutes, mixing starters and bench for the 2nd units so that there is never an all bench lineup played outside of garbage time, figuring out what lineups Vando works in (such as combos with Kleber and/or Rui but not Ayton due to shooting and spacing), etc. Here's what I came up with. Comments, critiques, changes welcome.

These are the overall minutes for competitive games. It may seem slightly high for starters, but they're mainly 26-27 years old, it's in line with or less than their recent averages, and there will be a number of games with garbage time in either direction, with the starters not playing the last few minutes, which will bring their overall minutes down. Luka in particular might look high, but he's averaged 36.5 min the past 3 seasons, with 37.5 in 2024, and he's our best player, so we want him out there. The hope is to be blowing out games and shaving 3-4 min off the starters from the end of the game, but if not, we need our best guys out there. We want to win as many games as possible in the deep and competitive West, as it would be so advantageous to somehow get a 2 or 3 seed vs being in the play in. I don't actually expect either outcome, and I'm guessing we end up in the 4 or 5 seed, but we have to try.

Overall minutes:

36 Luka
34 Reaves
32 LeBron
32 Ayton
28 Rui

24 Smart
16 Vincent
14 Vando
12 LaRavia
12 Kleber

Knecht
Bronny
Thiero
Hayes

I agree with Wino here about needing to play Smart more minutes, since he should be our best POA defender. Also with others about Knecht not deserving minutes right now. I would really like to see him get back to form and earn regular minutes again, but that remains to be seen, and there are too few minutes to go around. If he shows in training camp that he deserves them, then he'll get them back. For the deep bench, Bronny, Thiero, and Hayes can all play garbage time and when there are injuries. Maybe Bronny or Thiero could even earn regular minutes by the end of the season, but that would be optimistic. More likely next year, and even that would be great.

The depth chart below is listed two ways, because the same lineup can be viewed by either offensive role and position, or defensive role and position. 1-3 and 2-4 will switch a lot anyway.

On offense:

Luka (36), Reaves (4), Smart (4), LeBron (4)
Reaves (12), Smart (20), Vincent (16)
Rui (18), Reaves (18), LaRavia (12)
LeBron (28), Rui (10), Kleber (10)
Ayton (32), Vando (14), Kleber (2)

On defense:

Reaves (8), Smart (24), Vincent (16)
Luka (8), Reaves (26), Vando (14)
Rui (8), Luka (28), LaRavia (12)
LeBron (32), Rui (16),
Ayton (32), Kleber (12), Rui (4)

In the rotation map below, the lineups are listed by roles on offense, although their roles on defense may differ.

• It begins with the projected starters, but gets Smart in quickly, and likely closing as well.
• It always has at least 1 of Luka, LeBron, or Reaves on the floor, with the vast majority of the time having at least 2 of them on the floor.
• Including Ayton, Rui, and Smart with the Big 3, it always has at least 2 of them on the floor, with the vast majority of the time having at least 3 of them on the floor.
• We don't want Reaves or Luka defending POA for too many minutes, so it always has Smart or Vincent in at POA, outside of the starting 4 min of each half.
• It always has Ayton or Kleber at C on defense, outside of 2 small ball min per half, where Rui, LeBron, and Vando can handle the opposing small ball or backup C at the very ends of the first and third quarters.
• It always pairs Vando with 4 shooters, so that Vando can play as a C or non-shooter on offense, and a wing who can switch 1-5 on defense.
• Most lineups are very switchable from 1-3, 2-4, and 3-5.

1Q
4 Luka/Reaves/Rui/LeBron/Ayton
2 Luka/Smart/Reaves/LeBron/Ayton
2 Luka/Smart/Reaves/Rui/Ayton
2 Luka/Vincent/LeBron/Kleber/Vando
2 LeBron/Vincent/LaRavia/Rui/Vando

2Q
2 Luka/Smart/Rui/Kleber/Vando
2 Reaves/Smart/LaRavia/Rui/Ayton
2 Luka/Vincent/LeBron/Kleber/Vando
2 Reaves/Vincent/LaRavia/LeBron/Ayton
2 Luka/Smart/Reaves/Rui/Ayton
2 Luka/Smart/Reaves/LeBron/Ayton

3Q
4 Luka/Reaves/Rui/LeBron/Ayton
2 Luka/Smart/Reaves/LeBron/Ayton
2 Luka/Smart/Reaves/Rui/Ayton
2 Luka/Vincent/LeBron/Kleber/Vando
2 LeBron/Vincent/LaRavia/Rui/Vando

4Q
2 Luka/Smart/Rui/Kleber/Vando
2 Reaves/Smart/LaRavia/Rui/Ayton
2 Reaves/Vincent/LaRavia/LeBron/Kleber
2 Luka/Vincent/Reaves/Rui/Ayton
4 Luka/Smart/Reaves/LeBron/Ayton