Timofey Mozgov Discussion: Shut Down For Season (66)

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by Lakers2015, Jun 30, 2016.

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  1. KRL

    KRL - Lakers 6th Man -

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    It's also a combination of analytics where the 3 ball is more valued
     
    KRL, Jun 2, 2017
    #1361
  2. Juronimo

    Juronimo - Lakers Starter -

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    Maybe, but 3 point shooters rarely get fouled on their attempts. Talented post players get fouled a lot, and tend to convert confortably over 50%. I don't know enough about statistics to numerically quantify anything, maybe @trodgers can chime in there, but a skilled big man's ability to get high percentage buckets, and their ability to put the other team in foul trouble has to be an extremely valuable asset to any team.

    Also even with analytics and 3 ball, guys like Karl Anthony-Towns, the Brow and the Process still get picked at or near 1 for a reason.
     
    Juronimo, Jun 2, 2017
    #1362
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  3. KRL

    KRL - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Both bigs u mentioned also shoot 3's ;)
     
    KRL, Jun 2, 2017
    #1363
  4. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I don't think that's true. If they wanted him gone, why did they let him start all but one game in the regular season, start every game in the postseason, and play more minutes than all but four players?
     
    trodgers, Jun 2, 2017
    #1364
  5. pound4pound

    pound4pound - Lakers Starter -

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    If Mozgov is sooooooo unhappy, lets have all sides get together and agree to terminate the rest of his contract and allow him to be a free agent
     
    pound4pound, Jun 2, 2017
    #1365
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  6. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I'm not sure what data you want exactly, but here's some good data.

    Over the last five seasons, I requested players 6'11" and taller with at least 1500 minutes. I sorted by Offensive Box Plus/Minus.
    The top ten:
    Name (3pa)
    KAT 275
    Giannis 180
    Dirk 329
    Cousins 364
    Bosh 222
    Gasol 268
    Chandler 0
    Cousins 7
    B. Lopez 387
    Chandler 0
    So, seven of the most "positively impactful" bigs were three-point shooters.

    The Ten with the Lowest OBPM were:
    Stiemsma 0
    Sabonis 159
    Mahinmi 2
    Garnett 3
    Len 7
    Haywood 1
    Ezeli 0
    Asik 0
    Mahinmi 0
    Turner 14
    Only one of them shot threes.

    Now, among the players with 150+ 3pa, 20 of the 34 had a positive OBPM.
    Three were at 4+
    Four were at 3+
    Six were at 2+
    12 were at 1+
    8 were at 0-<1
    Seven were at <-1

    FTA
    The top 10 players in terms of OBPM had the following FTA/Game
    5.2
    7.7
    4.7
    9.3
    5.1
    4.5
    3.4
    8.4
    4.9
    3.9
    All at least 3.4, eight of them at 4+

    The bottom ten had averages of:
    2.1
    3.1
    1.1
    1.0
    1.6
    1.7
    2.0
    2.1
    3.1
    3.2
    All below 4, seven below 2.2.

    So, what to do?
    None of the players in the top 10 in terms of OBPM took fewer than 3.4 FTA/game.
    Seven took at least 4.5.
    Three took at least 7.5.

    So, among the top players, here are the FTA/G and 3pta/G numbers:
    1. 5.2/3.4
    2. 7.7/2.3
    3. 4.7/4.1
    4. 9.3/5.1
    5. 5.1/4.2
    6. 4.5/3.6
    7. 3.4/0.0
    8. 8.4/0.1
    9. 4.9/5.2
    10. 3.9/0.0

    #7, 8, and 10 are all clearly NOT three-point shooters. At all.
    Only one of them (Lopez) averaged more threes than FTAs.

    Comparison of points of threes vs. points of FTs:
    1. KAT 303 < 356
    2. GIannis 147<471
    3. Dirk 393>338
    4. Cousins 393<517
    5. Bosh 243>213
    6. Marc 312>278
    7. Chandler 0<257
    8. Cousins 0<179
    9. Lopez 402>295
    10. Chandler 0<258
    So, among these six scored more on FTs, including five of them who weren't within 100 points.
    Four scored more on FTs, including only one who was 100+ points ahead on threes.

    Among the ten worst OBPM, here were the comparisons of 3pt points vs. FT points:
    3<174
    0<140
    0<106
    6<207
    3<134
    3<133
    0<168
    3<143
    0<120
    6<137
    All ten of them scored at least 100+ more points at the FT line, and none of them hit threes.

    Bottom Line: Hitting threes doesn't make you good, but if you can't hit threes, you're going to struggle to be an efficient NBA player nowadays.
     
    trodgers, Jun 2, 2017
    #1366
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  7. Doc Brown

    Doc Brown - Lakers Starter -

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    I'm just here for the beating heart for KAT :h:
     
    Doc Brown, Jun 2, 2017
    #1367
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  8. SFGOLDRUSHER

    SFGOLDRUSHER - Lakers Starter -

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    Start Moz.. then go in with Black to run and gun.

