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Optimism Discussion: The Laker's Sky Is Not Falling

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by therealdeal, Jun 20, 2016.

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Pioneer10 - Lakers All Star -

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Wino said: ↑

Honestly, even if we finish off playing at the current level for the rest of the season, I would be happy to see the Lakers move on from him. I do not think he is a good head coach. Great assistant coach but he took WAY too long to figure out his rotations and just watch, when Cam and Rando are back, he is gonna misuse them and mess the rotations up. I doubt I will ever trust him anymore. I liked Luke better than him.
Click to expand...

A good coach maximizes players strength and minimizes weakness either by lineups or the scheme.
Ham seems to be able to to do the right thing (I think in each series he made good adjustments) but his initial instincts are poor or just bizarre at times.

-did a great job in the GS series countering Kerr's moves but then kept the same lineup for Denver when the forum was screaming that they were too big. Predictably they came out super flat and basically set the stage for the whole series

-I'm not a JHS fan but when he got minutes, he played as a spot up shooter which is the worst part of his skillset.

-Prince is a very good bench player but it took 1/2 season to move him to the bench.

-Going with drop coverage instead of switch coverage when the Lakers have guys like Wood and Cam/Vando/Rui who clearly are better at switching vs playing drop

-the whole 3 guard lineups messes he gets himself into

Pioneer10, Feb 15, 2024

#10161

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lakerjones said: ↑

As I said, I think we conservatively would have won at least 5 more games this season with the right rotations - meaning Rui starting or Vando if/when healthy, and Dlo starting not coming off the bench. And certainly never the five forwards lineup!!!

Ham sank our ship right off the bat with the Prince insertion. The fact that it took nearly 50 games to correct it was asinine. All the data was there to look at. And more importantly than any numbers you could see the chemistry of the team was just totally disrupted by his experimentation. Big Game James actually pointed it out last night on the play by play. He said the biggest reason you are seeing the resurrection of the team is because of the familiarity of this lineup with Rui in it, pointing out the chemistry of last year. He said all the nonsense with the weird lineups screwed us up much of the season and that is just straight up true.

With even five more wins we would be in fifth place in the West and not facing this insane uphill battle yet again. It would have avoided a lot of unnecessary stress if Ham had simply started Rui from the beginning of the season since Vando was unavailable. That would have provided obvious stability and we could have continued where we left off instead of the confusion that's been sewn throughout. Sure, Rui missed some time due to injury, but not that much (14 games total in two separate stretches). If we had started the right way we could have offset that better.
Click to expand...

Yeah we pretty much threw away our biggest advantage compared with last year. Continuity of a group that plays well together. And Ham completely blew it, just to solve it around the time we solved last year's problem too. I can only imagine it's on purpose.

Is it because last year we got WCF so we repeat the formula?
Is it to keep guys in check and not let complacency hit the group?

Maybe it's some Zen Master stuff we don't get

pika1708, Feb 15, 2024

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pika1708 said: ↑

Maybe it's some Zen Master stuff we don't get
Click to expand...

i feel VERY confident it is not this.

i think he really just overthought the situation and overreacted to NOT winning the title instead of focusing on how we won 70% of our games post-deadline.

abeer3, Feb 16, 2024

#10163

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Even the best soap operas have fewer twists and turns than this Los Angeles Lakers season.

At times, the Lakers have resembled a group destined for an early offseason and a Play-In Tournament loss. At other times, they’ve looked like the group that made the Western Conference finals last season, with the potential to make another deep playoff run depending on how the West bracket shakes out. And that’s to say nothing of off-court matters, from endless trade rumors to hourglass emoji tweets to perpetual palace intrigue.

Recently, the Lakers have resembled their best selves, though, winning six of their seven games entering the All-Star break. Since The Athletic surfaced concerns about coach Darvin Ham’s standing in the locker room in early January, the group is 13-7 — the fifth-best record in the West behind the LA Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves.

That success is legitimate and, more importantly, sustainable, according to one of the most important voices in the locker room.

“Yeah,” Anthony Davis told reporters in Salt Lake City when asked if this is who the Lakers are. “Not what we can be, but it’s who we are. … We’re starting to establish that we’re going to be a fast-paced team, a team that likes to get into the paint, get to the line. But also be tenacious on the defensive end. (We’re) creating that identity for what we have to be moving forward.

