23-24 Schedule Discussion

Full group schedule for NBA tournament

 

Sorry Mikey

 

Why are we helping Denver?





Throwing us right in the fire.

 

mental note: log off the site for the first 10 games.

 

Strange schedule.They play with Golden State on January,27 first time and with Phoenix twice in first 2 weeks of season.

 

It is odd about the Warriors.

Suns makes sense. They want that matchup this year. Bron and KD have not played each other since 2018. Both teams have injury concerns with their stars, if they don't push them out early there's no guarantees either team is healthy for a matchup later in the year.

 

Another interesting stretch: Jan 1-28. Only 3 road games (1 vs Clipps) and the only one that requires leaving the state is for the Jazz game.

 

That rough for the Clippers as a team already load managing their stars. 25 incidents of 3 games in 4 nights?

wait, isn’t that like a 100 game schedule all alone with just those?

 

If they can pull off 6-4, I'll be very pleased. It could just as easily flip and be 4-6 though. I wouldn't be surprised at that. Anything less than that, 3-7, warrants a little concern.

 

Bored and there's nothing going on in the league, figured we could explore this...

What record projection do you have for us?

I marked through the schedule and have us at 47 wins.

 

Hater

 

feel like it's an exercise in futility without knowing which 20-game chunks lebron and AD are missing, tbh.

but 47 wins sounds about right (given those expected absences).

at our peak with a mostly full roster, i'd expect something closer to a 55/60 win pace.

 

Yeah, if we were looking to peak in the regular season and went full tilt, i'd add another 10 wins to my projection.

I didn't get very analytical with mine. If I saw a back to back without much rest on either side or cluster (5 in 7), I figured we'd be without one of them for the backend or non nationally televised game here and there.

I think the only regular season goal is to avoid the play-in and to be playing at a consistent enough level where you don't have to make a break neck push at the end to secure it. 4th-5th.

After that, I don't think we're going to be pushing for a top seed. West is very competitive without a clear favorite, I expect a lot of parity again. You'll have a jumble in the middle and you'll have these young teams (OKC, Hou) treating the regular season like it's the playoffs because 1) they don't know better. 2) they've got the legs. 3) they're probably sitting at home come late April.

SA and Portland (assuming Dame is out) are the two only really bad teams.

Did a tier listing too, showing kind of where my head is at with framing that record.


Here's how I have it tiered out (Drake style, starting at the bottom):
Tank Watch
SA, Portland
Utah
SA might have done the least after draft night and Wemby physically ain't ready.
Portland will either have awful chemistry and a cloud over them or a complete rebuild around Scoot.
Utah will be serious until they realize they don't have enough... again, they're on the heels of the next group.


The old Don Adams missed-it-by-that-much group

Houston, NO
Houston spent all their money paying for a playoff team and on paper they have it, it's just they're in the West and I don't think the kids are ready.
NO didn't get better, you can't be stagnant in the West. Also, I don't trust Zion.


Play-in
OKC, Minny
OKC flirted with .500 last year without Chet. Their youth's making strides. Wallace is going to be a big time rookie for them and SGA is gearing up for a MVP level campaign.
Ant is the real deal but as long as the most overpaid front court is there, they have a low ceiling and a clogged paint. Gobert is a f***ing bum. Conley is a year older and there's no one I trust behind him.

Clipps, GS
speaking of clogs...TOILETS! I don't trust Kawhi and PG to get or stay healthy. They haven't done it yet, why should i think they'll find the chalice waiting for them?

GS... they're old and CP3 is going to be an awful, ancient fit (please start him all season). I expect to see Steph in the playoffs until we don't, but I don't think they'll have an easy road getting there.


Anti-Beastie Boys
Memphis, Sac Town
Neither will have to fight for their right to p...layoff basketball, but they're going to be worse than they were last year. Grizz have the Ja situation lingering over their heads all year. That's the storyline no matter what else happens. They're going to have to implement new players (Smart), returning players (Aquaman) and then Ja whenever he's back. That's a lot of adjusting, readjusting and changing playing styles throughout the season. They're not one of this season's shooting stars.
Everyone...

