Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Pretty crazy about Burrow. And wild about Johnson, but I was noticing he wasn't getting reps and was inactive last game.

 

Teamer coming back.

 

My view on Carr vs. Jimmy G was this: they're close. When G is healthy, he's a little better. But he's often not healthy. The move away from Carr offered a way to free up money and invest elsewhere. The Raiders did that. Jimmy G's average salary is about $10m less per season than Carr's under their current contracts, and the Raiders can escape more with Jimmy G injuries. I like the move, still, even if Jimmy G isn't playing.

So, now it's time for a similarly nuanced take on Jimmy G vs. AOC.

Part 1: PFF DATA
Jimmy G
168 attempts
1205 yards
7 TD
9 INT
65.6 PFF

Aidan O'Connell
104 attempts
675 yards
2 TD
3 INT
47.9 PFF

-AOC has made nice strides since a disastrous first half, way back when, but he still trails behind Jimmy G in basically all these areas. I will say that his INT% is massively better than Jimmy G's.

Part 2: PlayerProfiler Data
DEEP BALLS
AOC 8 (on 104)
JG 11 (on 147)
-AOC is averaging slightly more downfield throws than JG. AOC would throw 38.5 per 500 throws at his current rate. JG would throw 37.4. AOC also threw only 3 in his first 52 attempts but 5 in his last 52. Nice job pushing the ball.

RED ZONE
AOC 18 attempts, 77.8% completions
JG 21, 57.1%
-AOC has a significantly higher % of his attempts (17%) in the red zone than JG (12.5%). He's hitting on way more of them, too. Making the red zone throws count.

MONEY THROWS
AOC 3
JG 2
-This is huge. One money throw per 35 passes vs. 1 per 84? AOC is "dropping dimes," as the kids say.

DANGER PLAYS
AOC 10
JG 9
-No surprise here. A couple of JG's INTs were not on him, and AOC is a rookie. O'Connell has cleaned it up of late.

INTERCEPTABLE PASSES
AOC 6
JG 8
-Same story as above.

QBR
JG 35.2
AOC 22.1
-This has to be put in perspective. These numbers are bad. But after having a single digit QBR, AOC is closing the gap between him and Jimmy G.

Thoughts
I'm actually not sure that Jimmy G is much better than AOC right now. There are two factors driving this. One of them is the status of Garoppolo. He really hasn't seemed healthy all year, except for possibly in the first game of the season. I don't know if it's blows to the head, lingering effects of a foot issue affecting his delivery or what. The other comes from AOC. He has been a passable NFL QB since that dreaded first half. I'm 100% on board with O'Connell for the remainder of the season, for a variety of reasons. But one of them is just that he's giving the team a decent chance of winning games, and he's improving. We've already seen what Hoyer and Garoppolo have to offer. Neither is obviously taking us to the playoffs.

 

O'Connell is not the most nimble runner and more of a pocket passer. Need to be protected better but when he is can be very accurate. Has a stronger arm than Garoppolo when throwing downfield.

 

I think that’s right.

 

Big names missing today...

Kolton Miller
Grasu
Burney
Byron Young
Nesta Silvera

 

First drive - nice big play, then a big penalty. Then a near disaster. Punt.

 

Costly penalties on both drives. One forced a punt. The other makes a FG the only possibility. Raiders 3-0.

 

Another huge penalty. Bennett holds, giving Miami a first down on a play Koonce had come up with a sack. Would have forced a punt.

 

AOC on a bomb to Adams. Beautiful throw.

 

Respect that fourth down stand in the red zone by the LV D.

But a really bad fail on 2nd down for the Raiders forces a 3 and out. Now a TD from Miami has the Raiders in a hole 14-10 with 2-3 minutes left in the half.

 

Raiders force another TO, put some points on the board. 14-13 with a few ticks left before half.

 

Winning the TO game, big time, but not making much of it. Three TOs, 6 points.

 

Encouraging game. D played well. Aoc had some big plays and some bad ones. Line has got to get the run game going.

 

Agree. Not into moral victories but we did NOT get blown out like most predicted...

 

Update.

Team Success
The Raiders are 5-6. That's third in the AFC West.
There are 12 teams with a worse record.
They're currently 12th in the playoff hunt.

Digging in...
Their -40 point differential is better than only 9 teams in the league.
Only 4 teams worse are in the AFC.
That would put them well outside the playoffs.
Their Pythagorean Wins are currently 4.2, projecting to 6.5 wins on the season.
Since they've already won 5, that projects to 2- the rest of the way. That's 7 wins.
A 7-win team is definitely not making the playoffs.
Projected Wins by PD: 7.3

QB Play
AOC's QBR is about 21. That means that the team will win roughly 21% of games with him starting.
That would be 1.3 more wins, for a final record of 6-11 or 7-10. Again, well outside the playoffs.
But he has been at about 43 the past three starts. That projects to 2.5 wins the rest of the way.
That would be 7-8 wins. Neither record gives the Raiders much of a shot at the playoffs.
Projected Wins QBR: 7.5

Trends
Finally, if we chuck out the first two games of the season, the Raiders are...
4-5, with a point differential of -13.
That's much more favorable football, and the team would trend to about 2.7 more wins.
That's 7.7 wins
Projected Wins TREND: 7.7

Final Thoughts?
7.5 wins.

