Analytical Breakdown Of Wins For Next Season

Thanks for that stat...it gives me hope! I feel like we've definitely added players that can make a difference on the W/L over the course of the season.

Curious though, how many of the teams that improved by 9 or more were in the East? Not that that would diminish the accomplishments of those teams but it is significantly easier to improve by 9 wins in the East than it is in the west.

I mean the only complete crap teams in the West this year are Minnesota, Denver, and MAYBE Portland. And depending on Denver's health and Mudiay's NBA readiness, possibly not even Denver.

The rest of the teams have arguably more talent than us. I'm not sleeping on Sacramento. Utah plays well. I'd hate for it to be our cap, but 9 wins would be amazing considering we play basically 50 win teams almost every other game.

 

i'm sure if rodgers runs the numbers on teams that have higher winning percentages, conventional wisdom will hold--teams don't make big jumps, even after they add allstars. houston made a 9-game improvement or so after adding howard, but they started in the low 40s.

basic stats dictates that previous winning percentage and win increases would be inversely related.

in short, i think a 10-game improvement from the lakers wouldn't be at all shocking or impressive.

 

I was trying to get my nephew, who's a bandwagon CP3/Clippers fan, to bet me Lakers+20 wins against Clippers' win total. Whatcha think?

 

Why? In looking at the West you have a much improved SA team, a healthy OKC team and a Clips team that didn't change much as well as the Champions. That would seem to me to separate those teams from the mean further than bring them closer to it. The longer teams play together the better they get typically as well.

Overall I believe 32 to 35 wins would be very successful. The questions we have to answer are will the young guys be what the very optimistic predictions say? Will Kobe be able to play more than 50 games? Will Hibbert resurrect or bury his career? Will Byron be able to keep the team's attention if they start losing horribly again? Predicting these answers is impossible at this point. Assessing probabilities on each is possible but how do you bring that together to make a high probability prediction?

There are completely plausible scenarios where we win 28 or less as well. Not probable but definitely plausible. I'd love a 15 to 20 win jump but that is pretty hard to project with the "knowns" we have divided by the "unknowns" at this point.

 

35 wins sounds about right. The West will be tough as usual. Russell and Randle will go through the typical rookie growing pains, but I expect solid seasons overall.

Overall, this team will go as far as Kobe, Clarkson and Hibbert can carry it. We will be improved from last year, but not quite good enough to crack 40 wins or make the playoffs.

 

Yeah, I understand the principal of reversion to the mean. The Latin is where we may be seeing things differently.

I see almost nothing "equal" between this and last year in the West. Players returning from injury, teams having longer together and movement of players all would lead me to believe that there is an overall increase of teams potentially being better than last year. On the other side there is only a couple that seem definitely to have taken a step backward.

 

Injuries are often the most overlooked statistic on dramatic shifts in W/L percentage differential from season to season. While I agree with a prior poster's analysis of the teams that have gone plus 20 wins typically have acquired a future HOF, seems to me a key factor for this season will be injuries. If the Lakers roster had been healthy last year would the W/L have been the same? Of course not. While we have personnel changes, this year's roster going in looks much more balanced on paper as opposed to last year (despite the Kobe age and injury factor). Compare to roster of D12/Nash era - people were predicting 60-65 wins. Why didn't that occur? Chemistry perhaps but injury for sure. I don't have my numbers in front of me but I would venture to say that was a minus 8 win season. Ultimately, W/L does not matter for a team that is not built to compete and/or make the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference. The big question is whether this team has the ability to make a uniquely special run that takes them on a playoff run (which for now many even me say is unrealistic to hope for). That said, who finishes 1-8 in the West or 9-11 is largely dependent upon who gets hurt from year to year. Look at Portland with injury to Wes Matthews. In terms of predicting wins for this year - Kobe when he was in his prime and with not much else (2005-2006-2007) was able to get 35-40 games. Kobe is not able to do that anymore but I think he will be able to net 20-25 games in the Win Column. This plus Hibbert, Bass, Williams should net 10 games in the Win Column. Factor in 1/2 of our rooks being better than expected (worth 5 wins) and I think you have an upside (MAX) of 50 wins possible this season and on the low side (injuries, etc.) - 38 wins. Will 50 wins get us into the playoffs? Only time will tell. (By the way, my math and metrics were not scientific, but following trends like dip from 1989-90/ 90-91 teams to 1991-92 and 1992-93 team as opposed to difference between 1978-79 and 79-80 squads).

 

Hate to be a stickler, specifically on this topic, but it was actually 21 games.....




That makes 35 wins all the better improvement. I think we can do it.

 

.500 is not going to happen imo. Our young guards are going to be manhandled. Unless some major personnel change happens before the season, no way, even if a big pickup happens @ the deadline it'll be shocking to get to .500 with the West as loaded as it is. Wins in the West will come dearly and there are 52 games in the West, 80% of those will be quite loseable.

Now, if we jell by the end of the year and Scott gets that right combo and gets them playing .500 ball by say the last 20-25 games of the season. That gives us something to market to star FAs and will make me happy.

 

If everyone stays healthy 40wins is a must. Hope Russel and Randle perform on the level, meeting or exceeding expectations like JC did last year. Then in 2016/17 we must make playoffs...

 

I guarantee we'll be a .500 team, or I'll go to the mall and strike a C Bags fan repeatedly in the reproductive region until they haul me off and an article is written about it. I have no stats to back this up, but have a reliable history in such matters.

 

Clarkson is going to be manhandled? Have you seen him lately in the couple of months since end of the season? I don't think he's done in that regard. That means 3 more months before start of season.

Russell got the message. Yeah young and still thin, but he too will look less so in 3 more months plus the skill level by opening night will shock and amaze us. :Yes:

Understand your point but don't think "manhandled" is a good word for it. It's all good.

 

I think we'll be a little south of 40, 34-37 would be my guess. Still a ways to go, but much better than last year's club.

 

And have 1,000% more fun quotient ..... for soooo many reasons and stories