2022-23 Team Developments: News / Trades / Free Agents / Rumors

As expected, it was always either Sabonis OR Turner getting traded, not both. Who's the next similar player? Mo Bamba? Christian Wood?

 

bamba's been on my radar. what would it take for orlando to move him? his contractual situation complicates it, though, right?

 

He's an RFA. Wouldn't they want to get something in return for him? Or do they just renounce him and let him walk?

Idk.

 

occasionally, teams surprisingly renounce RFAs either because they truly don't see a future or as a favor to the player/agent.

i mean, it's unlikely, but orlando doesn't want to deal with some desperate team offering bamba 3/50, right?

more realistically, bamba's folks could work out a s&t that allows orlando to recoup something (you know, the opposite of what we did with schroder). could orlando think THT might blossom there (i think he might, tbh)? because bamba was drafted high (and hasn't performed all that well), byc isn't as big a deal in his situation as it would be for most.

of course, this only matters to us if we move russ or work out an extension with him that allows a S&T to be realistic.

 

https://theathletic.com/3351204/2022/06/08/top-25-nba-free-agency-2022?source=user-shared-article

The top 25 Free agents according to this list.

 

Ready for free agency yet? While the Warriors and C Bags do battle in the NBA Finals, the league’s other 28 teams are already full-speed ahead into the offseason.

Although teams are forbidden from agreeing to deals until June 30, and no executive would dare to have a handshake agreement before that time (certainly I would not have committed such a heinous crime in my time in Memphis, out of profound respect for the dictates of the Collective Bargaining Agreement), front-office staff are already busily sussing out the market for players, watching film and evaluating analytic and valuation models for the key free agents.

Speaking of which … I have a valuation model of my own. It’s called BORD$ for those of you who haven’t been reading the past few years, which takes my BORG (Big Ol’ Rating) system for rating players relative to replacement level, adjusts for improvement/decline based on their age, estimates minutes played for the coming season and then produces BORD$ (Big Ol’ Rating Dollars). (A more detailed explanation of how BORG works can be found here, although two of the key inputs have changed, as noted below.)

As with the past two seasons, I have to give a hat tip to two publicly available analytics ratings that build the core of BORG: the “DARKO” rating by Kostya Medvedovsky and the “LeBron” rating by BBall Index. My own PER rating is also a small portion of this rating, amounting to one-eighth of it for non-centers and zero for centers, and somewhere in between for those who played center part-time. (This was done not for reasons of ego but stability; PER’s weaknesses are well-known, but its ability to hold steady across teams and seasons makes it very valuable when the other metrics involved weigh on-court vs. off-court data more heavily. While its overall impact on this is small, eye-testing the ratings with and without the PER component showed it to be useful.)

I also made a few other small tweaks — adjusting minutes played at center (which are less valuable) based on distributions on Cleaning the Glass, capping the negativity of defensive values for significant players (a few of which strained belief and may have been too harsh), regressing low-minutes players to replacement level and allowing for an 8.5 percent rise in the salary cap this coming season.

Based on that information, I created my valuations for every free agent available this summer. I’ll have a valuation for every relevant player based on position coming soon, but for now, we’re going to look at the top 25 players — which, coincidentally, are the only 25 players who rate as worth more than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception (MLE) of approximately $10.3 million for the coming season.

Finally, one crucial note: This is a dollar valuation for 2022-23 only. That impacts the decision-making on a multi-year deal in particular; on such a contract, older players should likely command less than the numbers listed here, while younger players should command more. In the case of three- and four-year deals for the oldest and youngest players, the variation could be significant.

I’ve also included a couple of other categories this year: players who are unlikely to be free agents but theoretically could become one and had BORD$ valuations above $10 million; and players whose valuations are likely to take a significant hit because of serious injuries suffered in 2021-22.

With all that said, here’s a look at the top BORD$ free agents this summer, along with their projected value, option and/or restricted status, if any, and their most recent employer

Tier I: The Max All-Stars
1. Kyrie Irving, PG, Brooklyn (player option): $48,497,568

BORD$ doesn’t have to deal with Irving in the locker room, but despite his intermittent availability over the past two seasons, he still rates as a hugely valuable player. Irving can opt out of his current deal that pays him $36.9 million next season and become a free agent, where his maximum salary for next season would be $42.7 million.

Irving will turn 31 next season, so the out years on a four- or five-year deal for his max don’t rate out as profitable, but in the short term, the numbers say he’d be likely to justify a max deal. Even in his limited time in 2021-22, he averaged 27 points a game with 59 percent true shooting … and it wasn’t a particularly good year by his standards.

