Phillies Thread

The Phillies will arrive in Clearwater tomorrow. I'll be doing a position-by-position look at the squad.

CATCHER
JT Realmuto (Arbitration Pending): best catcher in baseball.
Andrew Knapp (700k): not good; can't hit.
Deivi Grullon (Minors): Grullon is 23, can thump the ball, and can defend. Just has a weak arm.
Christian Bethancourt C (minors / ST): worse hitter than Knapp, a bit more seasoned.
Henri Lartigue C (ST): He's 25, not a bad player, but he doesn't have the tools to make it in the MLB probably.

Starter: JT Realmuto
Positional Drama: Realmuto is NOT signed. Get this dude signed ASAP.

The only thing that stops Grullon from beginning the season at the MLB level is a desire to not waste an assignment on him. He's clearly the best prospect who's close to the bigs. The Phillies have done a solid job with catching prospects, as they developed Jorge Alfaro as well. Grullon seems to be Alfaro with an average or below average arm strength. Neither is as good as Realmuto, but Grullon could be a fantastic backup. He has also played a little 1B.

 

FIRST BASE
Rhys Hoskins (583k): some brilliance, tons of walks, tons of strikeouts, and a lot of potential. He'll be entrenched at first base and looking to earn a big payday.
Darick Hall 1b (ST/AA): Consistent 20+ HR per season as he moves up the organizational ranks, suddenly started walking, too, last season. He's a promising bat going forward. Will likely have to show success at AAA before jumping to the bigs. He's 24.
Austin Listi 1B (ST/AAA): A year older than Hall, a little less power, can also play some 3B perhaps. Less interesting prospect than Hall, maybe, but he may see some time in the bigs this year.
Neil Walker 1B (AAA / ST): He's 34, but he's a capable all-around bat still.

Starter: Hoskins.
Positional Drama: How long will Hall, the best prospect here, be delayed?

I think Walker won't start the season in the bigs unless there's an injury, but that would create a bit of a logjam at 1b in AAA. Walker is good enough to be there, Listi was there last year, and Hall deserves to be there, too. That will be an interesting thing to watch. It's a case where positional versatility might help someone see more playing time.

 

The Phillies' offense is looking good.
That's 192 HR in the likely starting lineup.

C JT Realmuto .263/.343/.439 17 HR, 13 SB (3 ASGs in the last four seasons)
1B Rhys Hoskins .247/.334/.530 27 HR, 3 SB (27+ HR in three of the last four seasons)
2B Jean Segura .290/.348/436 14 HR, 9 SB
3B Alec Bohm .247/.305/.342 7 HR, 4 SB (finished 2nd in NL ROY voting two years ago)
SS Didi Gregorius .209/.270/.370 13 HR, 3 SB
LF Kyle Schwarber .266/.374/.554 32 HR, 1 SB (ASG last year)
CF Odubel Herrera .260/.310/.416 13 HR, 6 SB
RF Bryce Harper .309/.429/.615 35 HR, 13 SB (reigning MVP)
DH Nick Castellanos .309/.362/.576 34 HR, 3 SB (ASG, Silver Slugger last year)
Some nice new additions in there, and expect some competition from younger guys like Matt Vierling (batted .324 with 2 HR and 2 SB in 71 at bats), Scott Kingery (only 28, and only two years removed from a 19 HR, 15 SB campaign), and their top prospect Bryson Stott.

 

2022 Projections

1B Hoskins 509 AB, 126 Hits, 33 doubles, 2 triples, 32 home runs, 3 stolen bases, 90 walks
OF Harper 514 AB, 143 hits, 34 doubles, 2 triples, 35 home runs, 15 stolen bases, 113 walks
C Realmuto 490 AB, 132 hits, 26 doubles, 3 triples, 22 home runs, 10 stolen bases, 42 walks
IF Segura 538 at bats, 153 hits, 26 doubles, 4 triples, 14 home runs, 11 stolen bases, 42 walks
OF Herrera 467 at bats, 123 hits, 24 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs, 7 stolen bases, 31 walks
IF Gregorius 455 at bats, 117 hits, 21 doubles, 3 triples, 20 home runs, 5 stolen bases, 30 walks
OF Castellanos 581 at bats, 161 hits, 41 doubles, 4 triples, 32 home runs, 2 stolen bases, 45 walks
OF Schwarber 462 at bats, 107 hits, 19 doubles, 1 triple, 32 home runs, 2 stolen bases, 71 walks

Bench
C Garrett Stubbs 59 at bats, 12 hits, 3 doubles, 0 triples, 0 home runs, 1 stolen base, 7 walks
IF Bohm 397 at bats, 111 hits, 20 doubles, 0 triples, 8 home runs, 4 stolen bases, 35 walks
IF Camargo 216 at bats, 50 hits, 13 doubles, 0 triples, 7 home runs, 0 stolen bases, 16 walks
U Moniak 107 at bats, 24 hits, 5 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs, 3 stolen bases, 11 walks
OF Vierling 120 at bats, 32 hits, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 3 home runs, 3 stolen bases, 11 walks
IF Stott 158 at bats, 50 hits, 10 doubles, 1 triple, 6 home runs, 3 stolen bases, 26 walks****(Rookie)

Starting Pitchers
Wheeler 12-8, 191.1 IP, 189 Ks, 1 SHO, 30 GS, 3.51 ERA
Nola 12-9, 187.2 IP, 224 Ks, 1 SHO, 32 GS, 3.61 ERA
Gibson 10-11, 177.2 IP, 157 Ks, 1 SHO, 31 GS, 4.73 ERA
Suarez 9-5, 116.1 IP, 113 Ks, 1 SHO, 16 GS, 3.50 ERA**
Eflin 7-8, 126.2 IP, 120 Ks, 1 SHO, 22 GS, 4.27 ERA
Starters: 50-41

Team Projection: 86-76, 2nd in the NL East

 

In Bryston Stott's last 44 games, he's 34-144 (.236), with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 16 BB vs. 20 Ks. Add in 3 SB on 4 attempts. That's a .743 OPS. Not great, but he's figuring things out.

