Official 2016 Free Agency Thread

I've heard there's almost no chance Pau returns. He seems to be a lock to go to San Antonio and take Duncan's place.

 

Yeah. I'm not saying as a starter. But I think he'd be a great mentor for Randle and Nance.

If we keep our pick and decide to flip it for an all star like Butler or whatever, I think a Pau signing makes us more attractive to Durant or others. Gasol is the kind ov veteran a lot of players like. But I honestly think Duncan is retiring, and Gasol is going to step into his role.

 

If Pau wanted to come back and start, the Lakers would give him a ton of money to do so. Pau defensively was a different player in Chicago than he was with us. His blocks and steals both increased and his defensive win shares doubled compared to his last two seasons here. The reality was he wasn't happy being on the trade block every day and it negatively impacted his play. When he went to Chicago he played much better and much more like he played for us when he was at his best.

 

Noah has that funky knuckleball shot that he can hit from short range. I agree that Horford will cost more. Gasol? Uuummm... Yes, he'd be a great addition for the attributes you listed but given the tumultuous ending I don't think he'd even consider us. Maybe Walton can put in a good word. Also 24 is no longer here for him to take the pressure off him much like Butler in Chicago. Our young core is not quite ready for prime time yet. They have flashed the ability but they are still a year or two away...

My reservation would be on the defensive end with Gasol. Our core has experienced [and will continue] growing pains on that end which he cannot help at this stage of his career. Yes, Gasol will log more minutes than Noah because he can score more points but that is the only reason I see that is valid.

Black in the Warrior system? Yes, I agree but I think he would produce a bit more than Ezeli since he is more mobile IMO. More opps on the glass, better movement too. Heck, he'd probably give more in other areas than Speichts.

 

Yeah. Keep in mind that the season before last he was starting over Noah when Noah was "healthy." Thibs had enough faith in him.

 

Glad for Gasol...hate the move. He has Aldridge and Leonard to cover for his deficiencies on defense.

 

I know it's easy for us to remember Pau from when he stunk it up his last stint here, but he was fantastic in Chicago. San Antonio is a perfect landing spot for him with Duncan almost assuredly retiring.

 

Yeah. I mean, we can be mad as fans, but Gasol did act very professional for a long time while he was on the trading block (and actually got traded once). I think towards the end he had just had enough. He is human. But his first season in Chicago, he was their best big man.

Well, no one is comparing Gasol to Horford. It's more a question of bang for your buck. Gasol would likely cost 1/3 of Horford's salary and probably for a year or two less. That's why I'm mentioning Gasol. Gasol for 2/18-20 or Horford at the max?

 

Yeah. It's actually one reason I'm suggesting Gasol or a Noah or a Deng. Whether or not we take the next step is going to rest completely on our kids. And that step won't be until after whoever we sign this offseason is probably off the books. Rather than fill our team with second tier stars for the max, maybe the way to go is to snag consummate professionals that still have some left in the tank, but can show our guys the right way to play.

 

Horford is 29 and will turn 30 before the next season starts. Even last year Pau statistically was probably a better player than Horford both offensively and defensively. Pau averaged more blocks, more rebounds, more assists, and more points. Al has an extremely slight edge in steals and he also made one more shot per game than Gasol. Horford averaged 50.5% from the field and Gasol 46.9%, but that translated literally into one less shot missed a game: Al was 6.5/12.8 and Gasol was 6.5/13.8 shots per game.

The advanced metrics had Al as a slight favorite in DWS with 4.6 compared to Pau's 3.9 last season.

The point being that Pau Gasol is a terrific player and we'd be lucky to have him, just like Al Horford. I doubt we get either of them honestly, but we certainly won't get Pau and we certainly wouldn't ask him to be a bench player for us.

 

I don't think we have to wait forever if we have an opportunity, but certainly it looks like that opportunity is evaporating left and right. Chicago and Sacramento seem to be doubling-down for now so trade targets that might be worth it are looking slim.

I still take Horford honestly. The dollars and cents argument at this point will be moot soon. I argued before that Barnes hasn't earned the max, but who cares? It's irrelevant because he's going to GET the max. Horford is going to get the max. Noah is going to get paid something none of us comprehend right now (I'm predicting at least 40 million, maybe more). I've been on the DeRozan band wagon and I'm staying on it. I hope we sign him. If we sign him, Horford doesn't just become more likely but maybe more necessary too with his ability to stretch the floor.

 

Ezeli is definitely less of a health scare for me than Noah. But I'd welcome either or both of them to our team.

 

Could not have said this any better. Agree 100%

 

1. I'm not desperate I like DeRozan and I like his fit at SF. He's fine more than a passable defender. Does he need the ball because Toronto sucks or because that's who he is? For what it's worth DeMar's usage percentage (29.8%) isn't all that different from Klay's (26.3%). Klay is considered a very good defender and his defensive win shares are almost exactly the same as DeMar's (2.6 and 2.4 respectively). DeMar and Klay are roughly the same size and they each play SG/SF and they're both almost the exact same size as Kawhi. There's only three SFs in the league that'll consistently eat up a guy like DeMar: George, James, and Durant and that'd be true no matter how big or small DeMar is.

2. This "worth" argument just holds no water anymore. I'm sorry, but it doesn't. You all are completely missing the boat on what is going to happen this summer. You thought the last few years has had weird contracts? Get ready for a **** show. There's scenarios where 3rd string Centers might earn 10 million dollars this year and I'm not exaggerating. That could happen. DeMar is ABSOLUTELY worth the max because that's what the market value for him will be anyway. That's what the market value will likely be for players much WORSE than DeMar or at least in a comparable place. Just watch what Evan Turner gets from Boston. Just watch what Parsons gets from Dallas. DeMar is 1000% worth the max because the market sets value and the market sets his (and players worse than him) at the max.

3. I don't see how he's necessarily a bad fit for what Luke will want to do. The ONLY thing that holds him back is his 3PT%, but other than that he's a good fit. It's funny that so many here would love Batum (who will also cost the max). Here's some stats for you:

Player A: 44.6 FG% 33.8 3PT% 85 FT%
Player B: 42.6 FG% 34.8 3PT% 84.9 FT%

Player A is DeMar and Player B is Batum. Are they so different? To be fair, DeMar takes a LOT less threes, but still it's not like Batum is lighting it up from outside even though he took 399 three pointers compared to 139 from DeMar.

I'd love to have either, but Batum is going to cost exactly the same amount of money and will come with probably half the firepower that DeRozan brings. There's a reason DeMar was an All-Star and Batum wasn't. Despite shooting more than twice as many threes, DeMar had 800 more points than Batum this year. Their per36 numbers:

DeMar: 23.5 points/4.5 rebounds/4.0 assists/1.0 steals /0.3 blocks
Batum: 15.4 points/6.3 rebounds/5.9 assists/1.0 steals/0.6 blocks

 

There's no way he's getting only 10 million per year man. He's more likely to get 2/40 million than 2/20 million. If you're lucky you can nail Noah down for 4/40 million or something like that, but I doubt it.