JULIUS RANDLE PROJECTIONS Scoring Efficiency: 5.52 Passing Efficiency: 2.16 Hustle Efficiency: 3.36 Position: BIG Positional Efficiency: 79 -At present, Randle is a bully with a ridiculously good first step. His handles are excellent for a PF, and he works hard on the glass. With an improved jumper, there is no reason he cannot be a 20 PPG scorer, but his jumper is not there yet. Suggestion: Be a more physical Z-bo with better handles (and Boozer like numbers - which everyone here has maligned) 2017: Scoring Efficiency: 5.78(good/excellent) Passing: 3.21 (good/excellent) Hustle: 2.44(adequate/solid) Position: BIG Positional Efficiency: 81 RULING: He's a better scorer, much better passer, and much less of a hustle player than I'd thought. The Boozer numbers are so on point it's crazy. Both averaged 12/9 through age 21-22 seasons, neither blocked shots or racked up steals, neither can shoot from outside (but Randle is already better than Boozer there), and Randle's a better playmaker. Randle's 16.1 PER is very nice, but it hasn't touched even Boozer's rookie season (it's the shooting efficiency, I think). D'ANGELO RUSSELL PROJECTIONS Scoring Efficiency: 5.71 Passing Efficiency: 3.38 Hustle Efficiency: 2.67 Position: PG Positional Efficiency: 74 -Russell showed decent scoring punch, good vision, strong effort on defense, and a serious lack of readiness for running an NBA offense. He should, however, learn pretty quickly, and could be a solid all-around player by end of year one. Suggestion: be like Penny. 2017: Scoring Efficiency: 6.07(excellent/exceptional) Passing: 3.65 (excellent/exceptional) Hustle: 2.44 (adequate/solid) Position: PG Positional Efficiency: 82 RULING: Russell is in his "age 20" season, while Penny was in his "age 22" season as a rookie. Russ's 16-5-3.5 in 29 minutes is very favorable compared to 16-7-5.5 in 37 minutes. Russ is shooting better on threes and FTs, but Penny was at 47% on FGs. Russ isn't quite there, even on offense, but he's still younger - the comparison isn't bad. NICK YOUNG PROJECTIONS Scoring Efficiency: 6.05 Passing Efficiency: 2.06 Hustle Efficiency: 2.04 Position: Wing Positional Efficiency: 60 -Nick Young can score well in the NBA, and when he gets hot, it's impressive to watch. When he isn't scoring, he isn't doing much on offense. Suggestion: Be like earlier career Nick Young 2017: Scoring Efficiency: 6.01(excellent/exceptional) Passing: 1.87(poor/adequate) Hustle: 2.05 (adequate/solid) Position: Wing Positional Efficiency: 57 RULING: Nick was about the player I'd hoped he'd be, but his mental game has been on on and off. I'm ready to sever ties with him, but I could see him coming back on a team friendly deal.
One More Update: In January 2016, I looked at best case/worst case, and most likely case for our players: SACRE Realistic Utopian Scenario: Sacre plays heavy minutes so he can keep his 3-10' shot well oiled, and he still shoots <50% from the field and <70% from the line. He hustles, sets screens, makes decent decisions, and doesn't hurt the team too much when he's on the court. Cold, Hard World Scenario: Sacre's uninspired play can't overcome his physical gifts and the fact that he's apparently a good teammate. Best Use: Sacre collects a pay check, stays loose, and plays only when someone is injured for the next half decade or so. REALITY: Sacre leaves the NBA after four seasons RYAN KELLY Realistic Utopian Scenario: Spencer Hawes comes to mind. Hawes posted three good seasons, starting at age 23. He is already on the decline in his career at 27, but he'll be in the league for a few more seasons. At his best, Hawes was a solid balance of rebounding, outside shooting, and passing. Cold, Hard World Scenario: There are many stretch fours" who cannot shot. Donte Green and Austin Daye lasted a combined ten seasons in the NBA. This is Kelly's third. The math is simple; the end is near. Best Use: Kelly has to be anchored to the PF spot, and he probably needs minutes on a consistent basis to be most effective. He doesn't need a lot of minutes, but he needs the consistency. Is he worth keeping around as a purely offensive player? Not for this team. Not unless