i would like thon in the 2nd round as well, but I think he goes somewhere in the 1st to a team willing to take a chance/stash him away
Here are the numbers for top 5 picks over the past five years, compared to all players entering the league. BTW, I didn't remove the top 5 players' data from the other data set, so the other data set is actually inflated a bit; so the top 5 players are even more valuable (OTHERS, in other words, includes the top 5 players): YEAR ONE TOP FIVE PLAYER Mean: 1.7 WS Median: 1.25 WS OTHERS Mean: 0.8 Win Shares Median: 0.1 Win Shares Mode: -0.1 Win Shares --The Top 5 players are at least twice as valuable on average, and 50% of them earn at least one WS, while 50% of total players actually earn .1 or less. So that's 12x as valuable in the median position. YEAR TWO TOP FIVE PLAYER Mean: 3.4 WS (+1.7) Median: 3.4 WS (+2.15) OTHERS Mean: 1.7 Win Shares Median: 0.9 Win Shares Mode: 0.15 Win Shares --Both sets grow considerably, but the top 5 pick is now two to four times as valuable as a typical new player. YEAR THREE TOP FIVE PLAYER Mean: 4.4 WS (+1.0) Median: 3.8 WS (+0.4) OTHERS Mean: 2.6 Win Shares Median: 1.8 Win Shares Mode: 0 Win Shares --The top five player is worth about 2x the value of a typical new player by year three. YEAR FOUR TOP FIVE PLAYER Mean: 4.7 WS (+0.3) Median: 4.6 WS (+0.8) OTHERS Mean: 3.2 Win Shares Median: 2.4 Win Shares Mode: 0.3 Win Shares --The top five player is 1.5-2x as valuable as the typical new player. YEAR FIVE TOP FIVE PLAYER Mean: 6.5 WS (+1.9) Median: 5.0 WS (+0.4) OTHERS Mean: 3.6 Win Shares Median: 2.85 Win Shares Mode: 1.7 Win Shares --The top 5 player is roughly twice the value of a typical new player by season five. CUMULATIVE - FIVE YEARS TOP FIVE PLAYER 20.7 Win Shares 18.05 Win Shares OTHERS 11.9 Win Shares 8.1 2.05 Win Shares So, the top 5 players are at least twice as valuable, on average, and provide typically 18-20 win shares by season 5.
The reason Noel is on the block is because they have two other centers. That's the only reason. He finished second behind Wiggins in RoY voting LAST SEASON and a lot of analysts thought he actually deserved the award because defensively, he was fantastic.He has been in the league for two years. What do you mean he is what he is at this point? So the 23 year old Clarkson has room to improve...but the TWENTY-TWO year old Noel is stuck at what he is? I mean, are you aware that he is only 22 and has only been in the league for 2 seasons? He isn't a 24 year old, 5 year veteran. My point with DeRozan is you are saying our spacing is horrible, but what makes it horrible? Is it because Noel can't shoot? Well, how many centers can? I am not trying to put words into your mouth, but it feels like you're saying the spacing is bad because of Noel, and if Noel wasn't there we'd have a dude at the 5 stretching the floor. Whiteside, Biyombo...are they going to improve or hurt our spacing any differently than Noel? Other than Horford, who is going to stretch the floor from that spot? You also have to consider how Noel's second season was effected by essentially having to play next to another center or backup minutes behind Okafor since Philly continues to draft people at that position.
Plenty of centers can shoot nowadays. That's why a lot of teams play small ball, but Noel can't because he can't shoot at all. He has pretty much zero offensive game. As for Clarkson he has the athletic ability to still improve his defense. He just needs to refine his technique. Noel just doesn't have the skillset to improve much. That's why he is what he is. People reach plateu's all the time after a year or two in the league. Clarkson may have reached one, but he still has the talent and potential to get better. Noel wouldn't be on the trading block if he was good and Philalphia would trade him in a heartbeat for Clarkson. As for the spacing issue why do you think so many are wanting Randle and Nance to improve their shooting? So we can play small ball. Wiggins was clearly the rookie of the year last year. I really don't get the argument for Noel. He was solid defensively sure, but Wiggins was by far the better overall player both impact wise and statistically. He averaged 17/5 as a rookie and that was without Karl Anthony Towns on the roster. Noel averaged 9 and 8. I mean it's not close. I'm not saying I wouldn't want Noel, but trading him for Clarkson? That just makes no sense to me. Yes he improves the defense and then we see a huge downgrade on the other end where we already struggle to score. Clarkson is our most consistent scorer right now. I do think D'Angelo is a better all around player, but we'll miss his offense and shot creating ability especially off the dribble when things break down.
