Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

AOC making some big time plays. Just missed on a pass to Mayer, one out of bounds, but a huge pass to Mayer, a falling over DPI on a jump ball to Bowers, and a rushing TD.

 

These boys are showing some fight. 14-10.

Turnovers.

 

Just like we drew it up. Three takeaways but only 10 points after three quarters. Desmond Ridder behind Center.

 

Ugly.

Mayer with a big game. Bowers sets the rookie mark for receptions by a TE. McCormick looked solid, but he might be injured.

 

Are we "in the drivers' seat" after the W? If we're aiming at the top pick, looks that way.

 

I spent way too much time on this, but here we go.

3/4 Review

QB (Composite/QBR)
Minshew 70/37.9
AOC 53/40.2
Ridder 31/31.0
-Really, none of these guys have gotten it done with any consistency, but based off QBR, this team should have more wins (3.5-4.9). This just means that fixing the QB spot won't fix the team's ailments.

RB (Yards Per Snap)(Yards Per Play)
Mattison 1.8/4.5
Abdullah 0.9/4.2
White 1.4/2.9
McCormick 2.5/5.1
-PFF is getting really stingy with their data, and I'm not going to pay $25/month for it. That means Mattison is the only one who has a Composite rating, and it's only backup worthy. So I've come up with a couple pleasures of RB effectiveness. Just to highlight what McCormick has done, Josh Jacobs this season has a 2.4 YPS and 4.8 PPP.

Mattison has been the best of the bunch for the whole run of the season, Abdullah has been okay as a third down back, and McCormick has been the best over the past few weeks. None have had a season to write home about.

WR (Availability / PRWT)
Tre Tucker 93/86.2
Meyers 88/89.9
Turner 65/53.5
Marshall 21/56.2
-This is sad. These are horrendous passer ratings. The Raiders need an upgrade at WR, even if they get an improved QB (and they must do that, too).

TE (Composite/PRWT)
Bowers 89/90.1
Mayer (N/A)/76.4
Bryant (N/A)/59.7
Bowers is legit. He's maybe the best receiving TE in the game already. PlayerProfiler has him as the second most dominant TE in football. I don't want to overhype him, but he's one of the best rookie TEs in a long time. Great to see Mayer back and contributing. Worth noting: in the last two games, Bowers and Mayer have combined for 21 receptions, 252 yards, and a TD.

OL (Compositive, Penalties, Sacks Allowed)
*Miller 87/4 penalties, 7 sacks allowed
*Parham 80/1 penalty, 3 sacks allowed
*Meredith 79/1 penalty, 0 sacks allowed
*Glaze 76/7 penalties, 3 sacks allowed
*JPJ 74/12 penalty, 2 sacks allowed
*James 65/2 penalties, 2 sacks allowed
*Whitehair 49/0 penalties, 0 sacks allowed
*Munford 46/0 penalties, 5 sacks allowed
-The good is clear. Five guys have basically risen to the top. Among them, 2 are rookies, 1 is in year 3, 1 in year 4, and one is already locked up for next year (Miller). A young line with the makings of a pretty dominant unit. The bad is also clear: the rookies have combined for 19 penalties. They'll have to make a decision about Meredith, who has earned a pay increase. He's under pay control for next season as a ERFA for 960k, I think, but they might want to splurge a bit to keep him around for a few more seasons.


The Schedule
I identified 6 games as wins, 7 as losses, and 4 as toss-ups and called the Raiders at 8-9.
I did think they'd win 3 of their last 4 games to close out the season, but that looks very unlikely now.
So, at this point, I'd have had them at 5-8. They're even worse, and I don't think they'll reach 5 wins.

 

Last post for now.

The Raiders NEED a QB upgrade. Even if AOC comes back and balls out, the value of a QB who is willing to run and also able to stay healthy cannot be overstated.
The Raiders need a WR upgrade. Another WR of Meyers's caliber might be enough.
The Raiders have decisions at RB. White, Laube, and McCormick are all under contract for next year. Tough to roll the dice on that without seeing more McCormick as White has been dreadful and Laube hasn't shown himself up to the task yet.
The OL actually looks promising.

 

This is ridiculous if true.

Raiders news: Defensive end Charles Snowden is reportedly arrested - Silver And Black Pride

 

Defense
DI Ranking in TFL, Run Stuffs, QB Pressures
Adam Butler 70 (27, 17, 21)
John Jenkins 64 (62, 63, 58)
Christian Wilkins 63 (81, 99, 58)
Jonah Laulu 55
Matthew Butler 44
-What a blow in losing Wilkins. He has still made almost as much an impact as any other defensive interior player despite missing most of the season. Would love to see him and Butler together on the field more.

DE Ranking in TFL, Run Stuffs, QB Pressures
Crosby 84 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
Wilson 66 (61, 53, 50)
Snowden 61 (74, 29, 71)
J. Robinson 39 (n/r, 98, 119)
-Crosby hasn't been quite as effective this season, but he's still been very, very good. Wilson is a nice surprise, but the position group isn't getting home as much as one would like.

LB Ranking in TFL, Run Stuffs, QB Pressures
Spillane 79 (13, 21, 20)
Deablo 61 (24, 57, 11) 123.1 PRWT
Chaisson 60 (61, 66, 61)
Masterson 40 (94.4 tackling, 88.0 PRWT)
Eichenberg 30 (92.3 tackling)
-Chaisson has been a pleasant surprise, but this is not a good unit this season. I know Spillane is doing what he's asked to do, but he needs some help Diablo hasn't been that guy.

