LABron James Discussion: The Final Year?

Closest we can do...

Leonard had a 15-game stretch were Lowry was mostly out, missing nearly all of them. In those, here were Leonard's numbers:
29.7 PPG
2.9 APG
7.3 RPG
51.7% FGs

Durant had an 11-game stretch without Curry mostly.
33.7 PPG
6.1 APG
8.5 RPG
47.9% FGs

 

I did this quick(ish):

There are a lot of moving pieces here. Let's go with a few scenarios.

1. MPG
Harden plays 37.3 MPG this season. Durant plays 35.2. If we simply increase Durant's minutes to equal Harden's, we'd get:
Points: 27.0 > 28.6
Assists: 5.7 > 6.0

2. USG%
Harden's USG% is 40.6 this season. Durant's is 29.9.
If we simply increased Durant's stats by 40.6/29.9, we'd get a very rough sense of what we're talking about.

So, Durant would go to 1.35 times his stats.
Points: 27.0 > 36.5
Assists: 5.7 > 7.7
Remember, Harden is at 36.5 and 7.6. So, just increasing his usage rate would put them neck and neck.

3. 3PAr
Harden takes 13.3 threes per game, and he's a slightly above average shooter on them (35 is average; he's at 36.3). But 53.7% of his FGA are threes.
Durant takes 5.2 threes per game, but though he's far better in his career, he's at only 34.8% this season. That's a .279 3PAr.

Step 1: Increase 3PAr
Durant takes 18.6 FG per game.
.537 of that is 9.99. If Durant took 4.8 more threes per game (instead of 2s) at 34.8%, he would add 1.7 PPG.
Points: 27.0 > 28.6
Assists: 5.7 > 5.7

Step 2: Increase to Match
This is a different take. If Durant just took 13.3 threes per game, at 34.8%, he'd score 13.9 points per game off threes. At present, he scores 5.4. That's an increase of 8.5.
Points: 27.0 > 35.5
Assists: 5.7 > 5.7

4. Whistles
Durant's FTr is .372, below his career average but in line with what he has done the past five seasons. Harden's is .453, actually almost at a career low but well above Durant's.

If Durant got Harden's whistles, he'd shoot 11.4 FT/G. At 88.5%, he'd score 10.1 PPG at the line. At present, he scores 8.3.
Points: 27.0 > 28.8.

5. Some Combo
Maybe Durant can't control the whistles, but he could shoot more and increase his USG%.

If he increased his USG% to match Harden and increased his 3PAr to match Harden's, we'd see some cool changes:

Step 1: USG% Up
Points: 27.0 > 36.5
Assists: 5.7 > 7.7

Step 2: 3Par Up
Points: 36.5 > 38.7

Step 3: Whistles to Match
Points: 40.5

Step 4: Minutes to Match
Points: 43.9
Assists: 8.2
Rebounds: 6.9

 

He was too clutch with those FTs. On the other hand, it’s the Kings, so it’s OK.

 

I'm a Luke supporter, but that off rating is mostly on him and his staff. Our half court offense is abysmal to watch. I blame our FO for the terrible 3pt rating

*Click on tweet and then image to view Lakers rating*

 

Calling Anon, your soulmate is here. Of course I think I think they might be one in the same.