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Some Advanced Stats

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by trodgers, Oct 9, 2014.

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  1. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    That's not a one-game rating. It's a cumulative rating.
     
    trodgers, Jan 19, 2015
    #161
  2. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I also would like to pair Defensive Efficiency with that number before I'd consider saying someone is the best player on a team. That stat is heavily influenced by offensive #s.
     
    trodgers, Jan 19, 2015
    #162
  3. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    [​IMG]
     
    LaVarBallsDad, Jan 19, 2015
    #163
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  4. thkthebest

    thkthebest Administrator Staff Member

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    2015 PI RAPM has been released.

    A couple of things to note:
    1. It can be noisy. You need a lot of data for rankings to start to level out.
    2. To a certain extent, roles have to be taken into consideration. For example, Kyle Korver's impact on a team is amazing. He's shooting 53.6 3P%! Teams have to be extremely attentive of him because of his off-ball movement and his ability to shoot. Therefore, his "impact" on the team (aka his RAPM) is high. This does not mean he's better than Dirk Nowitzki. Lol. Kyle Korver can have an insanely positive impact on a team, but he can never be the #1 option.
    3. The PI stands for "prior-informed". To put it simply, lets say you had the best RAPM last year. Then, you get something like a "head start" against the rest of the competition this year. Players without prior data (rookies) start out at a -2.

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/RAPM_2015.html

    Some interesting things.

    1. Kawhi Leonard is in the top 10. A lot of people say that he's just a good role player on the Spurs. People also say that the Spurs tend do well even without key players. While this tends to be true, it doesn't apply to Leonard. The Spurs have actually done poorly without Leonard both this year and last year.

    2. Lol Rondo.

    3. LeBron is still #1. Curry is #2. I think this is because LeBron was so good 2 years ago. Remember that this stat is "prior-informed" (I believe up to the previous 2 years) so LeBron has a "head start" on Curry. Despite this, Curry is still right there with him and has about 600 more possessions.

    4. Kobe Bryant and Ryan Kelly are the only two Lakers who are non-negative. Lol. Ryan Kelly's number of possessions are too low though so really, Kobe is the only non-negative player on this team. Ed Davis is the next highest at -0.2.
     
    thkthebest, Jan 20, 2015
    #164
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  5. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    G (C)
    Lin 76
    Price 62
    Clarkson 57

    WING (C-)
    Kobe 83
    Young 63
    Clarkson 59
    Price 53
    Ellington 52
    Johnson 50
    Kelly 36

    BIG (B-)
    Black 86
    Davis 81
    Hill 81
    Boozer 69
    Sacre 62
    Johnson 58
    Kelly 39
    Randle 21
     
    trodgers, Jan 24, 2015
    #165
  6. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    G (C)
    Lin 76
    Price 62
    Clarkson 57

    WING (C-)
    Kobe 83
    Young 63
    Clarkson 59
    Ellington 55
    Price 53
    Johnson 48
    Kelly 36

    BIG (B-)
    Black 87
    Davis 83
    Hill 80
    Boozer 70
    Sacre 63
    Johnson 56
    Kelly 39
    Randle 21
     
    trodgers, Jan 30, 2015
    #166
  7. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Updated.

    PG (C)
    Lin 76
    Price 62
    Clarkson 57

    WING (C-)
    Kobe 83
    Young 63
    Clarkson 59
    Ellington 53
    Price 53
    Johnson 48
    Kelly 35

    BIG (B-)
    Black 83
    Davis 83
    Hill 80
    Boozer 71
    Sacre 63
    Johnson 56
    Kelly 38
    Randle 21
     
    trodgers, Feb 3, 2015
    #167
  8. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Heading into this afternoon's game:
    PG (C)
    Lin 77
    Price 62
    Clarkson 59

    WING (C-)
    Kobe 83
    Young 62
    Clarkson 60
    Ellington 53
    Price 53
    Johnson 49
    Kelly 39

    BIG (B-)
    Davis 83
    Hill 80
    Black 76
    Boozer 72
    Sacre 65
    Johnson 57
    Kelly 43
    Randle 21

    I want to add some thoughts. We need some serious assistance at PG for next year. Clarkson is the only one under contract, and he's simply not a PG. If we're going to have Kobe on the court, I'd rather see someone who can legit handle the ball. I don't care if they can't do much else, but no one on our roster can do that. We need a PG, even if Lin comes back cheap.

