Dodger Talk

I forgot about the double plays; they were definitely very handy last year. Could have used him more in the playoffs.

But yeah, after this season he's a free agent with probably his best days behind him (being a sinker/slider/splitter pitcher), so might as well sell high while you still can.

 

Ugh, neither the Kemp trade nor the Rollins trade has gone through yet. Lots of delay. Maybe (edit) Padres are rethinking about making us better.

 

Kemp revealed to have arthritis in the hip, that's what's holding both trades up.

 

DFA Kemp and Ethier and start over.

 

It is done.

 

Max Scherzer was court side at the Laker game tonight.

 

Throw him 200 bones and we're all set!!!!!

 

The more I think about it, the more I'm certain we're not gonna get Shields. Scherzer is still a maybe, but highly unlikely.

This new FO doesn't like giving out long, bloated contracts to older players. Simple fact. Yes, money is not really an object, but there is a always a limit. And having a team loaded with $20M+ per year players is not what our FO has in mind. It's just not smart business. There are big contracts, and then there are massive contracts that just can't be moved if needed.

They are confident enough to get the job done with smaller contracts and more balanced and spread out talent without having too many Andre Ethier situations to deal with in the future. Conceivably, we could bloat our payroll to $300M and press Start and hope for the best, but this is not what smart investors do. This is a low-risk, high-reward type of investing we are implementing.

For Shields, he is 33 seeking at least a 5 year mega deal. He would be the oldest pitcher to sign a $100M contract since Kevin Brown in 1999. His fastball velocity is still great, and he's still getting outs and issuing less walks despite striking out less. Great, durable pitcher, but he has thrown the second most pitches in all of baseball the last few years. How much longer will his arm hold up? The big gorilla, though, is that he hasn't been great in the playoffs at all (5.46 ERA in almost 60 innings), small sample size notwithstanding. At 33, will he really get much better? Yes, Kershaw currently has a similar ERA, but his WHIP and FIP are astronomically better. Take out his earlier years, and his ERA is better, too, whereas for Shields, his ERA would be even worse. . That is one of the big reasons why I'm not too high on Shields.

Scherzer, OTOH, is on another level and still just 30. I think the Dodgers should really try to lock 7 calendars on him.



But back to Shields...

McCarthy and Anderson, believe it or not, have pretty similar WHIP and FIP numbers as Shields, just injured more (lol). McCarthy has vastly improved since his new workout regime AND throwing a new pitch combination in New York, smartly suggested by their bullpen coaches. Both combined salaries almost match what Shields will make in his first year with his new deal. It's just that our contracts are much shorter with less long-term risk.

McCarthy averaged 150 innings the past 3 years. Anderson about 40. If we can get 190 innings out of these two, we essentially have a Shields-type pitcher on our hands without the long-term risk of him overusing his arm or declining in his late 30's. After all, it's not about the name or the money--it's about getting through as many innings as possible with as much quality pitching as possible.

Now let's go get Scherzer.

 

Well, no Scherzer, no Shields, no problem, right?

Ladies and gentlemen... your 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers!!!

My predicted 25-man roster, at least for the start of the season:

1) SS - Rollins
2) LF - Crawford
3) RF - Puig
4) 1B - Gonzalez
5) 2B - Kendrick
6) C - Grandal
7) 3B - Uribe
8) CF - Pederson
9) Pitcher

Bench:

Van Slyke
Turner
Barney
Ethier
Ellis
Guerrero

Pitchers!

1) Kershaw
2) Greinke
3) Ryu
4) McCarthy
5) Anderson

Bullpen:

Jansen
Howell
League
Hatcher
Peralta
Nicasio

Can't wait for the season to start! Pitchers and catchers report in one month!!

 

Wow, I just realized Scherzer's deal is $15M per... spread out over the next 14 years!!! Holy cow, that is financial suicide. No wonder we just said F it.

As for Shields, it's pretty much a forgone conclusion that we'll never hand out long-term, mega contracts to older players, no matter how good they are. New FO wants their starters to be young and approaching their potential, not on the tail end.

Fortunately, next year's FA starting pitching crop is pretty insane. There are probably 6 or 7 guys that we could throw big money at. Surely one or more will come to the Blue side. Do I hear David Price in our near future?

Here's a mouth-watering top 9 list: http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2015/01/top-9-pitchers-yankees-can-sign-in-2016/

 

As for this season, what we really need is a solid backup starting pitcher, because we know Anderson will get hurt, and Bolsinger/Nicasio aren't long-term solutions. Frias has shown flashes of brilliance (and has advanced metrics to back it up), but again it's uncertain. But hey, there are always surprises every year.

Losing some big hitters, too, will hurt us, but I know Grandal will make up for at least some of it.

I'm under the impression that 4 big hitters is essential to a winning ballclub, which means it's all on Joc Pederson. Projections have him pegged at anywhere between 20-26 homers, but I think that's a bit wishful thinking. 12-15 homers would be awesome for me, but I'm worried his slugging percentage won't be high enough to drive home runs.

 

10 DAYS UNTIL PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT!

In other news, James Shields signs with the new-look Padres! Go figure; he has a home in San Diego anyway, so why not just play right around your backyard?

Anyways, while Shields looks like a great signing to them, let us remember that McCarthy as a Yankee actually pitched better than him, and his velocity has been getting faster (unlike Shields who is actually losing velocity). Shields' ERA was great thanks to Kansas having the best defense in the league. As a Padre with their average infield defense and now their well-below-average outfield defense, I'm not so sure he'll be so lucky anymore.

Good questions. I truly believe at least both Kendrick and Grandal will produce good-to-great numbers. Rollins might take a step back because of his age, but he's a consummate professional and former MVP, so hopefully he'll remain steady. And if not, then hey, we'll get to see Corey Seager sooner!

I don't know if Pederson will be "ready" per-se. He doesn't seem to have the swagger that I've seen in other major league rookies who handle themselves very well. But hopefully last season was a good learning experience and he'll bounce back and be competitive. He won't have a high batting average but hopefully he can at least have a .340 OBP to go with the 12-15 homers I mentioned earlier.

 

Definitely injury risk is a concern, but I'm not worried about Kendrick (he's just as old as Greinke believe it or not) or McCarthy who only missed time because of a freak line drive to the face.

Anderson yes, but hopefully Wieland will bounce back from Tommy J, and maaaaybe Bolsinger or Nicasio can give decent spot starts. Who knows; Zach Lee and Chris Reed may make spot starts, too, and they can't be worse than guys like Paul Maholm and God forbid Hernandez and Correia. They just can't!

But yes, just one more decent back end starter would help me sleep better at night.

As for Rollins, we did let go of an injury-plagued SS in Hanley Ramirez. So relatively speaking, we should be better on that front with Rollins. And according to scouts, Kike Hernandez seems to be an intriguing young utility prospect for our bench, and can probably bring more to the table than Rojas.

 

Just like last year my interest will be 33.3333% of normal with no local television from these emm effers. Unbelievable and unconscionable. Vinnie SHOULD have threatened to quit as someone suggested last year unless they got their TV act together. Probably even that wouldn't have worked.

 

NOT COOL! I'm stuck with either bad illegal streaming, or bad MLB.tv streaming (using a VPN to avoid blackouts).