2019/20 Players' Transactions: Breaking News , Trades, Free Agents, And Rumors

I doubt Felton actually FEELS the barbs through all insulation.

 

Long post coming...Short version: when he's on the court - MASSIVE upside. But he's often not on the court.

I was in favor of giving Noel a pretty hefty contract last time around - like 15m a year. Some will laugh at that, but whatever. Maybe I was wrong, but maybe I nailed his future value...

He's 25, played in 77 games last year, which is good, but his overall durability is a big, big question. Since playing 4300 minutes in his first two seasons, he has logged just 2550 over the last three, while missing at least 30 games in two of three seasons. There are BIG durability concerns here.

I like everything else about him. He's not a good scorer, but he's efficient. He's not a good FT shooter, but he's better than a lot of bigs and is coming off his three best seasons in a row, he rebounds at a good rate, but he steals and blocks at pretty good to exceptional rate. He also fouls like a fiend, but whatever.

If he's best suited to a conservative approach of 15 MPG, then his value is, of course, capped, but he picked up .198 WS/48, which is insane, and his DBPM has been amazing every year in the league.

Here are my measures: his durability (I was calling it resiliency, but I think durability does a better job) was 59%, 55% his first two seasons, then it tanked - to 43%, 30%, and was at 45% last year. This means he's available for about 30-59% of the time you want him on the court ideally.

His Scoring Efficiency has been between 4.76 (yikes for a big) and 5.73, and it was 5.31 last year. That's not bad, but it's not especially good. He's a high percentage shooter who isn't especially dynamic.

His Passing Efficiency has been between 1.96 and 2.33. Under 2 isn't desirable, even for a big, but 2.33 is pretty good for a big. Overall, he hovers around 2.00, which suggests he's not a very good passer.

His Hustle Efficiency hasn't been below 3.72, which is good for a big and excellent for the NBA. It has been as high as 4.31 (last season), which is absurdly good. He does A LOT of good - offensive boards, blocks, steals - and a lot of bad - turnovers and PFs. But he does so many good things that they outweigh those bad (last year, his rate of good to bad was about 4:3; he did a good thing every 55 seconds on the court).

His positional efficiency was 82 as a rookie (good, but only decent for a big), then 86, then 91. Then it dipped to 79 before rebounding to 95 last year. 80+ is good player for those minutes and that role. 90+ is really good, and you start wondering whether the player needs more time on the court.

I think the market is low enough on Noel that you could - and should - sign him longterm.

DRPM in the NBA
2018-19: Gobert #1, Ed Davis #2, Nerlens Noel #3
2017-18: Davis #26, Noel #29
2016-17: Noel #28
2015-16: Davis #26, Noel #34
2014-15: Noel #19

He's one of the top 34 most impactful defenders in each of the past five seasons. Grab him.