The other piece of this, of course, is what options Irving has besides the Nets. With the cap-room teams mostly rebuilding and not really needing a point guard, and some other teams turned off by the assorted sideshows that accompanied his presence in Boston and Brooklyn, the Nets might be able to negotiate something short of the five-year, $245 million deal he’d be eligible to receive.

2. James Harden, SG, Philadelphia (player option): $46,617,283

Harden has a player option for $47.4 million next season, and despite his losing a step and not being the MVP-caliber force he was in Houston, the numbers suggest he’d still likely produce roughly enough to justify the money. If he opts out, he can re-sign a new deal starting at a maximum of $46.5 million.

Things get tricky, however, when we look into longer time horizons. Harden turns 33 in August; clearly, maxing out for the full five years he’s eligible seems nuts. (That would be a $270 million payout, by the way.) One wonders how much the Sixers would be willing to commit here, and for how many years.

As with Irving above, there is also a limited market for Harden outside Philadelphia. He might be tempted to just opt in for this season and try again for a big payday next summer, when there are far more potential cap-room teams as landing sites. Alternatively, signing a longer deal at less than max money would go a long way toward smoothing out Philly’s luxury-tax concerns.

3. Bradley Beal, SG, Washington (player option): $38,520,130

Beal isn’t quite as valuable as the two players above, and if he opts out and signs a five-year max, it will be a whopper: a $42.7 million starting salary and a total of $242 million for a half-decade. While teams have been watching the nation’s capital for smoke signals of Beal’s displeasure, everything has long seemed on track for him to take the bag and stay in D.C.

Beal turns 29 in June, so in terms of age, we’re not in the danger zone, but the tail end of a five-year deal could still turn south on the Wizards; they just saw this movie with John Wall, too. As a result, one wonders if they could retain Beal with only a partially guaranteed fifth year or some other concession, which would still leave Washington ahead of the four years and $179 million any other team can offer.

4. Zach LaVine, SG, Chicago: $31,716,188

LaVine played the second half of this season on one leg prior to his left knee surgery in May, and as a result, this valuation likely came in a bit lower than you might have expected. On the other hand, the knee issue is something every team will want to do their due diligence on; you’ll recall that LaVine tore the ACL in the same knee in 2017.

LaVine is eligible for a five-year, $212 million deal from the Bulls that starts at $36.6 million for this coming season, which isn’t too far off his BORD$ value. At age 27, a new contract would theoretically cover his prime years as well … provided the knee isn’t an issue. As with Beal above, one wonders if the Bulls can whittle away some at the fifth-year guarantee, knowing their final offer would still top any other, but it’s a tricky game to play since teams like San Antonio or Detroit could have the ability to ink LaVine to a four-year, $164 million deal.

Tier II: The Not-Quite-Max Guys
This is where free agency really starts: The three young players from the 2018 draft who between them have not made a single All-Star Game but could combine to make several in the near future. I’m not sure any of the three are worth the full max, but all have BORD$ values close enough to the “low” max ($30.5 million) to make it an interesting debate. Additionally, at least one of the three appears to be much more gettable than the four All-Stars above:

5. Deandre Ayton, C, Phoenix (restricted): $31,406,061

Phoenix surprisingly didn’t extend Ayton before last season and seems reluctant to pay him the max after the Suns fizzled in the playoffs. Sign-and-trading him instead could also help the Suns skip the luxury tax, both in 2022-23 and the two seasons that follow, while the idea of getting some added size at the forward spots is much more possible if Ayton is the trade bait.

As a result, the chatter is increasing that Ayton may indeed be available, in particular, if a sign-and-trade scenario develops that lets Phoenix bring back talent. (A straight offer sheet would likely just be matched by the Suns, who could always turn around and trade Ayton later; they really have no outs if Ayton leaves uncompensated.) One note on a sign-and-trade: Phoenix can only bring back about $20 million in salary on an Ayton sign-and-trade, even if he is paid the max, because of the so-called Base-Year Compensation rule. (The CBA stopped referring to it this way, but most folks in the league still do.)

As to the question of how much he’s worth: Even in my valuation system that devalues centers pretty strongly, the numbers suggest Ayton is worth the bite of the apple. My eye test also suspects he could be a more impactful scorer someplace else, with a pretty deadly midrange game for a player of his size. Finally, Ayton will be 24 next season, so this contract should cover some of his best seasons. Going long on a deal for him could produce additional value if he keeps improving.