Things are converging on about 7.5 wins with the squad as currently constructed.

Reasons for hope? Jacobs has 87 touches, 374 yards, and 3 TDs from scrimmage over the last four. After forcing 0 TO through 3 games, the Raiders' D forced 5 in the next four games and 9 in the past four! Despite the INTs, O'Connell has done some good things, posting a career high in passer rating (90.2) in week 9, earning a game-winning drive in week 10, and throwing for a career high 271 yards in week 11.
Reasons to doubt? The Raiders have a tough upcoming schedule. Only one team (the 4-6 Chargers) have a sub-.500 record.

A win is so huge this week. Given the likely outcomes of other games, LV would rise to a tie for 2nd in the division (they'd hold tiebreaker??) and 9th in the playoff hunt.

 

Checking in on...Rookies:

OFFENSE
Aidan O'Connell is seeing far more snaps than most of us anticipated. The results are a mixed bag, as would be expected with a rookie QB. AOC has delivered a value of 57, composed of a 64% availability and a 51 performance. He has been about adequate. He has the third most passing yards in the rookie class, but he also has the second most INTs. There's reason to hope he'll continue to improve as the season continues.

Michael Mayer has likewise had some rough spots, particularly in the blocking game where he has been whistled for a few holding calls. As a receiver, he has been solid. His first four games saw a total of 1 reception and 2 yards (.25/.5 average). His next four saw him grab 10 passes for 146 yards (2.5/37.75). In his last three, he has 9 receptions for 76 yards and his first TD (3/25.25). This recent surge has pushed him to the fourth most receptions for a rookie TE, but that's not quite enough from the third TE taken in the draft.

Tre Tucker might be the most pleasant surprise among rookies on offense for LV. With a 51 availability score and 63 performance, he has been an adequate WR. Like most rookies, he has improved as the season has progressed. He had a total of 50 yards from scrimmage through four games (12.5 per game), before stepping up to 78 over the next three (26.0 per game). In the last three, he has averaged 31.7. He has been a nice deep threat and speed sweep threat, too.

DEFENSE
Tyree Wilson couldn't have gotten off to a slower start. Widely panned through two games, he has been better of late. His 66 availability score couples with a 41 performance score. He has 5 pressures, 1.5 sacks, and all 3 of his QB Hits have come in the past five games.

Byron Young is a name we haven't heard much this season. The 70th overall pick has appeared on just 99 snaps on defense, and he has't been on the field in a month. His 42 overall rating is a big disappointment as are hs 4 tackles, the only impact he has made so far.

Jakorian Bennett has been on the field for 322 snaps, helping him to a 50 overall rating. He has 23 tackles but has allowed a passer rating of just over 102. His big problem has been just what you'd expect from a rookie DB - PIs and holding. He has been whistled for four penalties for 43 yards on the season.

Christopher Smith has appeared on 100 special teams snaps and none on defense. That's not great for a 170th overall pick, but it's not a complete failure.

Amari Burney didn't see the field until 10/30, but he has logged 78 defensive snaps since then, allowing 4-4 passing and 34 yards against him. That's good for a 49 performance score and 34 availability. A 41 overall rating isn't good, but it's a promising sign from a 203rd pick.

Nesta Jade Silvera has appeared in two games, has taken 24 snaps, and has 2 stops. That's good for a 29 overall rating. I don't want to say he hasn't been needed, but the strong play of John Jenkins has probably made it easier to bring this rookie along slowly.

THOUGHTS
There's a lot of reason to be hopeful for some of these players, but we seem to be staring at another disappointing rookie season from a draft crop.

 

What do you gents think?

Chiefs 7-3
Broncos 5-5
Raiders 5-6
Chargers 4-6

Chiefs travel to LV to face the Raiders. I think it will be closer than the 9.5 point spread I'm seeing, but if the Raiders can't score more than they've been trending, this will be a loss. The Raiders have to get on the board, with TDs, early. Chiefs, 24-17.

The Browns will be visiting Denver at about the same time the Raiders and Chiefs are duking it out. Denver is actually the favorite here (-2). The Browns won't find it easy against a resurgent Denver team, especially with a rookie QB under center, but I think they'll pull it out, 24-21.

The Chargers host the Ravens in the late game tonight. I have the same score here, Ravens 24-21. The Ravens are a 3-point favorite, and I think they'll meet that.

 

Couldn't have started better, but that missed FG could be massive. That would have been 17 points in the first half.

Chiefs driving before half, getting the ball to start the third, and have all the momentum right now.

 

Roderic Teamer arrested for DUI early today. I'd send him packing. Absolutely mind-blowingly stupid decision.