2015 Free Agent Discussion

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by ShowTime_IR, Nov 3, 2014.

  1. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    I honestly see Olshey (GM for Portland) and Rivers resigning to their centers. Having thought about it some more today, Monroe is not a bad option in the interim provided we don't draft a center with our pick this year.
     
  2. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    I don't think we'll be able to afford both. Monroe's agent wanted a max deal last summer and ever since Josh Smith got released Monroe is playing pretty close to max level. In 26 games-

    16.1 points
    12 rebounds
    2.3 assists
    1.2 steals
    0.5 blocks
    51% FG
    75% FT
    2.2 TOs
    6.3/12.6 (average shots made/average shots attempted)
    3.5/4.6 (average FTs made/average FTs attempted)
    ~ 31 minutes per game

    That's pretty close to a max deal for a 6'11" PF/C that's only 24 years old. Certainly too much for us to get both Wes Matthews AND Monroe.
     
  3. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    If you land Monroe you probably try to go pry Danny Green out of SA. He'll be cheaper than Wes and he's going to be an under the radar kind of pick-up. Maybe you end up with something like-

    Mudiay/Clarkson
    Bryant/
    Green/Young
    Randle/Kelly
    Monroe/Black
     
  4. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    ^I'd roll with that. Also, I like Ellington. I'd see if he could be brought back for the minimum.
     
  5. Savory Griddles

    Savory Griddles Moderator Staff Member

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    If we draft Russell/Mundiay, I'd throw a max deal at Monroe. That would be about all we could afford. If we draft Okafor/Towes, I'd throw a max offer sheet at Brandon Knight, daring the Suns to have two max pgs on their roster. If they match, I would consider packing it in again. Let our rookies and second year players develop with LOTS of playing time.
     
  6. lakerjones

    lakerjones Moderator Staff Member

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    Not sure Monroe is the guy we need necessarily. But I like Matthews.
     
  7. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    I just very much doubt that the Lakers go that route. No way they risk having another season like this when there's impact UFAs out there. It's not worth messing with Phoenix for us to be last in our division again.

    If we draft Okafor/Towns, then I go hard after Dragic. I force Riles to pony up the cash and pull some sort of trickery to keep him there. From everything I've read Dragic wants to come to LA. Dragic sees this spot as a perfect fit for him and now that Bosh has a serious health issue, I could see Dragic leaving for LA despite a max offer from Riles.

    Dragic/Clarkson
    Bryant/Ellington
    _____/Young
    Randle/Kelly
    Okafor/Black

    Damn man that's a team competing for the 7-8th spot if they stay healthy enough. In a few years if they can develop nicely that's a 4-6 seed with some modest additions.
     
  8. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    ^Wes would probably be our starting 3 in that scenario, and I'm ok with that.
     
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  9. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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  10. lakerfan2

    lakerfan2 - Lakers All Star -

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    My dream scenario would be this:

    Steal Marc Gasol in Free Agency.
    Draft Russell/Mudiay.
    Resign Ellington/Boozer if possible (via Exceptions, etc.)
    Sign a defensive SF.

    Clarkson/Mudiay
    Kobe/Ellington
    SF/Young
    Boozer/Randle/Kelly
    Gasol/Black/Sacre

    That would be a pretty well rounded squad right there.
     
  11. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    Good. We're officially rebuilding. I needed him to say that. Not that I couldn't figure it out myself, but I'm glad the Front Office understands this and isn't going to attempt to shortcut this process for Kobe. Let's build this the right way...
     
  12. LakersN4

    LakersN4 - Rookie -

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    Ok Mitch, I hear you on that. A few years late but I hear you. Here's the issue: If we finish the season badly enough to get a top 5 pick, it's only top 3 protected next season. Then 2 years from giving up the pick we traded to Phoenix we owe Orlando a top 5 protected 1st. So you're looking at 2 of our next 4 1st rounders already being gone. How exactly are you going to rebuild with youth? I'm not saying hand out max contracts to guys that are Dragic or Rondo's age, but if you're going to talk about not sacrificing youth, you better be all over throwing offers at the crop of young RFA's & UFA's this summer.

