Official 2016 Free Agency Thread

Just saw a video on ESPN about Hassan Whiteside being the DeAndre Jordan of the East where his stats look pretty, but his actual defensive impact is lacking. The Heat they say may be in the market to trade him. Just repeating what I heard in a video. None of it is my opinion necessarily.

 

Didn't the advanced stats point out to him being a great defender?

 

Not sure. Just repeating what the video said.

 

Interesting. I could have sworn he lead a lot of categories in defensive efficiency and whatnot. That's a question for @thkthebest though.

 

DeAndre Jordan actually was and is awesome defensively according to advanced metrics. Last year, his impact stats were great. His blocks weren't "gaudy" like Dwight's because the Clippers actually retained possession whereas Dwight would just hit them out of bounds. His rebounding numbers are awesome. At one point, he was all about gaudy stats, but he's improved consistently every season to the point where he is elite and arguably the best.

Hassan Whiteside was pretty average defensively last year in terms of advanced metrics. He's improved this season though. I actually read some stats that demonstrate how he improved drastically on defense and when I find that again, I'll post it here. In the meantime, here are some cool block stats that you can look at to compare (from best to worst):

BLKR (blocks per 100 possession)
Hassan Whiteside: 7.7
Rudy Gobert: 4.0
DeAndre Jordan: 3.7
Anthony Davis: 3.7
Tim Duncan: 2.9
Dwight Howard: 2.7
Robin Lopez: 2.3
Marc Gasol: 1.8

Hassan Whiteside pretty much dominates in terms of block rate. The gap is pretty insane, but if you look at blocks retained by the own team:

Blocks retained %:
Tim Duncan: 85.7%
Marc Gasol: 68.8%
Robin Lopez: 66.7%
Anthony Davis: 61.4%
DeAndre Jordan: 52.5%
Dwight Howard: 48.6%
Hassan Whiteside: 45.7%
Rudy Gobert: 45.7%

You can see that Hassan Whiteside is poor. Duncan is by far the best at retaining possession of the ball and nearly doubles Whiteside in this stat. Duncan doesn't just try to block everything. He has enough experience and smarts to know when to go for a block. Marc Gasol is the second best with Robin Lopez trailing by a hair. Many people would consider this a better metric for defense. In either metric, Dwight is near the bottom. Lol.

NBA also has a Diff% stat. It compares the FG% of the opponent you are defending at that spot relative to that player's average at that spot. Here are the best to worst, but I also added in defensive field goal attempts to add a bit more context and get an idea of how many shots these centers are trying to alter. Lower is better for diff%. Higher is better for DFGA imo, but this stat can mean a variety of things.

Diff% 2 Pointers:
Davis: -8.1%
Gobert: -6.2%
Whiteside: -4.9%
Gasol: -4.6%
Duncan: -4.1%
Lopez: -1.8%
Jordan: -1.5%
Howard: +2.2%

DFGA 2 Pointers per 36:
Whiteside: 16.6
Lopez: 16.0
Duncan: 15.1
Howard: 13.9
Jordan: 13.2
Gobert: 12.1
Davis: 11.5
Gasol: 10.9

Based on diff%, Anthony Davis is the best while Howard is better off being on the bench (near the bottom again).

Edit: These stats will also start to normalize a bit, but you can get a general idea of what's going on when a player like Dwight is at the bottom of everything. Lol.

 

Boom! There ya go. I knew Whiteside was doing big things this season. I didn't know it was a huge leap from last year though, that's certainly interesting. The kid clearly has a lot of talent. His character issues and the fact that other aspects of his game aren't growing is a little concerning. Right now we've got three thoughtful young men who are developing quickly before our eyes. Whiteside may not be a great fit if he's not of the same mentality.

 

The Lakers will be forced to move quickly by the way. We can't afford for him to sign that offer sheet early in the process, it'll mess with our cap space big time.

 

Some of them did, as I recall, especially this season. Then again, most of the advanced stats point toward DeAndre being an elite defender, too.

 

Under Contract:
RUSSELL
Williams
Young/Brown
RANDLE/Nance

Assuming that the cap is ~$90M, that gives us 67M to spend. Bring back JC (no idea how much). Throw money at Durant, with Batum as backup. Throw money at Whiteside, with Hibbert as backup.