“We can’t be coming back from All-Star and (say) ‘All right, what type of team are we? This is what we have to be.’ This is who we are. And we’ve got to make sure how we’re playing as of late, the past two, three, four weeks, keeping that identity and carrying it over into post-All-Star.”

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the Lakers (30-26). They’re still ninth in the unforgiving West despite racking up wins lately. Davis and LeBron James have been largely healthy but have both suffered notable injuries in each of the past three seasons. Health has been an issue all season — and remains an issue with multiple rotation players still out. Ham has struggled to push the right lineup and rotation buttons. LA will likely have to go through the Play-In to make the playoffs, a path they overcame to make the West finals last season but is undoubtedly difficult.

But despite those reasons to doubt them, there is plenty to be optimistic about as well. Here are five reasons to believe in the Lakers.

1. The new starting lineup
It took longer than expected — and frankly, longer than it should have — but the Lakers have found something with their starting lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, James and Davis.

Through 10 games and 87 minutes, the Lakers have outscored opponents by 20 points with that unit, tied for the best mark among the eight Laker lineups that have played 50 or more minutes. They are 8-2 in the games that unit plays together and 5-0 with them as starters. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Lakers have beaten opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions, with a good offense (74th percentile) and a middling defense (52nd percentile).

The shot profile with the lineup is excellent: They attempt 48 percent of their shots at the rim, which is in the 99th percentile of all lineups, according to Cleaning The Glass. Additionally, 12.1 percent of their shot attempts are corner 3s, which ranks in the 82nd percentile of lineups. With two superstars, four quality passers (Davis’ improved court vision is real) and five players who can attack from all three areas of the floor, it’s an incredibly challenging lineup to defend.

Perimeter defense is an obvious limitation. Teams target Russell and Reaves defensively, trying to create mismatches in isolation and power through them. Hachimura’s frame is better suited to defend fours and fives than twos and threes. He can hold his own in some matchups, but quicker and more athletic wings give him trouble, as do players who are active off the ball and move well around screens. But as evidenced by the Lakers’ 138-122 thumping of the New Orleans Pelicans last Friday, their collective offense with their new starting unit is overwhelming enough to thrive against most opponents.

Jarred Vanderbilt’s potential return from a right foot injury is an interesting wrinkle. The Lakers were planning on starting him in the Feb. 1 Boston matchup before James and Davis were ruled out, according to team sources. (Vanderbilt ended up starting anyway without the normal starters and was injured during the game.) That said, by the time he’d likely return — sometime in March, at the earliest — the Lakers would already have played a dozen or so more games with their new starters. Hachimura held up better than Vanderbilt in the 2023 playoffs anyway, though he was played off the floor in the second-round series against Golden State.

Hachimura is the Lakers’ fifth-best player behind the other four starters. As reductive as it seems, playing your best players more minutes and together raises a team’s ceiling, even if their fit is imperfect. He gives the starting frontcourt a tough, physically imposing identity. He mashes mismatches and is active on the glass. He can be too narrow-minded in trying to generate his own offense, but that can have benefits as long as it’s kept in check. Using Hachimura at the three, and playing larger in general, reinforces the identity Davis laid out.

2. LeBron and AD
This season, James and Davis are collectively the healthiest they’ve been since the 2019-20 season. By this point in the previous three seasons, one or both had suffered a major injury that kept them out for at least several weeks. That could mean something is bound to go wrong soon. Or, this could be the new normal, at least for this season.

Davis has been one of the 10 best players in the NBA this season. He should be getting a stronger look for Defensive Player of the Year. James has been slightly below Davis’ nightly consistency, but he remains an unguardable freight train in transition, on downhill drives and off cuts. When James heats up from the perimeter, he’s still capable of swinging a quarter, half or game. When engaged defensively, he’s still a help-side savant and chase-down menace.

Five years into their partnership, Davis and James remain arguably the best duo in the league. At worst, they’re second or third. Being bullish on the Lakers means believing James and Davis can stay healthy and remain at their All-NBA levels. If they can, Los Angeles will have two of the three best players in most playoff series and the two best players in some matchups. That is what makes the Lakers the type of opponent most higher seeds want to avoid.