    Brandon Knight

    Jimmy Butler
    Khris Middleton
    Kawhi
    Draymond Green

    Monroe
    Biyombo

    & I think Love is still young enough to be thrown in this conversation. A few other guys like Tobias Harris who I wouldn't want us to sign.

    Then you have guys that are a few years older but should be available for less than max money, making them huge bargains when the cap jumps:

    Asik
    Wes Matthews


    If we aren't making offers to multiple guys I listed, as well as entertaining the idea of trading youth for win-now players if we land multiple FA's, we'll be stuck depending on Randle & our top 5 pick to become allstars if we want to sell anyone on signing with us when Kobe's contract comes off the books & in 2016. A player to keep an eye on if the Suns end up maxing out Knight is Bledsoe. They're too cheap to keep 2 PG's making that much on the roster, & after they miss the playoffs again this year, they'll probably be thinking rebuild, which means keeping the younger of the 2 PG's. They're already sending signals of a rebuild by trading for young players & draft picks.
     
  13. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Rebuild with youth = Randle, Top 5 pick this year, Clarkson, and maybe Pick in the 20s.

    That's what he's talking about. We have no intention of continuing to suck this much and making our own picks hold a high value. Our picks shouldn't be over 14 for very long.
     
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  14. southbaylakers72

    southbaylakers72 - Rookie -

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    Butler would be a nice get but what are the odds on that?
     
  15. LakersN4

    LakersN4 - Rookie -

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    I hope you're right & they have no intention of letting this team continue to suck, because there's no reason to.

    From the article:
    I agree with not bringing in old veterans that make a lot of money. I'm completely against throwing the max at Dragic or Rondo. But there's absolutely no reason not to go down the list of top FA's that aren't "old" & land the best 1 you can. Butler, Knight, Love headline the list. Then you have Monroe. Wes Matthews is older but I wouldn't say he's an old veteran. Lower tier young guys like Biyombo, Tobias Harris, & Middleton.

    The problem I have with your take is that we shouldn't be afraid to trade Randle, top 5 pick, Clarkson, or the Houston pick if we can acquire good players. I can see Bledsoe being the odd man out if Phoenix decides to max Knight, due to Bledsoe being a few years older & his injury history. I'm sure they're going to think twice about having 2 max PG's on a team that can't make the playoffs. If you believe the rumors, we were interested in trading for Lawson & Lawson was interested in leaving. That will probably still be the case this offseason.

    Hypothetically speaking, let's say we're able to sign Love or Monroe & with the remaining cap space we get Matthews, Middleton, Harris or another wing with less value than those 2. Let's also say we draft a C with our top 5 pick. If Lawson or Bledsoe is available for a package built around Randle or Clarkson + the Houston pick, I think it'd be foolish not to pull the trigger. Most likely it'd be Randle as Clarkson doesn't have the value to land players like Lawson or Bledsoe. & by the same token, Lawson or Bledsoe don't have the value to net our top 5 pick. We'd have to attach some filler to Randle so we'd probably dump Kelly & Sacre's contracts, worst case we have to include Young. Even if Randle ends up being a quality starter, is it really a bad move? We have Love or Monroe at PF & Okafor or Towns at C. We would need a good starting PG more than a good backup PF.

    Lawson/Bledsoe
    Kobe
    Matthews/Middleton/Harris
    Love/Monroe
    Okafor/Towns

    With Young, Clarkson, Hou pick, & hopefully Ed Davis leading the bench.

    Barring some extremely bad luck with health or our pick being a bust, that's a playoff team even in the stacked West. & there's absolutely no reason not to go for it.

    1. We won't be getting another lottery pick in 2016 since it's only top 3 protected.

    2. We keep our 2017 pick but then our 2018 1st goes to Orlando (top 5 protected)

    3. Kobe's huge contract comes off the books next season, allowing us to add on if we need to.

    4. The year after Kobe expires is when the cap is projected to jump up by a ton. Again allowing us to add on.

    So you're looking at being able to field a potential playoff team next year, then still having cap space to sign free agents each of the following 2 years. There is no alternative that sounds more appealing to me. Not signing older FA's to 20M a year like Rondo or Dragic. Not signing players to 1 year deals again to roll over our cap space & be horrible then watch Philly get our lottery pick. I really see no plan that makes more sense than something like I outlined.
     
