khmpr posted a thought-provoking list of player contract value. It showed JC had the worst valued contract of anyone making 10m+. That seems wrong to me - even if I don't think it's a great value. So I came up with a few ways of making sense of player value. Gross Value Just add up all the points + assists + rebounds a player accounts for. This is a very rough approximation of how much a player contributes. It doesn't account for efficiency and defense, but it's good for eyeballing players. Value Value Using the VORP system, simply divide value over replacement player by how much you're paying the guy. That's what you're paying for - it takes into account gross value in a way, it's comparative rather than absolute, and it includes defense. PER Value Subtract PER of counterpart from PER of the player in question. This creates a "PER differential" that can then be divided by 48 (MPG) times total minutes played. This shows how much PER the player generates over his counterpart over the course of a season. Divide by $$. I'll keep updating this list here: GROSS VALUE (How much do you pay per pt/ast/reb?) Brown 4.41 Gasol you pay $6.18 Clarkson you pay $7.22 M. Williams 7.79 Kevin Durant You pay $8.89. LeBron James You pay $9.17. DeRozan 10.63 Young 10.71 Whiteside $11.40 JR Smith you pay $11.52. Mahinmi $12.50 Horford 12.57 Rivers you pay $13.38. Biyombo $14.93. Mozgov you pay $18.93. Conley 19.44 Black $20.92 Noah $34.76 V Value LeBron .276 Durant .242 Gasol .226 Williams .220 Horford .154 Smith .133 Mahinmi .126 Whiteside .109 DeRozan .091 Conley .064 Biyombo .053 Noah .035 Clarkson .032 Mozgov .019 Rivers -.009 Black -.031 Young -.125 Brown -.556 PER Value Durant 32.8 LeBron 30.4 DeRozan 17.9 Whiteside 17.0 Gasol 13.9 Clarkson 11.9 Williams 8.9 Conley 4.8 Horford 3.3 Mahinmi 0.2 Rivers -0.1 Noah -1.8 Smith -3.6 Mozgov -5.5 Biyombo -5.5 Black -6.6 Young -34.2 Brown -134.5
BTW, a virtue of the PER approach is that you capture the player in the role they're going to be playing going forward. So JC's stats at PG are irrelevant, in my view, to his value on this team. He's a SG.
This is intriguing... I think it's a bit skewed negatively for Lakers because of where they played last year and more importantly who they played for, but so far I like it. I'll try to come up with some other concepts but I love this at first blush.
Added in Gasol, Marvin Williams, Deng, and Austin Rivers. GROSS VALUE (How much do you pay per pt/ast/reb?) Gasol you pay $6.18 Clarkson you pay $7.22 M. Williams 7.79 LeBron James You pay $9.17. Kevin Durant You pay $8.89. JR Smith you pay $11.52. Rivers you pay $13.38. Mozgov you pay $18.93. Now, I don't think JC is worth more than James. So there are problems with this approach. V Value LeBron .276 Durant .242 Gasol .226 Williams .220 Smith .133 Clarkson .032 Mozgov .019 Rivers -.009 PER Value Durant 32.8 LeBron 30.4 Gasol 13.9 Clarkson 11.9 Williams 8.9 Rivers -0.1 Smith -3.6 Mozgov -5.5
Tossing in some defensive-minded players: Whiteside, Mahinmi, Biyombo, and Noah. GROSS VALUE (How much do you pay per pt/ast/reb?) Gasol you pay $6.18 Clarkson you pay $7.22 M. Williams 7.79 LeBron James You pay $9.17. Kevin Durant You pay $8.89. Whiteside $11.40 JR Smith you pay $11.52. Mahinmi $12.50 Rivers you pay $13.38. Biyombo $14.93. Mozgov you pay $18.93. Noah $34.76 V Value LeBron .276 Durant .242 Gasol .226 Williams .220 Smith .133 Mahinmi .126 Whiteside .109 Biyombo .053 Noah .035 Clarkson .032 Mozgov .019 Rivers -.009 PER Value Durant 32.8 LeBron 30.4 Whiteside 17.0 Gasol 13.9 Clarkson 11.9 Williams 8.9 Mahinmi 0.2 Rivers -0.1 Noah -1.8 Smith -3.6 Mozgov -5.5 Biyombo -5.5
Tarik's numbers are fascinating. If you use last year, he's: $20.92 Gross Value -0.031 V Value -6.6 PER Value If you use his rookie numbers, he's: $8.11 Gross Value 0.016 V Value -1.56 PER Value Clearly, one of those looks like a MUCH better deal than the other. By last season's numbers, he'd be the worst signing so far.
Part of the difficulty here is that players are signed to do different things. Some are much more easily quantified than others.
I just want to watch basketball and be entertained. I want to gripe when we suck I want to cheer when we win I want to see progress, a system, and a plan and I want to say it all with pictures vs whip out my calculus book
This is the issue I'm thinking of with our young guys. Their value might not be apparent enough until they've realized (or not) some of their potential. Players signed on "potential" are going to look pretty bad. Biyombo comes to mind.
What? Come on now. This is kind of pretty interesting stuff. Don't go, "Get off my lawn" on us now .....
I think hard at work. I don't want to mess up my basketball fun by thinking too hard lol. But I also totally get it if other people just can't wait to take stats to another level and find the secret recipe for building a championship contender.
Or maybe that's what makes being a fan fun for us. Don't live in LA. Don't Grateful Dead and follow Lakers around in a bus. Just curious what we're doing - on many levels.
