Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Thank you and props to the Philadelphia Eagles. LEAVE NO DOUBT!

 

Looks like Pola-Mao is back on a two-year deal.

 

Same. He's been a hard worker, and he's made some big plays.

 

Before we get to the draft and all the big FA stuff, here's a look at the roster.
MV is market value, from Spotrac.

QB
2024 Depth Chart: Minshew, AOC, Ridder
Under Contract: Minshew (13.8m), AOC (1.2m)
Own Free Agents: Ridder (made 1m)
Current Depth Chart: AOC, Minshew
Outside FAs: Mariota (MV4.2m), Darnold MV40.1m, Justin Fields MV6.4m, Russell Wilson MV38.7m
Recommendation: Bring back AOC, cut Minshew (save 6m).
Then: I'm looking for a QB who falls in the first round, a solid QB on day 2, or a bargain-priced FA. I see the wisdom in just keeping AOC and running with him, but I could also see Kelly wanting a guy like Mariota if we don't land a good QB prospect.

RB
2024 Depth Chart: White, Abdullah, McCormick, Mattison
Under Contract: White 1.3m, Spiller 1.0m, Laube 1m, Collier 1m, McAllister 1m, McCormick 1m.
Own Free Agents: Mattison, Abdullah
Current Depth Chart: White, McCormick
Outside FAs: Jordan Mason (MV1.7m)
Recommendation: I think I'd let Mattison and Abdullah both walk.
Then: Get a running back. Draft one, day two. Maybe another day 3. Kelly is going to give these guys a workout. There are a lot of solid RBs in this draft. Outside Jeanty, there's Scattebo, the two guys from Ohio State, Omarion Hampton, Kaleb Johnson, Dylan Sampson, Devin Neal, Jordan James, Brashard Smith. Just a lot of guys who can contribute.

WR
2024 Depth Chart: Meyers, Tucker, Turner, Marshall, Bachman, Keyton
Under Contract: Meyers 15m, Tucker 1.4m, Wilkerson 1.1m, Bachman 1.0m, Foreman 1m, Jackson 1m, Ramel Keyton 1m.
Own Free Agents: Marshall, Turner
Current Depth Chart: Meyers, Tucker, Bachman, Keyton
Outside FAs: I don't love any of the FA WRs. Tee Higgins (MV25m) has been injured, and his numbers may be inflated having Burrow. If Chris Godwin (MV22.5M) is recovered from an ankle injury, he's elite. Amari Cooper (MV14m) and Stefon Diggs (MV13m) (serious injury concern) are the next top rated WR FAs. A guy like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine could be an affordable addition wo bolster the middle of the pack.
Recommendations: Move on from Turner, Marshall.
Then: If an elite WR is available at 6, that's in play.

TE
Under Contract: Bowers 5.1m, Mayer 2.5m, Shorter 1m.
Own FAs: Harrison Bryant 3.3m
Ooutside FAs:
Recommendation: I respect what Bryant brings to the table, but with a healthy Mayer and Brock Bowers, I think the team can spend the money better elsewhere. I'd triple down on TEs, taking Mitchell Evans late in the draft.

OL
Under Contract: Ayedze .8m, Wagner .8m, Miller 15.7m, Parham 3.6m, James 8.8m, JPJ 2m, Putnam .8m,
Own Free Agents: Peat 2.0m, Whitehair 2.5m, Meredeith .8m
Recommendations: Meredith's Market Value is 1.9m on Spotrac. I'd do that in a heartbeat.

DI Ranking in TFL, Run Stuffs, QB Pressures
Wilkins 33.5m, Fox 1m, Laulu 1m, Agoha .8m, Manoa .8m
Free Agents: Jenkins 3m, Butler 1.8m, Carter 1m, Matthew Butler
Recommendations: I like John Jenkins, but it may be time to move on (he'll be 36). Maybe they can get him on a friendly deal for a year (MV2.1m) and re-sign Adam Butler (MV2.9M).

DE Ranking in TFL, Run Stuffs, QB Pressures
Crosby 28m, Wilson 6.8m, Gainer 1m
Free Agents: Koonce 1.2m, Robinson 1m, Snowden .8m
Recommendations: Koonce's MV of 40m over two seasons. Is it worth splurging here, bringing bak Snowden, and trying to put together a relentless pass rush? Maybe.

