Official 2016 Free Agency Thread

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by LaVarBallsDad, Nov 16, 2015.

  1. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    In terms of salary, we could actually retain Young in that scenario, if we needed a SF.

    Russell/Clarkson
    DeRozan/Williams
    Ingram/Young/Brown
    Randle/Nance
    Biyombo/Stoudemire

    + our second rounder
     
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  2. Kou

    Kou - Lakers 6th Man -

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    I'm good with that rotation, take Maker if he's there as a project and let's go.
     
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  3. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Yeah Julius's numbers are definitely negatively skewed by that slow start. He's a stubborn kid and things weren't going his way so he'd force it. Towards the end of the season he was 100% better at reading the game than he was when he started. Almost all his numbers post All-Star break improved. He can be selfish when things aren't going well, but if we've got a good plan and everyone buys in I think he will too. He wants to be a playmaker like Draymond and to do that, you've got to pass the ball.
     
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  4. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Because I care about stats and all, I'll note that team has a projected 32.4 win shares for next season. Last year's 17.2 win shares earned 17 real wins. I wouldn't be thrilled with 32 wins from the team, but a few thoughts:
    First, this is just stats. They've never stepped on the floor together.
    Second, a 15-win improvement would be a nice step forward. We'd move past five teams in the journey from the basement.
    Third, this doesn't take into account a new system and new coaches.
    Fourth, in projecting young player growth, I've been conservative. DA and/or JR could have a breakout season.
    Fifth, I've used a method that downplays DD's and BB's season this year.

    I think Maker is gone before the second round, but I love the idea of a drafting a C. Even a prospect. He could learn a lot from BB.
     
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  5. tada

    tada - Lakers All Star -

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    Awesome breakdown as always, but I don't think it's entirely fair to compare DeRozan's efficiency to Clarkson's, considering what he had to endure during the season. Despite playing with Kobe/Lou in the starting lineup, and in Byron's dysfunctional system, JC was adjusting and started to peak in February.

    Using your formula,
    in February he consumed 202.5 possessions, produced 256 points, for 1.26 points per possession. <-- super efficient, then moved to SG
    in March he consumed 267 possessions, produced 268 points, for 1.00 points per possession. <-- takes role change hard
    in April he consumed 133 possessions, produced 139 points, for 1.05 points per possession. <-- starting to re-adjust

    I can not stress how much of an impact the role change had on him, and I'm not sure if we can conclude that "JC is most efficient as a ball handler" given a sample size of 2 months. (he was our starting PG until mid-Feb) If given a specific role going into the season, I think Clarkson will be our best player, again, next season.
     
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  6. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    I don't understand the Clarkson/DeRozan comparison and I definitely don't understand how Clarkson measures up adequately or even positively to DeRozan. I must be missing something.

    DeMar is a better basketball player than Jordan Clarkson by a pretty wide margin right now. I know DeMar can't shoot, but that's literally the only advantage Jordan has over DeMar. DeMar is a better rebounder, scorer, play maker, and defender. DeMar outshines him statistically in every category except outside shooting (although DeMar's TS% is higher than Jordan's because DeMar gets to the line a lot more) AND DeMar's team is in the Eastern Conference Finals so you know the numbers he puts up aren't empty numbers by any stretch of the imagination.

    Now in an offense like Luke's there'd be good evidence that DeMar's numbers would decrease in certain areas, but his effectiveness wouldn't. We have no idea how Jordan (or any of our youngsters) will look statistically on a good team. We all have faith that they'll improve and I believe they will too, but I'm not sure how anyone besides Laker fans can compare DeMar DeRozan to Jordan Clarkson and think it's an equal bet (and in some cases DeMar loses). DeMar is an All-Star who just dropped 32 points on LeBron's Cavs in the Playoffs. I think we need to calibrate here a little bit.
     
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  7. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    Hey cake and Lakers in the playoffs don't mix. Have you forgotten cake and me?

    [​IMG]
     
  8. tada

    tada - Lakers All Star -

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    I wasn't really debating who is the better individual player per se, but what the heck. DeMar is currently a better scorer and defender than Clarkson, but better rebounder and playmaker? I think you're giving him too much credit. They are equal imo.

    And you frequently bring up that DeMar's weakness is "only his shooting" like it's no big deal, but that's pretty much a requirement for GSW's system. How are we supposed to run a lot of GSW's sets efficiently when 3 of our 5 starting players can't shoot? (Derozan, Randle, and Biyombo for example) There's no denying his talent, but he's practically the worst all-star to bring in to our team.

    This is about how effective our team would be with either player in Luke's system. Not about the Cavs having an off-game and Derozan scoring 32.
     
  9. gcclaker

    gcclaker Moderator Staff Member

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    Let Whiteside have his cake and eat it too... LTLakerfan is still cool peoples. That side of Whiteside could be the least of a team's problems. It is the pouting and bad attitude if he is not accommodated or feeling so. Walton can't do it alone so a steady veteran presence to keep him calm would be necessary. I vote Bass who has been such a pro.
     
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  10. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    I don't buy DeMar can't shoot. Maybe in an ISO centric offense where he has to create a lot his % is not great. But that video below, year and a half old or not says differently. Good form, crazy rotation on the ball and he has dropped multiple 30+ point games in these playoffs, most recently against the Cavs yesterday. And he works hard. Look at the 3/4-full speed drills here over and over.