3. The Dinwiddie addition
Spencer Dinwiddie has fit in well through two games, averaging 8.0 points, 5.5 assists and 2.0 steals in 29.5 minutes. He’s already shown a nice chemistry with his teammates as he figures out the tenets of the offense and the spots they like the ball.

As Dinwiddie becomes more comfortable, he should amass a larger role within the offense. He’s deferred too often, but that’s a positive sign in that he’s trying to make his best first impression. He’ll always be behind James, Davis, Russell, Reaves and likely Hachimura in the pecking order, but the Lakers can use another weapon to stabilize lineups with at least three scorers at all times. They also needed a backup point guard with Gabe Vincent still out after arthroscopic knee surgery; his return this season is still up in the air.

Expectations are generally low for buyout players, at least internally, but Dinwiddie just has to be a solid backup guard. If he can just be a useful rotation player, which seems reasonable based on his track record and his first couple of games, it would be a win for the Lakers. The fact that they added such a player for a minimal cost changes the tenor around their inactivity at the deadline.

4. Reinforcements are on the way
The All-Star break couldn’t have come at a better time for the Lakers.

They have four injured players — Vanderbilt, Vincent, Max Christie and Cam Reddish — set to be re-evaluated after the break. Reddish (ankle) and Christie (ankle) expected back soon, if not immediately.

There is uncertainty regarding Vincent and Vanderbilt. As The Athletic previously reported, there is some internal pessimism about the chances of Vanderbilt staving off season-ending surgery and returning this season. Vincent has had a couple of setbacks after his initial knee injury, which led him to undergo surgery. The Lakers have an incentive to slow-play the returns of both players — in addition to their general duty to protect them from reinjury — as both are signed for multiple seasons. Dinwiddie is Vincent insurance, to an extent. There wasn’t a player available on the trade or buyout market who could replace Vanderbilt.

Still, the Lakers’ perimeter defense has been decimated recently, and they’ve found ways to not only stay afloat but thrive. Christie and Reddish will add much-needed elements of point-of-attack defense, switchability, defensive rebounding, spot-up shooting, athleticism and energy.

5. The upcoming home slate
Seven of the Lakers’ next 10 games are at home, where they’re 19-9 this season — the fifth-best home record in the West. March is a time when the Lakers can pad their record, with nine of their 14 games in Los Angeles. Of course, the same was true in January, when the Lakers went 7-8.

To be clear: The games are going to be difficult. The Lakers host Denver, Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Golden State and Philadelphia in March. But given LA’s home success, and its recent play, it’s feasible the Lakers they go at least .500 against the upcoming A-level competition, as they showed in January with wins over the Clippers, Dallas and Oklahoma City. Several players — Russell, Vanderbilt, Reddish, Christie and Christian Wood — play better at home statistically. (Reaves, Hachimura and Taurean Prince play better on the road, interestingly.)

Los Angeles needs to make up ground in the standings over the next few weeks. The quickest and most effective way is to beat the teams above them in head-to-head matchups. But another way is to beef up on home wins. LA will likely need to do both to ascend into the No. 6 or No. 7 seed (the Pelicans are currently sixth, 3 1/2 games ahead of the LA). That feels like an attainable goal if the Lakers stay relatively healthy and continue their recent play.
Click to expand...

JSM, Feb 16, 2024

#10164

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Entitlement + crap coach = 2024 Lakers...
I see a light in the tunnel though

Kenzo, Feb 17, 2024

#10165
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Kenzo said: ↑

Entitlement + crap coach = 2024 Lakers...
I see a light in the tunnel though
Click to expand...

Is that because Ham's dome is a reflective surface?

JSM, Feb 17, 2024

#10166

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Old school moment I marked out for…

KareemtheGreat33, Feb 22, 2024

#10167

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KareemtheGreat33 said: ↑

Old school moment I marked out for…
Click to expand...

There's that memory again!