  16. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    We desperately need someone to play at the PG spot unless people think we can run Clarkson there or we're bringing back Lin and he'll suddenly be rejuvenated.
     
  17. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    I absolutely will not trade Randle unless we're getting one of the elite players in the NBA. He's shown some tremendous potential, he's our highest pick since Worthy, and he didn't even have a chance this season. If he'd stayed healthy he would most likely be the Rookie of the Year with his only real competition being Andrew Wiggins.

    We have a chance to do something along the lines of what OKC did with Westbrook and Durant: have two "home grown" kids that carry our franchise forward. If you listen to what Mitch said about free agency, he said their FAs will be determined by what we can do in the draft. Really what he's saying is we're building AROUND our draft picks. We have a shot at having two elite young players on young contracts that could create a new dynasty in LA. I'm not trading them to shoot for the stars around Lawson and Love when the picks could project long term AND we have the cap space to just sign Lawson and Love if we really wanted to.

    Why trade those picks unless you're getting one of the best players in the league? I wouldn't do it. My rebuild would take longer, but I think makes more sense. This summer you get a Top 5 Pick, you sign an impact free agent, and you head into next season with a young core that is capable of tremendous growth.

    Then Kobe retires, you sign another high impact player and you have a team fighting for a playoff spot.

    Then the Cap blows up and you've got a young, developing team with two strong Free Agents and the ability to add even more to the mix. Our road back is built off of making huge moves, it's built off of being a "player destination" and a team that players really want to play for (which is why I hate sitting Boozer if it becomes a long-term issue).
     
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  18. southbaylakers72

    southbaylakers72 - Rookie -

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    Agree with TRD above. My feeling here is while it might be nice to give Kobe a competitive team for a send off, that is a foolish plan if it sets the team back another 10 years. Like the real estate market the NBA and who is good and who is bad (from a well run franchise perspective) is cyclical. We are now in the 1973-1977 lakers rebuilding mode, or the 1993-1997 rebuilding mode plus a few years due to changes to salary cap structures and things the NBA has done to improve the rest of the league. Recall back in the 1970s there were fewer teams than in the 1990s and so it goes for every 20 years. If you factor in the dilution of talent coming into the NBA due to more roster spots (more teams) and the natural matriculation of players and misses in the draft - you can see why it (for even a well run organization) should take at least 5 years probably more to do a true rebuild (assuming that you don't draft a legendary player). So, by that math, the Lakers should not have a legitimate shot to contend until 2017-2018 (assuming no more expansion, lock-outs, or they don't draft a legendary player because there is no trade market for them to acquire one).

    If the lakers try too hard to accelerate that timeframe artificially (and miss) - e.g. Carmelo Anthony (whew) - it could set them back into the next window and so I think we do need to draft and keep as many picks as possible with the understanding that by sheer evolution - the old players (even legends retire) and new ones are made by the talent that has yet to come and knowing that _every_ team goes through it (because every career comes to an end) and there are more competitive owners out there in the 2010's than there were in the 1970s (ABA merger era), or 1990's (expansion era) including some who have learned how to build a winner by watching how the lakers have done it and have now obtained the NBA's blessing to make it more difficult for everyone to build teams with any lasting value mixed with a feeling that has emerged wherein the NBA player values their services much more as an individual business franchise more than ever before (tension with ownership) and thus creating the possibility for more selfish play (Carmelo).
     
  19. southbaylakers72

    southbaylakers72 - Rookie -

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    One more thought (belongs in optimism thread), we know how to draft talent. Vlade Divac was a late round pick (and while controversial when he arrived, he turned out to be a very great piece to the Sacto teams). Michael Cooper was a 3rd round pick (back when there were many rounds to the draft). Lakers also drafted James Edwards (Buddha), Adrien Dantley, Anthony Peeler, Norm Nixon and others who became trade bait and key parts of rebuild plans.
     
  20. ElginTheGreat

    ElginTheGreat - Lakers MVP -

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