     
  11. tada

    tada - Lakers All Star -

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    Unfortunately there's too much evidence that supports his poor shooting. He's a career 28.3% 3-point shooter. and he's in his 7th year. In this year's Playoffs? 16.7%. Yikes.
     
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  12. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    He hasn't played for this guy yet :Magic Brows:

    [​IMG]


    JK. I see your point with the 3pt %. Still, that's puzzling with the good form. MAYBE in a better system with better looks? Still a heck of a talent.
     
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  13. OmarE

    OmarE - Lakers Starter -

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    that's also bc he doesn't take a lot I'm sure if he only focuses on shooting 3's in the off season I'm sure he can improve
     
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  14. tada

    tada - Lakers All Star -

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    I'm not ruling that out, but to be fair he's had 6 off-seasons to work on it already. JC is reportedly working on defense for the first time in his life. So in all likelihood, JC's defense will improve more than Derozan's shooting. If JC's defense becomes adequate, I'm taking him 10/10 times over Derozan in GSW's system.
     
  15. tada

    tada - Lakers All Star -

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    Yes, it is concerning. If this were before the Luke hiring, I would have taken him. But with Luke and the GSW system, there are much better options imo.
     
  16. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    I think it's clearly a mental thing. If you watch him play he doesn't just make mid-range shots, a lot of times he doesn't hit rim and he's only a step or two in from the line. When he is behind the line his shot looks much more mechanical and you can almost see the wheels turning in his head.
     
  17. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    @tada We're going to go in this circle for a while here, but I'll respond to the points you've made here:

    1. Rebounding/Shot creating- DeMar is clearly better. C'mon. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Not only does DeMar have the normal advantage over Jordan in that he averages more assists, less turnovers, has a better turnover ratio, has more rebounds, has more rebounds per minute, and has more rebounds per36 minutes BUT DeMar has done it on a Playoff team. We have no idea what will happen to Jordan's stats on a good team. His individual numbers are likely to decrease on a team that's not relying on him as much. It's easy to point to DeMar's usage percentage as a weakness, but that usage percentage has also lead his team to the ECF while Jordan's teams have won less than 40 games in two years.

    2. DeMar's shooting ISN'T a big deal because he's proven to be effective without it. His TS% is 55% even without outside shooting while Jordan's is 51.6% even with his shooting which by the way isn't a feel percentage point better than DeMar's. Andre Iguodala is a key to the Golden State Warriors offense an has a career 33.4% from behind the arch. Not every person in the offense needs to shoot a super high percentage from behind the arch. The problem with DeMar from behind the arch is a) confidence because his stroke looks good and b) volume. Harrison Barnes has a better shooting average, but last season he made just 40 more threes than DeMar who again simply doesn't take many threes. The offense isn't JUST built off of shooters and our offense will be adjusted for the players on our team. Jordan Clarkson is no Klay Thompson nor DeMar DeRozan so even if he's starting, the offense will look slightly different to accommodate for him. Jordan took over 4 threes a game last year which is probably a bit much anyway. Even Harrison Barnes didn't attempt that many. The offense is keyed off of spacing sure, but it's also keyed off of movement which DeMar excels at.

    3. The worst All-Star fit is 100% better than no All-Star.

    4. Why do you have to diminish DeMar's performance by saying the Cavs had an off-night? Really? The man had 32/5/4 in a great effort against a better team. You're downplaying his effectiveness to suit your argument.

    5. This argument to me simply doesn't make sense. I love Jordan Clarkson. I think he's going to be a good pro for a long time, but if he ever gets to the effectiveness of DeMar DeRozan it'll be a blessing. DeMar is a two time All-Star that lead his team to the Conference Finals. Jordan Clarkson is a 1st Team All-Rookie player who so far hasn't won more than 40 games total in two years. He's got a long, long way to go before he's as close to as good as DeMar DeRozan. This all comes down to you assuming DeMar will regress in this offense while Jordan will excel. You point to DeMar's past as proof he can't shoot, but assume something about Jordan's future that simply cannot be verified. We have no idea if he'll be as good as DeMar some day, but certainly he is not the player that DeMar DeRozan is right now. I don't think that can honestly and objectively be debated. I love Jordan and I think he's got a good future in this league, but he is at home right now and DeMar is not. That should be pretty great evidence right off the bat that Jordan is right now not close to DeMar's level as a player. If he was, we wouldn't have finished with 17 wins regardless of the circumstances surrounding Kobe and Byron. D'Angelo, Julius, and Jordan can be great, but they're not right now. DeMar has flaws, but he's one of the better players in the league right now. Turning our nose up to him is a big, big mistake.
     
  18. Kou

    Kou - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Well @therealdeal pretty much covered most of what I was going to say!
     
  19. Kou

    Kou - Lakers 6th Man -

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    I think the main thing next year will be to show that we are moving forward in a positive direction. So +15 wins, more development for our young guys, another max slot to me would be great considering what we have endured recently.
     
  20. ZenMaster

    ZenMaster - Lakers All Star -

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    We'll see.
     

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