we add an awesome Center and some active wings. In such a setup, Kelly could be an effective player for a long time (GSW or SA would maximize his talents). REALITY: He's on a roster, but he hasn't played even 100 minutes. Too early to call, but likely The End is Near. JULIUS RANDLE Realistic Utopian Scenario: Carlos Boozer shot significantly better than Randle, but other than that, the two compare favorably. Neither is a great passer, blocks many shots, or picks up a lot of steals. Both were solid scorers and good rebounders. In fact, however, Randle has a few other things going for him that Boozer didn't: in their age 21 seasons, Randle is a better scorer (in terms of points per 36 minutes) and is a rebounding at a better rate than Boozer ever has. Basically everyone who compares favorably to Randle's early career numbers is an All-Star (Spencer Haywood, DeMarcus Cousins, Z-bo, Moses Malone, for instance). If Randle is destined to be an offensive minded PF who can develop any semblance of a shot, he'll average 18/12 for the next decade and flirt with the ASG. Cold, Hard World Scenario: Lorenzen Wright wasn't much of a shooter, didn't block shots, and didn't steal the ball, but he could score reasonably well, and he was a solid rebounder, especially on the offensive glass. He carved out a 13 year career as a journeyman, and perhaps career averages of 8/6.4 are all that Julius can post on a strong team, where he cannot expect to play more than 28 MPG on a regular basis. Best Use: Find a shooter, insert that shooter at the SF spot. Let Julius crash the glass and live off scraps. Until he develops a jumper and a right hand, he is best suited as a garbage man. He will be a very good garbage man, maybe one of the best, but he will have to diversify his game if he is to break out of that mold. REALITY: Some semblance of a shot but a decreased rebound rate has Randle a little closer to Realistic Utopian than Cold, Hard World. In fact, his numbers look most like Lorenzen Wright's prime with lots more playmaking abilities (and less defense). JORDAN CLARKSON Realistic Utopian Scenario: Steve Smith. More a PG/facilitator early in his career, Smith became a pure SG after three years in the league. He played 15 seasons in the NBA, made an All-Star Game, started more than 700 games in his career, and piled up 13,000 points, 3000 rebounds, and 3000 assists. Cold, Hard World Scenario: Willie Anderson did some good things in his NBA career. He stuck in the league for 9 seasons, started 432 games, and averaged 15-5-5 for his career. He also shot better than JC at 47% from the floor. He never developed a three-point shot necessary to put him to the next level, so he was always at best a decent scorer. Clarkson is already a better three-point shooter, but he has some work to do in the assist/rebound game, and he needs to improve his shooting from the floor generally, so the strength might compensate for the lack. Best Use: Clarkson seems best suited to having the ball more and making more decisions, at least from an individual point of view. It would be unfair to put a ceiling on him right now, given what he has already done to shatter some of those outside imposed limitations. As an off the ball guard, Clarkson has to continue to improve his outside shot and put in work on the defensive end. He can and should be a legitimate option to create buckets, principally for himself but also for teammates. His early success is forcing LA's hand at least a year early: they will have to make a big decision without sufficient information. REALITY: It looks to me like JC's career is going to be more like Anderson's than Smith's. He's Anderson with a three and less D. TARIK BLACK Realistic Utopian Scenario: Anderson Varejao's early career saw him anchored to the paint (nearly 80% of his FGs came within 10' of the rim over the course of his first seven seasons), doing the dirty work, and playing tough defense. He has now extended his range, and it has allowed him to extend his NBA career. Varejao's 4500 points, 4500 rebounds, and 15,000 career minutes across 12 seasons show that players in this mold can be successful. (Note: Why not