The Official Tank Thread - 2019 Edition

This is true. I also remember seeing a post here one of the past few summers tracking draft picks and the correlation between being an all-star, a starter, a flop, etc... would be nice to dig that up so i have something else to stare at until june...

 

10th pick has been good to us before, Andrew Bynum

 

eddie jones... could be an instant classic!

 

see history, two of my fave Lakers picked 10th

 

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

it's a few years old, but I think the general findings are about the same to my eye.

in short: #1 pick is the only sure bet, and it's not even 100% sure. 2-5 tends to yield at least an nba player. big drop at 6 for whatever reason, and another big drop at 11 for whatever reason.

though I would treat this year's draft as if the cut happens earlier, given how haphazard the mocks have been to date.

so...10th, 12th, meh. the likelihood of hitting is low. i do like our chances given our scouting department's success over time, though.

 

great, thanks! just nice to see some data every now and then...

 

i like to post it to remind people how silly it is that draft picks hold such high trade value. if you can move, say, a #4 pick for an established non-declining allstar, you should do that yesterday.

 

I think the Lakers look at it like this if it's not Zion it's going to be packaged for an all Star

 

oh i absolutely agree. especially given the context of our organization over the past 5 years, im numb to the concept of draft picks turning things around for us...

 

Looks like we're locked in at 10th unless Pelicans or Grizzlies win out.

Small chance that Grizzlies actually pull this off...they have Mavs twice, Pistons and Warriors (could be resting for their last game if they have #1 seed wrapped up, as DEN has Portland 2x and @Utah as potential losses)

Pels have @PHX, @SAC and GS left so they're likely not going to win out.

We own the tiebreaker on WAS due to having a better conference record so it won't matter if they lose out.

We also own the tiebreaker on DAL as we won the season series 3-1 so them winning out won't matter either.

It's just Grizzlies and Pels now...I think Minny loses out too but they have the tiebreaker against us luckily....

Charlotte is still in the mix for playoffs so I think they will finish above us regardless.

If I were a betting man though...we probably stay at 10th...my hope is the Grizzlies somehow get to 9th so their pick conveys to the C Bags and now the C Bags will have all 4 of their precious picks in the SAME draft and suddenly, 4 picks in the same draft with none of them being top 5 is NOT "war chest of picks"...and C Bags will either have to pick for the Pelicans without knowing if Kyrie is staying OR pick for themselves and have 4 rookies coming onto the squad next year!!!!

 

Yeah but that's the problem for the C Bags...they don't know if Kyrie is re-signing yet...they won't know until AFTER the draft...which means they'll have to either gamble and pick for the Pels OR pick for themselves (no guarantee Pels will value the same players) and have to potentially roster 4 rookies.

9th, 14th, 20th, 22nd picks in a top heavy draft class? Trust me Ainge is not going to be happy about that. Obviously, if Memphis somehow wins out and we lose out...we can go to 9th and they'll go to 10th...then at least our pick will be higher than theirs...and maybe we can even move up in the draft if we give up a future first round pick with the 9th pick and jump to the top 3?

 

Nice breakdown fab4!

The ace in the hole remains that AD's camp clearly does not want him long-term in Boston. By default, that has Boston having to overcome a rental aspect while offering a treasure trove to peak the Pels interest.

Add to that all the moving pieces: Horford can opt out. Hayward would be a salary commitment for a cash strapped franchise like the Pels. Seeing how the cbags don't have cap space, a package of just Smart, Tatum, Jaylen and picks isn't enough outgoing salary to salary match and bring back AD.

I just don't see how Boston gets it done. And even if it gets done, AD and Ky will for sure opt out next summer to get more money (Ky becomes a 35% max player next summer, while AD opts out his 25% deal to become a 30% max player). And the cbags will just have to go through all the drama again about whether both dudes will stay or not.

 

Guys are playing with some pride and for their next contract. Luke’s actually rewarding their hard work with minutes.

 

Pride?

 

Luke not LeCoach?

 

i'd say its a mix of no more pressure to win, the fact that the guys out there are all playing with their NBA futures on the line, and that opposing teams that have already clinched playoff spots have taken their play down a level to preserve energy

 

yeah, i feel like this happens every year. lots of headscratching wins for bad teams. part of it is that tanking has become so commonplace that any win feels weird, but it's also the reasons others mentioned. it's much about better teams letting off the gas as it is about the bad teams playing without pressure, imo.

sucks that memphis lost to dallas in OT. had they won, i think there was a good chance they convey their pick to boston (which boston DOES NOT want). bummer.