Lakers projected to finish with 2nd worst record in the West by ESPN.

I believe a huge reason for such a low win count is because of coaching staff.

 

That smilie ^^^ ..... wow!

 

Portland, Dallas, Denver, Sac are all good bets to be worse. Minne should be, but their young guys could take a huge step forward. Utah and Phoenix are toss ups. And you never know if another top contender will be taken out by injuries like OKC was last season. If some things break our way, we are a definite dark horse for the 7-8 seed.

 

With healthy squad and Kobe( Playing 60+ games), we will win 36-38 wins.
With Kobe and squad not healthy, we will win 28-30 games.

 

That takes into account Exum out, that's the current odds.

Your right in that they will still be a gritty team and imo that's what will also be a difference maker for us and ultimately decide how many wins we end up with. Will we have defensive grit. This can go either way with Kobe teams where we've seen over the years some squads get apathetic at Kobe's ball dominance and in turn are unmotivated defensively and on the flip side were we've seen the '08 Kobe that taught the entire Olympic team to defend and help put in a defensive culture in our championship teams as well. Can we get Swaggy and Lou to defend or at least play into a team defensive scheme?

 

I don't know much about Lou, but when Swaggy actually zeroed in on playing, his defense wasn't half bad. He'll certainly be on Byron's short leash this season, so he better get in line.

 

I wouldn't count on much defense from Lou Will, but I agree with you about Young. His first season here he was on a mission to prove teams they made a mistake by not giving him the long term contract he deserved, and part of that was playing some very solid defense. With us seemingly not being able to give him away and his value back down, I'm hoping we get another season of defensive effort and more efficient scoring.

 

side note on Utah: my feeling is they overachieved last year and are due for a setback. if they progress, I'm going to be even more angry that the lakers let Snyder get away.

 

Yeah, I wasn't including the east but with them Vegas has BKN, NYK, CHA, ORL, PHI, MIN, SAC, DEN, worse than us, tied with PHX, POR, UTA, DET. If we beat 2 of the 4 we're tied with that would put us better than 10 teams and 20th overall seed and either 10th or 11th in the West. Back in the lotto but with no pick.

 

In rebuttal to BSPN BS we have this different point of view from new Silver Screen and Roll article.

Why the Lakers will defy ESPN's forecast and win more than 26 games
By Apratim Ghosh on Aug 20, 2015, 10:42a 18


Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

ESPN's projection of 26 wins for the Lakers' upcoming season is likely underestimating this Laker team's ceiling.

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ESPN's much-hyped Summer Forecast of the NBA's '15-'16 Western Conference standings debuted this week. The mothership turned in a scathing projection for the Los Angeles Lakers' record, declaring the team would achieve a mere 26-56 record, giving them the second-worst record in the Western Conference.

The #TeamTank enthusiasts out there may enjoy this news. The Lakers first-round pick in the 2016 NBA Draft is top-3 protected and at 26 wins, or the fourth-worst record in the league, the franchise would solidly be in the running to once again retain said pick at lottery time.

However, I have my doubts that the Lakers will flounder as badly as ESPN projects, or to the depths of the previous two seasons. This Lakers team should be able to win more than 26 games during the upcoming season due to three primary reasons.

Roy Hibbert

The trade for Hibbert was one of the central roster upgrades, if not the most important, made over the summer. The trade to acquire him cost the squad an unprotected 2019 second-round pick. However, the move has the potential to significantly shore up the team's lackluster interior defense

Last season, the Lakers defense ranked an abysmal second worst in defensive efficiency while the Hibbert-anchored Indiana Pacers enjoyed a much healthier eighth place ranking. Hibbert's Pacers shaved off roughly 7 fewer points on defense per 100 possessions than the Lakers.

During his stellar '13-'14 campaign, Hibbert ranked fifth-best in the league, contributing 5 defensive win shares throughout the entire season. His defensive plus-minus stood sixth best in the league at 3.3, and was fourth best in the league with 2.2 blocks per game.

Hibbert is in a contract year and has worked diligently this offseason to put himself in the best mental and physical condition possible. If he is able to rediscover his form from two seasons ago, the Lakers will have an elite defensive center on hand.

The team's perimeter defense will also greatly benefit from Hibbert's presence. Russell and Randle will have some definite growing pains containing the drive, but even Kobe Bryant is no longer an elite defender by any measure and may struggle to adapt to playing small forward. Hibbert, the verticality expert, will be able to cover up for their defensive mistakes with solid paint protection.

Hibbert will prove to be a much-needed safety net preventing what were easy buckets at the rim last year. With an improved defensive efficiency, the Lakers stand to squeeze out a few more wins in close games.

Pace and space
The Lakers roster has undergone a significant overhaul this summer. The new lineup is considerably quicker and far deadlier from behind the arc. Perhaps to Byron Scott's chagrin the front office has clearly constructed this team in the mold of the pace and space era.

A quicker pace is important because it yields extra possessions per game. The additional volume of shots created by a quicker pace and the increased emphasis throughout the roster on three-point shooters should lead to a natural increase in points per game. Incoming rookies D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Brown in particular excelled in college from behind the arc and in transition. The front office's additional acquisitions of Lou Williams, Michael Frazier, and Jonathan Holmes clearly indicate a trend towards attaining shooters who can spread the floor.