CB Composite (passer rating when targeted on X targets)
Jones 75 (101.8 on 65)
Hobbs 69 (88.4 on 40)
Bennett 66 (67.7 on 44)
Holmes 54 (103.5 on 26)
Richardson 51 (128.1 on 28)
-Respect to Richardson for his work in pass coverage. Hobbs and Jones have been decent, but no one has had a season worth writing home about.

SAFETY
Moehrig 80 (94.0 on 45)
Pola-Mao 69 (139.2 on 30)
Harper 46 (45.4 on 5)
Epps 46 (99.8 on 13)
-Moehrig has been far and away the most consistent player of this group. Pola-Mao is going through some growing pains, missing tackles and getting a little torched.

 

Last one.

Thoughts on the D?
A. Butler*, M. Butler, and Jenkins are all FAs of various sorts. Raiders will need to sign at least one of them back.
Snowden and Robinson are FAs. Koonce* is, too.
Spillane**, Deablo*, Chaisson*, Masterson are all FAs.
Moehrig**, Hobbs**, Epps are FAs.

*Worth exploring value.
**Gotta bring 'em back.

 

Reading that Bill Belichick might want Scott Turner for his OC. That would suck for the Raiders.

The Raiders haven't fared much better in terms of scoring points with the Turners running the O, but the results have been otherwise very promising. They've improved in 1st downs, rushing yards, passing yards, total offense, and have decreased their TOs.

1st 9 games vs. last 4
1st downs: from 17.3 to 19.8
Yards: from 280 to 354
Passing Yards: from 203 to 270
Rushing Yards: from 77 to 84
Turnovers: from 2.1 to 1.5

And this is with Minshew starting a game, playing most of the next game; Ridder coming in for relief in game 2; AOC taking all the snapes in game 3; and Ridder relieving AOC after injury in game 4. So, they've had an average of 1.5 QBs per game.

 

Crosby done for the season. Makes an even tougher game.

Raiders 21
Falcons 24

 

Dream offseason...
Fire Pierce.
Hire Vrabel.*
Keep the Turners.*
Draft Sanders (incredible talent though I don't love his peripheral stuff).
Draft Cam Scattebo. I love this dude.
Draft WR. They need someone to take some pressure off Meyers.

Seems like the * will be contentious. These guys are in high demand.

 

Since Reid joined the AFC West.

CHIEFS (141-52)
Point Differential: +1257
Ten Playoffs (Plus this year)
One Coach
Four SB appearances
3 SB wins
2012: coming off a 2-14 season, they...
Hired Andy Reid. Brought in Alex Smith for 5 years, drafted Mahomes, and the rest is history.
They've gone 141-52.

BRONCOS (98-96)
Point Differential: +127
Seven coaches.
Four playoffs (Possible this year)
2 SB appearances
1 SB win
2012: In year two of Fox who teamed up with Manning. Over the next two seasons, they went 25-7. Fox left for Kubiak who went 21-11 in two years. Joseph had two years at 11-21. Fangio had three years at 19-30. Hacket and Rosburg split a season at 5-12. Payton is 17-15, and has his team on the cusp of the playoffs.
They've done it with 8 different QBS, but it looks like they've found their QB in Nix.

CHARGERS (93-101)
Point Differential: +113
Three playoffs (Possible this year)
Five coaches.
2012: Last year of Norv Turner, who had a 56-40 record. Four years of McCoy (27-37), four of Lynn (33-31), two-plus of Staley (24-24) and Giff Smith (0-3), and Harbaugh has them in the playoff hunt at 9-6. They've made the playoffs 3 times in that span.
They've done it with two QBs.

RAIDERS (77-116)
Point Differential: -955
Seven coaches.
Two playoffs
2012 was Allen's first season. He went 4-16 in year 2+ with Terrelle Pryor and Derek Carr. Sparano finished the season 3-9. Jack Del Rio and Khalil Mack added to the mix went 25-23, made it to the playoffs, and lost the "no Carr" game. The Gruden entered the picture. He went 22-31, but was at .500 over his final 2+ seasons. Bisaccia finished the season 7-5, and the Raiders lost the WC game. McDaniels had his 1+ season, going 9-16, marking the end of Carr in silver and black. Pierce took over and has gone 7-16.
They've done this with four QBs, dominated by Derek Carr.

 

Pola-Mao first Raider to force two fumbles in a game since Charles Woodson. Added 11 tackles.

Moehrig: 6 tackles, a fumble recovery, a pass defended, and the game sealing tackle.

Abdullah: 7-38 and a TD on the ground, 5-47 through the air. Added 28 on punt returns. His best game since 2016.

Bowers 11-99, setting records all day and working his way back to the ball when things broke down.

AOC the 37.7 QBR and 82.9 RTG are pedestrian, but he threw for 257 yards and ran for 12 (career high). He also kept plays alive and wasn't sacked after the first quarter. This was a fun AOC to watch. O'Connell got his first Game Winning Drive of the season and first 4th Quarter Comeback of his career.

 

...and now with the 6th pick in the 2025 Draft, the Las Vegas Raiders select