    We're sorely lacking something at the Wing position, too. Kobe was our best, and that's not saying much. I don't think we have a starting caliber wing on this team other than Kobe. Young has been massively inconsistent, and he and Ellington are both best suited for a bench/spot starter role. Clarkson has been intriguing, I'll keep an eye on him, but to suppose he can be a starter next season is optimistic to say the least (we simply need more data). Johnson is a bench player at or near the minimum. Kelly is not a SF.

    We have a solid stable of bigs. Davis, Hill, and Black all look capable of playing extended minutes, and I wouldn't feel bad starting either Hill or Davis. With Randle back but facing really a rookie season, a guy like Boozer wouldn't be a bad fit on the roster for cheap, but perhaps Kelly is the guy at PF when Randle isn't out there.

    PG ?/?
    SG Kobe/Ellington/Clarkson
    SF ?/Young/Ellington
    PF Randle/Kelly
    C Hill/Black

    So many questions unaddressed at this point.
     
    trodgers, Feb 8, 2015
    #168
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  9. karacha

    karacha Moderator Staff Member

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    We could maybe get a quality PG through draft. If not, then a good SF for sure. With Randle and potentially Boozer, we'd be set at the 4. Our centers are perfectly fine for this modern style of basketball. Ed and Tarik can play heavy minutes, and Sacre is perfect as our 3rd string center. Which means we have to try trading Hill for another draft pick, if possible. He's a quality big and would make a difference on a legitimate playoff team. But I agree completely on our 1/3 situation.... it's pretty bad. If we can draft a good player and sign one star to plug those holes, we'd be able to complete for a playoff spot next year. I'm OK with Kobe/Duke/Clarkson at the 2, but Kobe has to play much less and have his responsibilities reduced.
     
    karacha, Feb 8, 2015
    #169
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  10. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    Clarkson is not a PG; I mentioned that in the Clarkson thread. He's better suited at the 2. As for the PG situation, there's a couple of different options; well, technically, there is three ways you could get a PG...trade, FA, and the draft. We acquired a pick and Lin during the summer from Houston which was a fair deal in hindsight. We got a pick out of it, Dwight is out for at least 4 weeks in Houston, and hopefully that pick will look even better by the time June rolls around, and I know Houston keeps winning, but maybe that will change. Plus, you could find gems later on in that part of the 1st round; Gobert was chosen at 27 last year which is where that pick is at for us presently.

    WTS, in FA, we have a couple of different options; Rondo or Dragic. I don't want Rondo nor Dragic unless it's for the right price. I know they'll take a significant portion of our cap space, but I don't want to max any of those guys. For the right price, though, I'll take either one in a heartbeat. Now, you have another option...the draft. I love Russell. A big combo-guard who could handle, pass, have court awareness, can shoot, and in short the complete package on offense, IMO. He's on a cost controlled rookie contract and would potentially be available with our lottery pick.

    Now, if we go in the direction of drafting, there's another point guard, named Tyus Jones from Duke; a pure point guard who might be available with that Houston pick if he falls that far. Or how ow about this? We see a PG drop late in the draft that we worked out earlier that we like and Mitch buys another pick to grab a PG; the same method he used to grab Clarkson. Point? Plenty of options, and I think we'll see an upgrade this offseason at that position.

    We doo need a wing badly...I haven't browsed through the 2015 class to see who's available. I'll do that later, but as you pointed out it is a big need. I don't want Boozer back, and I'll roll Tarik, Ed, Kelly, Randle, Sacre at the 4/5 positions. If I'm the Lakers and land in the top 3, I'm drafting a Center. I'll address the PG situation later on in the draft....right now, we're slated to have 4 picks. I'd pick up a wing or 2 in FA.
     
    LaVarBallsDad, Feb 8, 2015
    #170
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  11. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Updated heading to Utah. Look at Clarkson on the rise :)

    PG (C)
    Lin 77
    Clarkson 65
    Price 63

    WING (C-)
    Kobe 83
    Clarkson 65
    Young 60
    Price 53
    Ellington 52
    Johnson 50
    Kelly 38

    BIG (B-)
    Davis 85
    Hill 80
    Boozer 73
    Black 69
    Sacre 67
    Johnson 58
    Kelly 42
    Randle 21
     
    trodgers, Feb 25, 2015
    #171
  12. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Updated after last evening.