 

I think the Phillies have improved their team. Some moves.

IN: David Robertson
OUT: Ben Brown
Robertson has pitched well basically everywhere except Philly. He battled through just 6.2 innings when he was signed by them back in 2019. He was having a strong season in Chicago (3-0, 14 saves, 2.23 ERA in 40.1 IP). He has a shot at becoming the closer for the Phils.

IN: Brandon Marsh
OUT: Logan O'Hoppe
The Phillies need a CF who can glove. Marsh can do that. Marsh is also just 24, which means he might be able to grow significantly more as a hitter. His 80 OPS+ this season and 19 XBH in 292 at bats aren't impressive. Nor is his 117 vs. 22 K/BB ratio. His Range Factor and Total Zone Runs look great, on the other hand.

DFA: Jeurys Familia
DFA: Odubel Herrera
Marsh is basically replacing Herrera, whose own 84 OPS+ isn't very impressive, nor is his 42/11 K/BB ratio. Herrera was also a net negative in CF. So, it's a big turnaround even if the two players are a wash offensively.

If Robertson is a replacement for Familia, Phillies fans can rejoice. Familia was coming off two season with a sub 3.95 ERA, but his FIP told a different story (closer to his 4.88 this season than his ERA was). He has catastrophically handled some games of late, too.

IN: Noah Syndergaard
OUT: Mickey Moniak
OUT: Jadiel Sanchez
I like Moniak, and I hope he can get things straightened out with the bat. But returns on his first 105 PA are poor: .129/.214/.172 split won't cut it. He hasn't stolen a base, and his K/BB ratio is 41/10. He's only 24, has a lot of time to develop, but it was too good an opportunity to pass up.

Syndergaard doesn't have the eye-popping numbers in the traditional counting stats. He has only two 200-K seasons and no 15-win seasons to his credit. He has also made only 135 starts despite being 29. But his 3.04 FIP in his career and 3.95 mark this season are promising. That number would slot in right around Eflin's 3.84, and would be superior to Kyle Gibson's (4.42) by a good bit. He also gives the Phils more playoff experience on the mound (2-1, 2.42 ERA in 4 starts).

 

Wondering how strong a push for NL ROY Bryson Stott can make. I don't think he has a chance to win it, with two clear frontrunners, but check this out.

Pre ASB: .188/.255/.307, 12 XBH in 220 PA (63 games)
Post ASB: .303/.350/.459, 11 XB in 117 PA (30 games)

In August, he's 24-74, batting .324 with 5 doubles, 2 triples, a home run, and 3 stolen bases.

 

Well, we're at 87 wins, baby!

 

Long time coming. Really loving how this squad has pulled together at the end of the season.

 

We're going to the World Series!

 

It's been some time since I last posted in here. In the interim, the Phils lost a WS, made it back to the playoffs, lost, and have now clinched the NL East.

 

They're definitely the team I'm most worried about in the NL. The Phillies don't have a fifth starter, and their usually awesome Ranger Suarez has been limping toward the end of the season. Dodgers have too much offense for the Phillies. Dodgers/Yankees would be a great series, but I'll obviously be rooting for the Phils.

 

Phillies host the Mets in Round 2. Should be a good series. The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since the ASG (40-27). Meanwhile, the Phillies are 33-33 since the break.

Phils will send out:

Wheeler for Game 1
-200 IP, 16-7 record, 224 Ks, 2.57 ERA in 2024
-4-3 record, 2.42 ERA in 10 postseason starts.

Aaron Nola for Game 2
-199.1 IP, 14-8 record, 197 Ks, 3.57 ERA in 2024.
-5-3 record, 3.70 ERA in 9 postseason starts.

After that, they'll have some decisions.

While Ranger Suarez is an ace when he's on, he has struggled mightily since the break.
-150.2 IP, 12-8 record, 145 Ks, 3.46 ERA in 2024.
-3-1 record, 1.62 ERA in 9 postseason appearances (7 starts).

Cristopher Sanchez will draw the start in game 3 or 4.
-181.2 IP, 11-9 record, 153 Ks, 3.32 ERA in 2024.
-0-0 record, 3.86 ERA in 1 postseason appearance.

And the Phillies will likely go with a four-man rotation.

 

Free Agency: Catcher

Under Contract (All WAR from Fangraphs)
Realmuto 23.9m 16th in WAR (2.0)
Marchan 1/.8 Pre-Arb (0.6)
Stubbs 1/1.1? (0.4)

UFA (WAR)
Grandal (1.4), Stassi, Maldonado (-1.5), Maile (-0.7), Higashioka (1.6), McCann (0.2), Diaz (0.5), Jansen (0.6), Casali, Kelly (1.8), Wynns (0.4), Hedges (0.3).

FA Thoughts
Nearly every UFA is 32+. Even Carson Kelly (30), Danny Jansen (29) are close.

Carson Kelly has a market value of 2.2m according to Spotrac. He's 3 years younger than Realmuto and provides similar value. If the Phillies wanted to move on from Realmuto, that would be an option. I don't think they will.

Recommendation
It's time to give Marchan more opportunities. Realmuto still has some effective years, but he's showing signs of decline. His OPS+ has been below his career average in 3 of the past 4 seasons, and though he remains an above average catcher, injuries caught up with him a bit this season. That won't improve over time. Move on from Stubbs (424 innings caught in 2024) and let Realmuto and Marchan go 3:1 platoon. Let's see if the younger guy has the chops to take over.