Chuck Hayes? Simply because Black is a more talented offensive player than Hayes ever was.) Cold, Hard World Scenario: Black has already played more minutes than Pops Mensah-Bonsu and Shavlik Randolph, so perhaps his lower end is a player like Michael "The Animal" Smith, who managed 170 starts across seven seasons, with career averages of 6 points and 7 boards. Best Use: First or second big off the bench, in the energizer role. Black could make a long career filling that niche, and he can fill in for spot starts, especially in the Small Ball Era. It would be a catastrophic mistake to let him go without an attempt to retain him on the cheap. REALITY: That Michael Smith isn't a bad comparison. Black is at 5/5 in his career with 55 starts and counting. Varejao's career numbers loom in the far distance on Black's career path. D'ANGELO RUSSELL Realistic Utopian Scenario: Calling anyone Jason Kidd borders on blasphemy, and Russell would have to increase both his assists and defense by a wide margin to get into that conversation. On the other hand, Penny Hardaway was a four-time All Star, piled up 10,000 points, 3500 assists, and 3000 rebounds over fifteen years. While he posted better numbers as a rookie than Russell, he was also three years older than DA. Hardaway didn't really have the kind of shot from distance that DA has either. Cold, Hard World Scenario: Is it fair to call Eddie Jones Russell's lower end? Jones has the higher 3pt% and lower assist numbers compared to Hardaway, but Jones was a better defender. He also managed three All Star appearances, 14,000 points, nearly 4000 rebounds and nearly 3000 assists. While Hardaway burned more brightly, Jones lasted longer. Best Use: Russell must be held accountable, must improve his defense, must improve his decision-making. That all comes with on court experience and then direction from the mentor and/or coach. That is precisely what Russell needs. REALITY: Eddie Jones...without the defense? I still think that Penny/Jones is a good comparison for DAR, at least on offense.
if russell could replicate penny's prime, that would exceed my expectations. i think van exel is more realistic, though.
Russell is younger than Klay when Klay entered the league. Thompson's numbers went: 12.5-2.0-2.4 (age 21 season) 16.6-2.2-3.7 18.4-2.2-3.1 21.7-2.9-3.2 vs. 13.2-3.3-3.4 (age 19 season) 15.6-4.8-3.5 (age 20 season) So, Russ does a LOT better on assists, better on rebounds, and scores better than a one-year older Klay. Klay's shooting numbers are just a lot better: 443-414-868 422-401-841 444-417-795 463-439-879 vs. 410-351-737 407-354-780 But Russ's PER is better than any of Klay's first three seasons.
Here's that Boozer vs. Randle comparison, age 21 and 22 seasons: Boozer vs. Randle 29.8 MPG 28.6 12.6 PPG 12.2 1.6 APG 2.6 9.4 RPG 9.5 0.9 SPG 0.7 0.7 BPG 0.4 1.5 TOPG 2.1 52.8% FG 45.5 14.3% 3pt 27.8 76.9% FT 72.0 19.5 PER 14.9 57.1 TS% 51.0 15.4 WS 4.9 3.9 VORP 0.0 Closest we can do for Penny/Russell is Penny's rookie season vs. Russell's post-ASB numbers (where Penny is still 200 days older than Russell): Penny vs. DAR 36.8 MPG 33.2 16.0 PPG 18.7 6.6 APG 5.1 5.4 RPG 3.0 2.3 SPG 1.7 0.6 BPG 0.2 3.6 TOPG 3.0 46.5% FG 43.2 26.7% 3pt 36.2 74.2% FT 79.4 53.1 TS% 54.4 EDIT: can't get partial season's WS/VORP, unfortunately.
This is one of my favorite threads, because I put it all out there... Penny: age 23 season 20.9 points 7.2 assists 4.4 rebounds Shot .512/.349/.796 Russ: just turned 23 21.1 points 7.0 assists 3.9 rebounds Shot .434/.364/.780 Boozer through age 24: 14.2 points 2.0 assists 9.2 rebounds 53% FGs, 74% FTs Randle through age 24: 15.4 points 2.7 assists 8.7 rebounds 50% FGs, 72% FTs
Not sure Penny to Russ is fair. Penny was averaging close to the same amount of points (more efficiently) while having to defer big time to Shaq. If Shaq was on Russ's team, it's unlikely he finishes with 21 ppg. Shaq was fed the ball constantly on that team. Penny was also feeding Dennis Scott and Nick Anderson. They both got their fair number of shots too. I like Russ and wish he was on the team still, but before Penny's knee injuries, he was a top 10-15 player in the league.
