You're partitioning the world incorrectly though. Most people are not NBA talents. Given that there are about 4 million births per year in the USA alone and about 80 (let's be generous) added per year to NBA rosters, that's 1 in 50,000 chance that a person is an NBA talent. Have there even been 50,000 players in the history of the NBA? No, so if even a handful of NBA players' sons have made it to the NBA, that's far better than the pool of non-NBA players' children.
I've said this elsewhere, but I'll say it again: If we finish with the absolute worst record in the NBA we have only a 64.3% chance of keeping the pick. If we finish with the second worst record we have only a 55.8% chance of keeping the pick. If we finish with the third worst record: 46.9% chance. If we finish with the fourth worst record: 37.8% chance. 5th: 29.2% 6th: 21.5% 7th: 15% Should I keep going? The odds of keeping the pick have nothing to do with our relative record and everything to do with the protection on the pick. It's not enough to say "oh well we're the worst team in the West so we'll keep our pick" that's not how it works. Our pick is Top 3 protected meaning we do not have much wiggle room at all. All it takes is 20-25 wins and the odds of keeping our pick are at best 50/50, are those the kinds of odds you want to count on? Last season we had around an 80% chance of keeping the pick and I wasn't very confident. Dr. Buss wouldn't touch these odds.
We ARE faced with those odds because it was unlikely we'd make the playoffs this season anyway. The point is we should not be tanking or relying on a lucky lottery ball again this season. We have very little hope of keeping that pick.
We absolutely should NOT be tanking. We have our young trio in place already. We need to now grow them and nurture them. The Simmons kid sounds like a nice player, but he's not an Anthony Davis/Lebron James type prospect. With that being said, it's more vital that our kids mature as the three of them gaiaing valuable experience will be more important than any "rookie" we add. Granted Byron can't help himself. He's watched "Fury" like 127 times.
Tanking is an inevitability...whether Byron is doing his best or throwing in the towel. The result is exactly the same. So choochoo motherf***ers, this disaster train has no brakes.
I follow college hoops pretty regularly, so I'm usually keeping stock of who is good and who isn't. My current mindset is pretty much that we won't get the pick, but there is a chance of it given how bad we are. I will repeat that I don't think we are tanking though. I think the front office honestly thought we would be better and that Byron really is trying to win but he just isn't a good enough coach to do so. I would be pretty happy if we some how salvaged the season to end up with the 30 to 35 wins I predicted at the start of the season but I just don't see any way of that happening. I don't think any of us likes this, but the reality is that we will be there waiting to see who is announced for the top three picks in the draft with the other bad teams come June.
Agreed. I just hope that everyone is on the same page here regarding the likelihood of that happening. I don't have my hopes up at all. If the Lakers want a 1st round pick this season, they better be trading somebody to get it because otherwise it's not worth counting on.
I don't think they anticipated Kobe being this bad and dragging this team down so hard. Full disclosure, I didn't think Kobe would be this bad either. I think they also expected Lou Williams to have a greater impact. I'm not counting on this pick whatsoever. I thought there was almost no shot at us keeping it in the beginning of the season because I thought we'd have enough wins to steer clear of the bottom 5-6 teams. But it's at least in the realm of possibility now. Which is not a good thing.
2016: Top 3 protected 2017: Top 3 protected 2018: unprotected So if we lose the pick this summer, then it's ours again in 2017 to draft. If we get the pick this summer, then we're back in the same exact boat NEXT summer.
NBA Draft 2016: Ranking the Top 6 Favorites to Be No. 1 Pick http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...6-ranking-the-top-6-favorites-to-be-no-1-pick
I think Skal Labissiere and Ben Simmons are your Top 2 picks with Dragan Bender as a Dark Horse Top pick. After that it's between Ingram, Brown, and I suppose Murray who doesn't look any better than Jordan Clarkson to me.
Agreed. I have liked what I seen from Simmons even though he is mainly just dominating bad teams. Skal and Ingram were both a bit shaky in the the Duke vs. Kentucky game, but I haven't seen much more of them. Brown definitely appears to have an NBA ready body. I think people are going to be a lot more receptive to Bender with the success Kristaps is having.
Yeah Bender actually looks better to me in the film I've seen of him, but it's such a crap shoot with those international guys. Porzingis doesn't look as rail thin now as he did in his pre-draft scouting trips. Bender looks a little bigger and a little more skilled although not the same kind of shooter. Also Porzingis just generally has "it" and wants to be great. Hard to say every kid wants that, you know? Still, Bender looks solid. If we're (un)lucky enough to get a Top 3 pick and end up with Bender, Simmons, or Lebissiere I think it'll be a good thing.