LB Ranking in TFL, Run Stuffs, QB Pressures
Burney 1.1m, Eichenberg 1.0m, Carter 1m, Smith 1m, Mitchell .8m, Oghoufo .8m
Free Agents: Chaisson 3.3m/MV3.mV, Masterson .9m, Spillane 3.5m/MV10.4m, Deablo 1.2m/MV7.5m, Mauga .8m
Recommendations: I think these are the toughest decisions the Raiders have to make. Committing to Spillane and Deablo cost an additional 13m. I think Chaisson is a no-brainer. I'd bring back him and Masterson. Deablo is really the one I'm not sure about.

CB Composite (passer rating when targeted on X targets)
Jones 3.2m, Bennett 1.2m, Richardson 1.2m, Isaac 1m, Kelly 1m, Devonshire .8m
Own Free Agents: Holmes 1.1m/MV1.3m, Webb 1m, Hobbs 1m/MV2.9m
Recommendation: If you can get Hobbs at 2.9m per season, I'm on board. Holmes isn't a priority, but he's worth that salary.

SAFETY
Smith 1.1m, Taylor 1m, Harper 1m
Own Free Agents: Epps 6m (MV1.8m), Moehrig 2m(MV15.7m), Pola-Mao .8m
Recommendations: You've got to pay Moehrig. And Pola-Mao at that price tag. If Epps wants to come back on a massive paycut, I consider it.

 

Apparently, Pola-Mao's contract is two years, up to $8.4m. Not so sure about that figure, but maybe it's heavily incentive-laden.

 

Michael Mayer is on the trade block. I guess it makes sense. They have Bowers, Mayer is a top pick, so his salary is already relatively high, and he's dealt with some missed time. Shame, as I think he's a complete TE and a huge boon to the team. But there are some really good TEs available in the draft, even in later rounds. I'd love the Raiders to grab another ND TE in Mitchell Evans. He's huge, and good blocker, and he has great hands. Not dynamic after the catch though.

 

Say no to Aaron Rodgers. He's been a below average QB the past two seasons he has played. And he's now ancient.

 

You figure Kelly could...

 

Crosby extended three years. Happy to hear.

 

I’ll say more tomorrow. Tired.

 

Smith is serviceable. Glad Crosby is on board BTW.

 

QB Candidate: Geno Smith

Pros
Familiarity with Carroll.
Quick adaptation.
Put in the work to have a far better second half of his career than the first.
Back-to-back-to-back winning seasons, going 27-22 as a starter since 2022.
Still has wheels. Rushed for 272 and 2 scores last season.
Elite completion % two of the past three seasons.

Cons
Smith is 35 this season.
After peaking in QBR in 2022, Smith has dropped from 63 to 60 to 54. It's not that that number is bad, but it's very average.
Slightly below average TD%, INT%, and sack% last season.
Takes too many sacks.

Thoughts: It's tough. We are paying him $31m and gave up a third rounder to land Smith. I think that's probably too steep unless they rework his contract and add a season to spread out the cap hit. Is Smith better than AOC? Probably for 2025.

Check out these adjusted passing numbers. 100 is league average. Higher is better.

adjusted passing, QB1, QB2
Y/A+ 108, 91
NY/A+ 104, 99
AY/A+ 102, 95
ANY/A+ 99, 100
Comp%+ 122, 94
TD%+ 92, 88
INT%+ 93, 112
Sack%+ 93, 122
Rate+ 104, 94
QB1 is Smith. QB2 is AOC. I believe Smith gives us the better chance of winning next season. He'll put the ball where it needs to be. And that matters.

 

QB
2024 Depth Chart: Minshew 66, AOC 62, Ridder n/a
Under Contract: Minshew (13.8m), AOC (1.2m)
Own Free Agents: Ridder (made 1m)
Current Depth Chart: AOC, Minshew
Outside FAs: Mariota (MV4.2m), Darnold MV40.1m, Justin Fields MV6.4m, Russell Wilson MV38.7m
Recommendation: Bring back AOC, cut Minshew (save 6m).
Then: I'm looking for a QB who falls in the first round, a solid QB on day 2, or a bargain-priced FA. I see the wisdom in just keeping AOC and running with him, but I could also see Kelly wanting a guy like Mariota if we don't land a good QB prospect.

New Look Depth Chart
Smith 31m, Minshew 13.8m, AOC 1.2m, Bradley 1.0m
Smith's Composite Rating, driven by 98% snap count and 82+ PFF Grade, is a 90. That's really good.

Minshew has to be on his way out. The Raiders save 3m if they release him and 9m if they can trade him. If they could trade him, even if they ate half his salary, that would still be a better move for them.

 

I’ll be back with more details tomorrow.

IN Jeremy Chinn S
Back Malcolm Koonce LB

out
Spillane
Hobbs
Moehrig