Cameron Carr Discussion

I'd tend to believe him on the consulting — AAU, WNBA, NBA, college, international. I don't think he'd like about, but I guess you never know, LOL. And honestly, those internal analytics positions don't pay what people think, and a lot of that work gets done in-house anyway. Camera footage needs context, and teams have people for that. Cranjis doesn't have access to that data, but he's found a niche and built a business around it — subscriptions, independent consulting, the whole thing. More power to him. Daryl Morey started somewhere similar and ended up a GM. Maybe that's not Cranjis' goal, maybe it is.

He's not my favorite analyst but he's okay. I'd put him in the same category as Irwin — fine for what he does. If I want a deeper look at the game I'm going to Raj, LFR, Darius, Jason. But there's clearly an audience for what Cranjis does and he seems to be doing alright.

Either way, I don't want to get more off topic.

 

Coming from finance, I see a whole heap of analysts that have claim they've created a new investment model or utilised AI or analytics to create some kind of technical edge or some kind of rigmarole. When you follow their track record, you find that their results aren't much better than a coin flip. I find sports analysts not too dissimilar - I'm happy they're doing well and so on, but I take a lot of it with a grain of salt.

Now, some of the other names you've said, in particular Darius and Pete are very good. If I was to liken them to the finance industry, they remind me of long term investors that have just a great grasp on the fundamentals and long term views and end up out performing the market.

Anyway back on topic.

I think Carr fell and should have been picked in the 10-20 range. Now when I say he can be a phenomenal player, I mean a great role player and a real 3&D archetype with all NBA level athleticism. I'm not saying he is going to be a star, but in a BEST case scenario he could be Bridges/McDaniels level player - but it's more likely he is a DJJ level guy.

Yes, I would give him 20-28 mins. We're going to run it back while adding a center like Mitch Robinson and a wing like Thybulle. None of the guys we sign are going to have the potential of Carr and Adou to develop into 3&D prospects. Might as well pull the bandaid off and develop them during the season, we can't compete with OKC or Spurs unless we have internal improvement.

Now I'd like to be wrong, and I'll be the first to say I am if we do something incredible in the offseason, but with the amount of time I've wasted procrastinating looking at the market and whats available - I doubt it.

 

Yep. Have to start developing these guys. I don't know how soon they get time (Theiro & Carr), but when you decided to give Reaves $46 million AAV or something like that, their development is critical & hopefully expedited.

You can't go a half decade without adding young talent, which is what we were approaching after our lasts two busts we drafted. Maybe Carr and Theiro can change that and give me some hope for the future.

 

Adou can be a high rebounding large wing that can guard 1-4. Carr can also be a good rebounding small wing that can guard 1-3 - but with really good shooting.

I don't know how long it'll take them to get there defensively, but both guys have elite athleticism today and can catch lobs from Luka, Reaves and Lebron right now. Carr has NBA ready shooting today too. It's all about the defensive end and that's on JJ and the staff - the quicker they get the reps the faster they improve.

We've got 3-4 years of these guys on rookie deals, we need to get a move on. Luka is going to be on a supermax in a few years and Reaves is angling for a 30% max too. The clock is on.

 

I agree wholeheartedly. It’s time for JJ to exercise some patience and play these young guys. One of the problems we’re having in the offseason is the guys we have like DK have little to no trade value. That only happens if you play them. The way injuries are in today’s NBA, it makes no sense to have players rotting on the bench during the regular season. Playing them serves two purposes. It keeps our stars fresh and increases the young guys’ value if needed as assets in a trade.

 

I like the pick, my guys were long gone by then. We needed a C who wasn't available or (who i think) would've been a reach OR a wing. We need that wing to be able to develop into a plus defender, but Carr said all the right things regarding that during his presser. He measures out and has the athleticism that he can become that in a couple years. For now, he's a 3 & dunk guy, that's still very useful in a Luka lineup.




Rob just added two zeros at the end of that rookie contract.



Lot riding on Adou and Carr long term so it was cool for Adou to show up.

 

And here's a bunch of reviews of the pick

 

I don't know why you're feeling so strong we are running it back, if that was the case Rui, Kennard, Smart and Bron would have been signed already.

I'm not making any usage premonitions at this point. We have more than half of the roster to fill out. After that, we can discuss rotations.

A lot to happen, FA hasn't even started

 

I like him already

 

Ideally you slot him and Adou as the best guys in your 3rd unit, in the 11th and 12th slots. Both unproven but with potential.
If you really want to bet on both you can't go further than 10th/11th. If the backup C is the 9th, you have Jake/Thybulle as the 7th and 8th. These are more proven guys that start ahead of the kids but both can lose minutes to either if they make the most of their opportunities.
I'd be down to that

If Carr/Thiero start at a base of 6-8min a game, that's 30 games like that. Than I'd say other 30 where 1 rotation guy is unavailable and they jump to 12-15. And 20 more games where multiple rotation guys are out and they get in the low 20s. That's around 10-12min average, which is exactly what Carter Bryant played this year.
That's around 1000 minutes, it's a lot of reps and you're open to the possibility of either eating minutes of Jake/Thybulle

 

I’m not going to detail the chat here, maybe I answer this question in the offseason / free agent main thread?

All I’m saying is, I’m happy to give these young guys a chance to win as many minutes as they can handle. If that means they’re starting out the gate - then so be it, at the same time if they have that opportunity and turn out to be only ready for third stringer minutes this year - that’s also fair.

Carter Bryant didn’t play much because he had Castle, Fox, Harper, Vassell, Johnson in front of him.

19 rookies played over 20 mins a game last season… 10 played 24 or more.

 

I get you, I think we want the same thing, I'd just not slot them in the 20 min range to start the season.

I'd imagine of the rookies that played in the 20s are either in non-playoff teams or have all-star potential like Harper, Kneuppel or Flagg, right?

 

I’m a fan of both Adou and Carr. Could either or both earn regular rotation minutes? Sure, but if either one of them is starting, it means the offseason was an absolute failure and we’ve got major problems.

 

1. VJ Edgecombe - 35 mins
2. Cooper Flagg - 33.5
3. Kneuppel - 31.5
4. Ace Bailey - 27.6
5. M Raynaud - 26.5 (Sac)
6. Coward - 25.8 (MEM)
7. Fears - 25.8 (NOP)
8. Clifford - 25.1 (SAC)
9. Queen - 25 (NOP)
10. Tre Johnson - 24.1 (WAS)
11. Harper - 22.5 (SAS)

The main trend is the top rookies get the most minutes and the teams tanking/rebuilding also play their guys a lot to develop them. But overall almost the whole first round averages around 15 mins or more.

I’d really like if both guys were getting 20 mins a game, it would mean they were good enough to be worth developing through the mistakes. They’re archetypes that are worth the trouble.