Playoffs - Round 1: Lakers Vs. Wolves

Those were the days.

 

I agree.
Gobert doesn’t have a post game at all and Naz doesn’t spend much time down there. Randle is the one to stop, but I have confidence that JJ will be able to figure this out by game one.
The rebounding, however, will be a problem.

 

I'll say we win in 7.

Let's not lose sight of the fact that we still have a first-year head coach in his first playoff-series and made this particular group has only been together for 30 games or so. I think Minnesota is a better matchup for us than some other teams we could be facing instead, but I by no means think they're an easy matchup. Ant has a (still relatively short) track record of turning into an incredible pull-up jump shooter in the playoffs. We don't have a good physical matchup for Ant, it will probably be mostly Austin and DFS. He's too big/strong and can just shoot over Austin, and DFS doesn't have the foot speed to stay in front of him out on the perimeter. None of their best perimeter defenders (Ant, McDaniels, NAW, DiVincenzo) are great physical matches for Luka, but all of them can cause Austin problems IMO. If Austin is having a tougher time creating offense and is probably the one guarding Ant on the other end, now you start placing more offensive responsibility back on LeBron. That's fine, I expect him to look great in the playoffs with this week off and rest between games, but we want him flying around on defense like he has been recently.

The common sentiment is that we'll be able to play Gobert of the court, which is probably true, but we also won't be able to use Hayes much either IMO. Any time Hayes is out there it will be easy for Gobert to be out there, and for some of his glaring flaws as a player he's still an awesome rim protector and P&R drop big. We're going to be relying really heavily on the top 6: Luka/LeBron/Austin/Rui/DFS/Gabe. This would actually be a good series for Kleber to be available, but I doubt we see that.

But all that said, I still think we win because their lack of collective playmaking will allow our style of defense to slow them down enough. On the other end, this is a matchup Luka is very comfortable with and if they sell out to get the ball out of Luka's hands we have better collective playmaking and play finishing.

 

So outside of Bron, Luka and AR....

Who do we think needs to step up to ensure Lakers victory?

My answer is Gabe and Rui need to hit their outside shots at a high clip to keep the double team off of the big 3.

 

Rui. His 3 ball and defense against Gobert and Randle will be very important. Best case is he's hitting and can pull a big out of the paint so we have an easier time on the glass.

 

Welp he's hit them before in the playoffs and has been hitting them all year so that's a real good possibility.

 

When did Rui hit his 3s in playoffs? I'm not saying that's wrong, but I am having trouble remembering Rui ever being an impact player in the playoffs. In my mind he disappears in the post-season like clockwork.

 

He shot 48% on threes in the 2023 playoff run, but on only 2.5 attempts per game. I remember him shooting really well those playoffs but I thought it was on bigger volume.

 

Even if you put Ant at #1 in terms of best players I think this is significant mismatch for the Lakers particular of you take a look at this year's performance

Ant
Luka
Lebron
AR
Naz
Randle/Rui seem about equal to me
DFS/McDaniels/Gobert
Divencenzo
Trent
Gabe
Hayes

I like the Wolves roleplayers but man the Lakers just dominate the top end talent here

 

I think Gobert has now become underrated. He's like a great run-stuffing middle linebacker in the NFL. 20 years ago those guys were the most famous defensive players in the league, but in the modern NFL you can mitigate their impact with quick passing game, different running schemes, forcing them to play in space, etc. But even today, if the other team has a great linebacker that alone can still make it really tough to run the ball. Gobert is still one of the best rim protectors in the league. Sure, you can mitigate his impact on the court quite a bit by playing 5-out, but on the flip side he makes it really hard for you to play traditional bigs. I think the offense could really struggle in any minutes with Hayes out there because that allows Gobert to stay close to the basket.

Randle is more talented than Rui, but Rui has settled into his role nicely. Randle might win them a couple of games in this series dropping 25+ as a legit 2nd scoring option, or he might brick a bunch of threes, turn the ball over and lose them a couple of games.

 

Rui has played in 26 playoffs games in his career. He shot 33-68 from deep, which is .485 %

Last season I thought Rui was subpar in game 2 against Denver. It was a 2pt loss, so those games stand out. Other than that particular game, he's been solid ever since we got him.

 

i'll quibble a bit. first, luka is #1, but i'll grant that ant is quite good. i just think luka's injury issues made him look worse this year than normal, while ant had his best season yet.

i also agree that lebron and AR are the next best. after that, though, i think i'ts basically the rest of the wolves rotation before any of our guys.

i love DFS as much as anyone, but i think he's not as impactful as jaden mcdaniels, naz reid, gobert, and maybe even randle and ddv. there are some stat metrics that would even put NAW ahead of rui/dfs.

so:

luka/ant

lebron/AR


naz/gobert/randle/mcdaniels

ddv/rui/dfs/naw/conley



hayes/gabe/vando

iow, it's top heavy vs. balance. and as gobert said, it's also about pressing advantages. he's right that if they can find a way to make him a big plus, they can win. luka, lebron, and AR need to make them pay for playing gobert, imo. we're going to have to knock down some outside shots, which always makes me nervous.

 

Thanks for the solid back up Slick Do you like trees?

 

Depends on what kind of "trees" we are talking about.

 

“Save a tree, eat a beaver”

kind of tree?

 

ANT ain't winning you 3 games against us by himself. Maybe against Memphis he could.

 

Sweep the pups baby.

 

Picks are in

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/44625758/2025-nba-playoff-expert-picks-play-first-round-matchups



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