The return of Julius Randle will bring another infusion of speed into the offense because of his proclivity and skill in initiating the fast break immediately off a rebound. Even Scott has repeatedly encouraged Randle to push the tempo and run the break. In conjunction with Jordan Clarkson and Kobe Bryant, the Lakers starting unit should have four consistent ball-handlers capable of pushing the pace in transition.

There are of course some potential obstructions to this roster totally unlocking its small ball potential. Most importantly is Byron Scott's instinctive aversion to emphasizing the three-point shot or quick hitting offensive sets within the half-court. The Lakers' Summer League performance showed just how balky Scott's Princeton sets in the half-court could be.

Furthermore, Hibbert weighed down the Pacers attempt to run-and-gun last season. With Hibbert on the bench the Pacers were able to achieve 3.1 more possessions per 48. However, Hibbert has lost 16 pounds during the offseason in an effort to adapt to the small ball style of play.

Assuming the Lakers are able to maintain a quicker pace and exploit their new three-point shooting firepower, we are looking at a more explosive Lakers offense.

Health
Now my entire theory, predicated upon the hope and expectation that this season will be a healthier one, could come crashing down if the Lakers have an unfortunate repeat of last season's injury-plagued year. This Lakers roster is fairly young, clocking in at a median age of 27.4, near the league-wide average of 27.3. The starting unit itself projects averages out to 25.2 years old, featuring a rookie and two second-year prospects.

Thankfully gone is Steve Nash's creaky back and Jordan Hill's chronic bouts with mid-season injuries. This younger lineup should see fewer wear and tear type injuries that have hampered the franchise's progress since the Nash trade. In addition, Kobe Bryant has admitted that there may be a minutes restriction placed on him this season. If the Lakers' training staff can preserve Bryant throughout the year it will be a huge boon for the roster's efficacy and ability to improve its record.



That being said it is difficult to believe that the Lakers will lead the league in games lost due to injuries for a third straight season. A natural reversion to the league's mean should be in store for this year's Lakers squad. With more games played by a healthier starting unit, the team is far more likely to pick up additional wins.

Prediction
Given these factors, I'm far more bullish on the Lakers' prospects than ESPN. The team should be able to win north of 30 games, and if all goes well, potentially somewhere around 35 games. It won't be a pretty season at times and playoffs probably are not in the cards, but it will be a joy watching this young core develop and taking in what may be Kobe Bryant's last ride in purple and gold.


http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2015/8/20/9181063/la-lakers-season-record-espn-projection

 

Quite frankly, a bunch of smart people on this board including have us hovering around 32-35 wins. If you're really an optimist, maybe there's even a possibility of contending for the 8th seed. I have us at 34-35 wins give or take. The magic number to me is 40, though. Finishing right at .500 or just below with 40 almost doubles our win totals, puts us back on the cusp of the PO's, and gives us a real chance at landing a big fish in free agency. That's my hope.

Continue to tinker with the roster, Mitch. Get us to 40 wins or over, please.

 

The biggest factor for us is Kobe. Period. He HAS to be healthy, when he is, he's still one of the top players in the league. Without him, we're not touching 35-40.

Second is defense. I think we have enough guys who can score to really not worry about that side of the court. Hibbert will be the anchor behind it all, and he will need support from EVERYONE up top, or at least a scheme to funnel them into him. We need to work on the pick and roll defense and rotate effectively and limit open shots. If we can get to the middle of the pack in the league in defense, I think we'll be fine.

Coaching/Chemistry - I think we have a good bunch of guys here who are ready to give it 100%, no one looks like a slouch. It's up to Byron to bring it all together and make it work. I can't take watching the team struggle learning the Princeton throughout the season, we just need basic plays, pick and rolls, ISO's for Kobe, Randle, Swaggy, Lou, Clarkson to let them work it out and some simple movement off he ball.

 

Well, I wouldn't expect Kobe to be healthy. I think he misses a minimum of 30 games. So, by your logic, we're not touching 35-40. We were 10-28 w/him last year or something like that...not saying he healthy Kobe won't make a difference, but if I still think there's a reasonable chance we scrape more wins that last year even without Kobe for a significant period of time.

I like the additions of Holmes, Nance, Brown, Russell, Clarkson, Randle. I think we touched on it in the Nance thread; if these can stick it out, and make the team, we're easily more athletic defensively with guys that could defend along the perimeter and switch on pick in rolls. I even think we'll close out on shooters faster, rotate quickly, and give Hibbert some help. The defensive side will take some time to get together, though.

Basic is good. ISO's, pick in roll, ball movement, and putting these guys in positions to succeed. We have a lot of shot creator unlike last year. I don't think creating a shot will be a problem. It's the quality of the shot I worry about.

 

Just my thought/opinion, but I think Kobe shut down early last year and overplayed the shoulder injury. Seeing that the season was a lost cause anyway, he just called it and waited for this season to reload again.

The achilles and knee injuries were a little more demanding in terms of coming back, and he struggled a bit to find his rhythm playing spotty minutes. But I think he'll be a little bit more in form when he comes into training camp and the season.

 

I'm still thinking we end up around 35 wins. I just think we are too young overall to get to the playoffs and the West is still the West.

We need several factors to hit 39-40 wins - the Hibbert addition makes us a solid defensive team, Lou continues to thrive off the bench, Russell and Randle are solid contributors by the end of the season, Kobe plays at least 75% of games, Clarkson continues to impress, and probably most important, we figure out the offense we are trying to run.