LTLakerFan, Feb 22, 2024

#10168

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Easy blowout win even with no LeBron .
Lakers 8-2 in last games vs GS

KuzmoBall17, Feb 22, 2024

#10169
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KuzmoBall17 said: ↑

Easy blowout win even with no LeBron .
Lakers 8-2 in last games vs GS
Click to expand...

About that

Cookie, Feb 22, 2024

#10170

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This is helpful. No Beal or Gordon.

Last edited: Feb 25, 2024

JSM, Feb 25, 2024

#10171

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JSM, Feb 29, 2024

#10172

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Since the Win in Boston, Lakers have put a decent run together. Lost a couple they should've won, but are still 7-3 over their last 10.
If we can keep up a .600+ pace for the rest of the Season, do you think that is enough to get us out of the Play In..?

LakerFanIam, Feb 29, 2024

#10173
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LakerFanIam said: ↑

Since the Win in Boston, Lakers have put a decent run together. Lost a couple they should've won, but are still 7-3 over their last 10.
If we can keep up a .600+ pace for the rest of the Season, do you think that is enough to get us out of the Play In..?
Click to expand...

Not that I can see. At a .600 pace that gets us to 45 wins. At their current paces of winning for our opponents GS and Dallas are due to win 50 games and 52 respectively. NO and Suns about 47 and 48 games. The only one we might leapfrog right now is Sacto which is only .400 over the last 10 games. That puts them about 42 wins. If we play .700 ball as we are currently we might also be able to leap over NO, not sure who owns the tie breaker there. It's going to be a real dogfight down the stretch to see who can climb out but at the moment my money is probably on Dallas and GS getting out and us hopefully moving up to the 8th or with any luck from the competition maybe 7th.

lakerjones, Feb 29, 2024

#10174

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This is the most key stretch of our entire season coming up...

We basically have NO b2b's until 3/26 and 3/27 where we play Milwaukee and Memphis, so nearly a MONTH of no b2b's is HUGE for a team that has a couple of older guys (cough LeBron cough) and btw, we're in LA for this ENTIRE MONTH, which means a lot of practice time together to clean up stuff.,

Only issue is...this is also our toughest stretch...playing all of the top teams at home...

we got,..

vs washington
vs denver
vs okc
vs sacramento
vs milwaukee
vs minnesota
@ sacramento
vs golden state
vs atlanta
vs philly
vs Indiana
@milwaukee
@memphis
@indiana
@brooklyn
@toronto
@washington
vs cleveland
vs minnesota
vs golden state
@memphis
@new orleans

I think we'll be favored in following home games:

vs washington
vs golden state 2x
vs atlanta
vs Indiana
vs Philly (if they're without Embiid)

We'll be favored in the following away games:
@memphis 2x
@brooklyn
@toronto
@washington

That leaves us with 11 games that we should win....which would put us at 43-39. That's probably good enough for the play-in, but probably gonna land us in the 10th spot...which would be really bad.

I would say that a couple of those games we're favored in could honestly go either way (golden state 2x, indiana, philly)...so thats 4 games that are kind of toss-ups imo...we really have zero margin for error going down the stretch here. This 6 game homestand coming up, at minimum, we need to go 3-3. That roadie in Sacramento is a scheduled loss, so after we come back home, we need to go probably 4-0 against warriors hawks sixers and pacers. That would put us at 7-4 over this next 11 game stretch...putting us at 39-32 going into a stretch where 8 of our last 11 are on the road...can we go 6-5 over that stretch? maybe 7-4 again? It'll put us at around 45-46 wins...not sure if that's good enough to avoid the play-in but it looks like this year you'll need 50 wins to avoid the play-in (west is STACKED unfortunately).

fabfourlakers, Feb 29, 2024

#10175

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we gettin' 10th.

abeer3, Feb 29, 2024

#10176
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Imagine we win both play-in games as a 10th seed and then play OKC 1st round and go Miami Heat on everyone lol

fabfourlakers, Feb 29, 2024

#10177
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What universe are we in? Wild stat

JSM, Mar 9, 2024

#10178

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High level trolling. Top notch.

JSM, Mar 9, 2024

#10179

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JSM said: ↑

What universe are we in? Wild stat
Click to expand...

That's insane lol

We gotta get at least top 8, if we get that, sky is the limit

pika1708, Mar 9, 2024

#10180

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