Hey if sirron can be super interested in the Bender situation (that's fine BTW just teasing him), I reserve the right to very much not want Noel anywhere near this team. Once again by the appearances of this situation ..... not a high character type of dude. $75,000 lawsuit. He and his chump buddies did not give a s*** about the nice house he was leasing. Why should they .... it wasn't their's. http://thebiglead.com/2016/04/08/nerlens-noel-sued-for-destroying-house-he-rented/ http://www.tmz.com/2016/04/08/nerle...-ever-weed-gatorade-stains-and-death-threats/ Just did another search and here's his lawyer speak "denial" and an exterior pic of the house. http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...el-responds-claim-he-trashed-rental-home.html
I agree that we would miss Clarkson, but the type of center we need with Randle is a shot blocking center than can switch off and guard other positions. Horford is the perfect center for this team from a skill set standpoint. But there's only one Horford. I get that Noel is going to be limited on offense. But so is Biyombo and that dude is going to get 15 million or so from somebody, maybe even us. Biyombo is even more limited offensively. I don't WANT to trade Clarkson. But I realize to get something valuable, you need to give up something valuable. I just find it interesting that I think Philly would insist on MORE than Clarkson to get the deal done for Noel and you think the Lakers wouldn't even consider a straight up swap because he's that much better. Weird.
i think both can be true. la might not think he's worth clarkson, and philly might not think russell is worth noel. i just don't think noel has a starting position in this league. he's too light to be a center, and he always will be (imo). and he's pretty far from having the basketball skill of your average pf. we lament randle's offensive shortcomings, but at least he can put the ball on the floor, pass, and finish through contact. noel can...catch lobs? as for defense, switching and blocking shots is good, but boxing out and holding position are also very important. marc gasol and andrew bogut are considered by many experts to have as much or more value on d than on offense...you just don't see it like you see a spectacular block. maybe i'll be proven wrong (you are right, he does have time to improve), but right now, i'm just not that impressed with noel. i think he would have slipped in the draft without the knee injury, simply because he's a 225lb center with little prospect of becoming a pf. edit: after that rambling, i think he reminds me a bit of maybe hakim warrick? keon clark? a more contemporary example would be clint capela in houston, though.
If this was the NBA 10 years ago, I'd be very worried about Noel's lack of weight. But there are only 3-4 centers in the league big enough to give Noel headaches.
i know that's the mantra these days, but i don't actually see it. you don't see very many teams bold enough to put guys like noel at center for heavy minutes. maybe philly or noel's next team can be the first, but it's just not done. i think there's a reason--as long as there are guys big enough to push them around, there are advantages to be gained. last year's playoffs are a great example. mozgov just ran wild against smaller guys. he's a marginally talented but huge guy. going up against more athletic but smaller guys, he was destroying. every team still must have one, imo, which means nerlens is doomed to backupville until someone proves you won't get mozgov'd.
There's no way Noel can play full time center. He's not just thin, but his build doesn't lend itself to large growth either. He's always going to be thin. I think it's strange that they want to keep Nerlens instead of Okafor, but Okafor has probably made it clear how unhappy he is over there. It's been pretty clear from day one he wants out.
i don't think either has the trade value they're suggesting in the press. i'm not sure they can get a top five pick for either.
2016 draft class, otherwise known as the class with the best names. Dragon Bender, Andrew Andrews, diamond stone...
He's got a decent frame to build his shoulders, core, and legs. I know he's in the damn draft process so he has 1000 basketball workouts over the next few weeks, but he really needs to be lifting more than running. These kids are done a disservice through this part of the process.