    Hopefully in this process,Mozs value is at a respectable level and perhaps we find a trade partner around the deadline.
     
    SFGOLDRUSHER, Jun 2, 2017
    #1368
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  9. Juronimo

    Juronimo - Lakers Starter -

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    Interesting.

    Could the efficiency numbers have anything to do with post play dying out?

    I'm curious to know how many free throws or how efficient great post players were, such as Hakeem, Duncan, Shaw etc.
     
    Juronimo, Jun 2, 2017
    #1369
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  10. Khmrp

    Khmrp - Lakers Legend -

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    Your referring to deng in clev right? They never made the playoffs post lebron, my criticism was of deng when he got traded to clev
     
    Khmrp, Jun 3, 2017
    #1370
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  11. Khmrp

    Khmrp - Lakers Legend -

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    and pershaps youll win the lotto as well lol
     
    Khmrp, Jun 3, 2017
    #1371
  12. SFGOLDRUSHER

    SFGOLDRUSHER - Lakers Starter -

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    I think we're over hyping the contract situation. If you're someone like Brooklyn you need help and not signing anyone without majorly overpaying. Kinda like what we did but the difference is we got hella young talent on cheap deals so MozDeng DONT affect our flexibility much. Y'all think it does but let's not act like we're gonna sign two all stars in one year.

    We got to wait till the draft heats up more... then the oppportunities will be there to move them. Key is giving as little as possible of course.
     
    SFGOLDRUSHER, Jun 3, 2017
    #1372
  13. SFGOLDRUSHER

    SFGOLDRUSHER - Lakers Starter -

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    Another good way to think about our C position... Moz,Black and Zubac make a combined like 23 million? That's not bad collectively.
     
    SFGOLDRUSHER, Jun 3, 2017
    #1373
  14. tada

    tada - Lakers All Star -

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    Big's get hurt so it's good to have extra bodies. Zubac/Moz with Black as a 3rd stringer is a pretty good rotation, I'd say.
     
    tada, Jun 3, 2017
    #1374
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  15. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Okay; that makes a lot more sense :)
     
    trodgers, Jun 3, 2017
    #1375
  16. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Hakeem hit only 25 threes in his career, but he averaged more than 6 FTA per game in 11 seasons. His OBPM varied wildly, even during his prime. He was as low as 0.1 in 1989-1990 and as high as 3.0 in 1992-92. His career number was 1.1.

    Shaq took more than 10 FT per game in 10 seasons, averaging 9.3 per game in his career. He hit 1 three in his career. His OBPM was insane, at 3.4 in his career, and has high as 6.2 in back to back seasons, and at 5+ six times.

    Duncan hit 30 threes in his career, and he averaged 6.1 FTA per game in his career. He attempted 8+ four times, too. His career OBPM was 1.5, and it was at 2.4+ in five seasons in his career.

    OBPM takes into account other stats - not just scoring. My Scoring Efficiency Stat might be a better measure of the question you're asking, or maybe even TS% or eFG%.

    I think it's very hard to make it as an in the paint player on offense in this NBA. If you're going to do that, you have to be able to pass well, rebound well, or defend very well - and probably you have to be able to do at least two of those three or you won't see the floor. Gasol can pass and defend. Gobert can rebound and defend. I'm not sure Zu can do any of them, yet, for comparison.
     
    trodgers, Jun 3, 2017
    #1376
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  17. Khmrp

    Khmrp - Lakers Legend -

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    Yea it was a 2 part comment, the transforming body was about moz then I questionned dengs motive to come here
     
    Khmrp, Jun 3, 2017
    #1377
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  18. Khmrp

    Khmrp - Lakers Legend -

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    No im not, maybe next yr when he only has 2 yrs left or yr after when he expiring. After what we did to him last season you really think nets settle for the 28th pick? We got it trading a very good 6th man and still had to take back equal contract. I get wanting to be optimistic but lets be real here, unless the team some how was winning and moz was avg like 13/8 or something than maybe but how likely do you see both scenario happening by next trade deadline?
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2017
    Khmrp, Jun 3, 2017
    #1378
  19. OX1947

    OX1947 - Lakers MVP -

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    The amount of excuses some of you give this slop is seriously nauseating. Here's some reality for this jackhole:

    2016 Playoff: 13 games played out of 21 games played. 1.2 ppg. 1.6 ppg. 0.2 bpg.

    Those numbers got him 64 f***ing million dollars. The nerve he has to say anything about being with "the champs" when the "champs" had him busting a** on a chair for 2 and a half months while everyone else on that team was doing something to help them win.
     
    OX1947, Jun 3, 2017
    #1379
  20. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    No one is forcing you to be here or read our comments.

    Just because some of us don't hyperbolically hate the guy doesn't mean we love him. The reasons why his contract is reasonable have been listed dozens of times. Feel free to browse this thread to find them. Short answer: look at the market on his contract. Understanding something and supporting it are two different things.
     
    therealdeal, Jun 3, 2017
    #1380
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