MAX DEALS
Durant: 25.3M
Batum: 25.3M
Whiteside: 21.1M
Hibbert: I think we get him for less than max. Maybe 16M. Let's roll with Batum and Hibbert for now:

RUSSELL
CLARKSON/Williams
BATUM/Young/Brown
RANDLE/Nance
HIBBERT

We have 29M to spend.

Beverley got ~6M per year. A few guys got max (Dragic, Thomas), and a few good vets got only about 2m (Lin, Brooks). Can we pick up Greivis Vasquez for about 6M a year?

RUSSELL/Vasquez
CLARKSON/Williams
BATUM/Young/Brown
RANDLE/Nance
HIBBERT

We'd probably still have at least 8M to spend. I'd look at a legit stretch four (Ryan Anderson?), and I'd bring back Tarik. I trust the Lakers to make a good second round pick. I'd also (obviously) kick the tires on Upshaw.

RUSSELL/Vasquez
CLARKSON/Williams
BATUM/Young/Brown
RANDLE/Anderson/Nance
HIBBERT/Black/Upshaw

 

Rumor has it Anderson could be in line for a max contract this summer. He's right on the edge of effective bench player/starter and there'll be someone willing to overpay for a guy who they think will put them over the top. I'm doubtful he gets the max, but I also think he'll get over 10 million, probably closer to 12-15 million.

I love the plan though.

Batum is quickly becoming a high, high priority for me. Whiteside is definitely worth visiting as well. It's probably worth it to check in with Horford. I'd give Noah a call. Pachulia is worth a call. Something you might want to do is throw a max deal at Ezeli. He's young enough to earn it, good enough to start on some teams (ours), and it could potentially weaken our division rival if they don't match.

If we waive our rights to Kelly, Huertas, Kobe, Hibbert, Sacre, and Metta AND Bass opts out (he'd be a fool not to) we'll go into the summer with roughly 61.762984 million dollars to spend.

My first call is Batum who will earn 27 million on his first max contract (30% of 90 million). That leaves us with about 35.31 million to spend and a roster of:

Russell/
Clarkson/Williams
Batum/Young/Brown
Randle/Nance Jr.
______/Black

With that remaining 35 million things get interesting. There's a number of guys I want to look into. I want to call Brandon Jennings, Greivis Vasquez, Zaza Pachulia, Roy Hibbert, Joakim Noah, and check in with Festus Ezeli. If you can get one of them for 12 million, jump on that asap. I think there's a market in a trade for Young/Black to go get you a backup Center or a backup Point Guard, so focus on just one of those areas while there's bodies to grab. I would take a serious look at Brandon Jennings for somewhere between 7-10 million (assuming he shows he's returned in decent form after his Achilles tear). He's a stellar backup point guard to have, young, idolizes Kobe, and from what I've read this injury has changed his mindset on the NBA. Where before he was known as a bit of a party animal, I've heard the reality of this injury has knocked some sense into him. More importantly though I suspect he'll be cheaper than Greivis.

Call his contract 8.5 million in the first year. That would leave us with about 27.31 million to spend.

Now you call up Roy and Noah and Zaza. I've heard Zaza is likely to stay in Dallas. I think Roy will be willing to come for cheaper than max. Even with inflated contracts, I don't think he's up for earning more than 15-18 million dollars. Let's say he gets 16.5 million for 4 years.

That leaves 11 million and this roster:

Russell/Jennings
Clarkson/Williams
Batum/Young/Brown
Randle/Nance Jr.
Hibbert/Black

Use that cash to go grab an awesome vet like Noah or David Lee or Luol Deng. Suddenly our team is completely fleshed out with a young core and workable veterans.

Russell/Jennings/2nd round pick?
Clarkson/Williams
Batum/Young/Brown
Randle/Nance Jr.
Hibbert/Noah/Black

This is contingent on Tarik and Clarkson signing their deals last by the way. If they sign offer sheets, we're kind of screwed.

 

Batum should have 8 years of service going into next year, so he should get 25.3M.

If Noah wants to come off our bench, I'd be thrilled with that. Big fan of BJ as a backup PG, but I'd prefer Vasquez, I think. He's more accustomed to a backup role.

 

I'm preparing my FA pitch. It's 75% them watching me in profile.