OK, moving on...

Kings were one of the healthiest teams the league has had in over a decade. If Sabonis or Fox trend closer to their career average for games played, they take a nose dive. Plus, like NO, I don't think they did anything to improve. Can't sit on your hands in the West.

Just Enough To Stay Standings Comfy

Lakers
We know what we did. Had a great off-season, have continuity, rewarded every one we needed to with their money. Depth and balance. No excuses, but I don't expect them to kill themselves out there either. Chemistry and health are the keys. "Stronger as the season gets longer." - Ham


Regular Season Darlings
Suns, Mavs
I don't think the dozen minimum players on Phoenix can be relied on when the chips are down. They are the definition of fools gold. Injuries will hit and wipe them off the board. Until it does, they have enough offense to win relying on their top 4 to outscore other teams. That'll work just fine for the 82. It's going to be fascinating with Vogel because he's in a similar position Mike Brown was in with last year's Kings -- a coach who eats, sleeps, and breathes defense on a roster of offensive players.
I think Mavs had the best off-season in the West and Luka looks to be in the best shape of his young career. If Luka can keep Kyrie off reddit, youtube, IG live and as long as another excuse to be a part time player doesn't come around; they're going to be a regular season freight train.

Little Mikey and the One Offs

(Mikey from the Life Cereal commercials)
Nuggets
They're at the top until they're knocked off. They will be. They got worse and have to have massive in house improvements to get through the regular 82 grind. Can't wait to see how Mikey responds to them having the target on their back every night.

 

lol awesome.

i'd rearrange slightly:

way out:
SAS/portland: for same reasons

out:
utah: overachieved last year, don't see the upside here

likely out:
hou/no: again same reasons. they'll look good at times, but have different flaws that i think prevent the play-in

the morass (here's where we differ):

mem/sac/dal/min/okc: okc makes the leap now or never. if sga's real, they have to make the playoffs. i was close to dropping minny lower, but towns and ant are really talented. i have a hard time believing a luka team is that bad twice in a row. sac got crazy lucky with injuries last year and weren't as good as their record, which wasn't even that good. and for the 5th straight year i pick memphis to turn into a pumpkin (i have to be right eventually, dammit!)

talent and continuity win:

lal/lac/gs: we're new to this group. any one of these can fall with catastrophic vet injuries, though. and all three are at risk.

more talent and/or more continuity win more:

den/phx: i could drop phx, but they have good-fitting pieces, some of whom have played together. den can win 50+ games in their sleep.

 

Yeah agree with pretty much everything.

I think we finish in the top 4. In that group there's Denver and then a bunch of teams can fall there, from star-stuffed teams like Phoenix, Warriors, Clippers and Mavs to up and coming young ones like Sac, Memphis or OKC.
That's 7 teams from 2 to 8 that can go either way. I think we are the strongest and established of those ones so we are looking good to finish top 4.
Then Minny, NO, Houston and Utah Will fight for the play-in. Don't think Minny misses it so it will be up for grabs for the last spot. It's insane we were in this category last year.
Portland should have a year to forget and SA are taking it slow with Wemby


On GSW and CP3, I think people are underestimating them.
Yes it's not the most clear fit in terms of basketball style but it is in everything else. It's one of the greatest basketball minds going to one of the best teams ever assembled. They are all about winning and CP3 brings someone who can finally lead Curry-less lineups that have been their biggest challenge. They still had the best 5-man lineup +/- last year.
They lost a bunch of scoring so I'm curious who can pick up that slack. I'm surprised they didn't went after Oubre

 

i have gs like us: at full strength they're a favorite, but the likelihood of full strength is really low.

 

I think we are better equipped for one of LeBron/AD not playing than them with Curry/Green