    PG (C)
    Lin 77
    Clarkson 66
    Price 63

    WING (C) (Kobe and Clarkson at Wing would've been our best combo of the season)
    Kobe 83
    Clarkson 66
    Young 60
    Price 53
    Ellington 53
    Johnson 50
    Kelly 38

    BIG (B)
    Davis 86
    Hill 81
    Boozer 73
    Black 69
    Sacre 67
    Johnson 58
    Kelly 42
    Randle 21

    In terms of the numbers:
    Lin/Price
    Clarkson/Ellington
    Kobe/Young
    Hill/Boozer
    Davis/Black
     
    trodgers, Feb 28, 2015
    #172
  13. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    PG (C+)
    Lin 79
    Clarkson 66
    Price 63

    WING (C)
    Kobe 83
    Clarkson 66
    Young 60
    Price 53
    Ellington 52
    Johnson 50
    Kelly 41

    BIG (B)
    Davis 86
    Hill 80
    Boozer 72
    Black 69
    Sacre 67
    Johnson 59
    Kelly 44
    Randle 21
     
    trodgers, Mar 5, 2015
    #173
  14. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    Lin's been climbing..almost at 80. Clarkson steadily getting up there, too. Thanks for doing this Trodgers.
     
    LaVarBallsDad, Mar 5, 2015
    #174
  15. karacha

    karacha Moderator Staff Member

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    Yes, unfortunately Lin is climbing and we've all noticed. :sweating:
     
    karacha, Mar 5, 2015
    #175
  16. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    PG (C+)
    Lin 79
    Clarkson 67
    Price 63

    WING (C)
    Kobe 83
    Clarkson 67
    Young 60
    Price 53
    Ellington 52
    Johnson 50
    Kelly 40

    BIG (B-)
    Davis 86
    Hill 79
    Boozer 72
    Black 70
    Sacre 66
    Johnson 59
    Kelly 43
    Randle 21

    LEADERS
    Scoring Kobe 6.38, Young 6.18, Boozer 5.93
    Passing Lin 3.79, Price 3.71, Kobe 3.59
    Hustle Davis 3.86, Black 3.33, Sacre 3.33

    Hill slipped under 80, and it's clear why - he's not picking up the Hustle points he has in the past. All of our other Cs are out hustling him all of a sudden. Interesting, I think.
     
    trodgers, Mar 7, 2015
    #176
  17. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Hill has played completely uninspiring basketball the last few games. He's fallen in love with his jump shot and since they're using him as an offensive weapon away from the basket his offensive rebounding has slipped.

    I'm in favor of picking up his option this summer and trading him away to a team that needs a mobile big man. Maybe I'm wrong, but could we package Hill/Hou 1st to move up in the draft?
     
    therealdeal, Mar 7, 2015
    #177
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  18. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    What do you think?

    Could use Hill (current draft slot):

    UNLIKELY THEY WOULD DEAL
    sacto (7th pick)
    boston (8th pick)

    NOT MUCH HELP FOR US
    boston (23rd pick)
    dallas (25th pick)
    portland (26th pick)
    bkln (29th pick)
    miami (46th pick)

    BETTER FITS
    atlanta (15th pick) - might be the best fit
    okc (18th pick)
    wiz (19th pick)
     
    trodgers, Mar 7, 2015
    #178
  19. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    I'm digging that Atlanta fit actually. Do they go for it? I think they might. They're in win now mode and they could certainly use depth inside knowing Horford's injury history. Yeah maybe Hill/25th for the 15th makes a little sense for them?

    I don't know, but I would certainly pull that trigger. Grab a guy like Dekker to fill in at the SF spot? Oh that'd be awesome. Leave the draft with #1-5, #15, #34 or something like that and we could have a young dynasty forming.

    Dragic/Clarkson
    Bryant/Ellington
    Dekker/Young
    Randle/Kelly
    Okafor or Towns/Black

    or

    Mudiay or Russell/Clarkson
    Bryant/Ellington
    Dekker/Young
    Randle/Kelly
    Monroe or DeAndre Jordan/Black

    or

    Jerian Grant/Clarkson
    Bryant/Ellington
    Stan Johnson/Young
    Randle/Kelly
    Monroe or DeAndre Jordan/Black

    I'm really digging those team. Not great next season, but in a few years of development and with the right acquisitions each of those teams could be dynastic.
     
    therealdeal, Mar 7, 2015
    #179
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  20. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    PG (C+)
    Lin 79
    Clarkson 67
    Price 63

    WING (C)
    Kobe 83
    Clarkson 67
    Young 60
    Price 53
    Ellington 52
    Johnson 50
    Brown 45
    Kelly 39

    BIG (B-)
    Davis 87
    Hill 79
    Boozer 72
    Black 71
    Sacre 66
    Johnson 59
    Kelly 42
    Randle 21
     
    trodgers, Mar 13, 2015
    #180
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