6. Miles Bridges, PF, Charlotte (restricted): $30,940,550

Bridges is a fascinating study this offseason because BORD$ says he’s worth pretty close to the max, but it seems unlikely his price will get quite that high due to his restricted status and the apparent lack of other suitors.

Even potential offer-sheet spoilers like San Antonio or Detroit seem to have their eyes more focused on other targets; they could return to Bridges later in the process, but having their money on ice while Charlotte waits to match (and then likely inevitably does) is a pretty significant deterrent … especially in a market where free agency has played out with remarkable (some would even say “unfathomable” given the rules) speed.

Where that leads is likely a four- or five-year deal to return to Charlotte in the $25 million a year range, give or take a few drachmae. If so, the Hornets will have some interesting decisions to make further down the roster as they try to skirt the luxury tax.

7. Jalen Brunson, PG, Dallas: $29,371,294

Brunson’s strong playoff run for the Mavericks seemingly silenced some of the chatter that A) Dallas might be willing to let him walk, and B) another team could get him for well below the max. Now it seems like any serious offer would have to be for at least $100 million over the next four years, somewhat limiting the potential suitors given the greater difficulty of meeting that threshold in a sign-and-trade. (If you’re wondering about the Knicks, for instance, they’d have to dangle a lot of not terribly desirable filler in front of the Mavs to get a deal done. Good luck with that.)

As a small guard coming off a career year, this BORD$ valuation is likely at the high end of where the league sees Brunson, but he should be able to get into the $25 million a year range.

The more interesting question is what this might do for Dallas’ plans. Increasing his salary from last year’s paltry $1.8 million to such a princely sum will also put the Mavs about $30 million over the luxury-tax line and produce a whopping $85 million check to the league. Something’s gotta give here.

Tier III: The Weirdos
There’s a giant dip in the quality of the free-agent market after the seventh-ranked Brunson; a staggering drop of nearly $10 million BORD$ value between Nos. 7 and 8. Furthermore, the next three highest-ranked players are unlikely to get paid the values that my method assigned to them.

In each case, the issue is that BORD$ loves these guys while NBA teams … like them OK. Each of them is just quirky enough to not fit neatly into standard team-building definitions, requiring a bit more finesse from coaching staffs to maximize their contributions.

And yet … the numbers say each of these three was quite valuable and will likely represent a win when they inevitably sign for less than these numbers.

8. Chris Boucher, C, Toronto: $19,782,672

One of the Raptors’ several weird kind-of-big guys off the bench who toggled between hazily defined positions, Boucher is a difficult player to define, and that may limit his free-agent market. He’s a top-notch shot blocker but undersized for the middle at just 200 pounds. He’s a sort-of floor spacer with a 33.5 percent career mark from 3 but is more comfortable doing his damage in the paint, where he shoots 58.6 percent for his career. He’s not a threat to post up due to his skinny frame, and he’s not a threat to pass ever.

And yet … Boucher is 29 years old, has a career PER of 20.0, had the best net rating of any player on a 48-win team and despite his thin frame had a massively positive impact on the Raptors’ rebounding in particular.

Is that package worth paying as a starter? That’s where a lot of teams would hesitate, I suspect, and that’s why I think Boucher’s market settles in at or just above the non-taxpayer MLE despite BORD$ giving him a much higher valuation.

9. Bruce Brown, SF, Brooklyn, $19,043,654

Brown is an “-and-D” guy with the “3” part mostly missing, but that doesn’t make him a zero on offense. He’s a good passer and excels playing out of the short roll as a fake five, plus he’s a solid finisher who has converted nearly 70 percent of his chances at the rim the last two seasons. He’s also only 25 and shot 40.4 percent on his limited 3-point attempts a year ago, offering the promise of further upside.

Brown was a free agent last year and had to settle for re-signing for the $4.7 million qualifying offer, indicating that the market doesn’t value him the way BORD$ does. Nonetheless, he should be a top target for any team with the non-taxpayer MLE.

10. Kyle Anderson, PF, Memphis, $18,990,342

This number will likely surprise people who have seen Anderson’s role fluctuate throughout his career, including just 21 minutes a game this season in Memphis. However, the numbers say he’s been extremely effective whenever he’s played, especially on defense, where his size and fast hands make him a plus across multiple positions. (Full disclosure: I was in the Grizzlies’ front office when Anderson signed his four-year, $37 million offer sheet that is now expiring.)

As with Brown above, Slo-Mo isn’t everybody’s cup of tea because he doesn’t fit in with preconceived ideas about role players who stand in the corner. He’s a 33 percent career shooter from distance and needs nearly the entire shot clock to load up his delivery. He’s much more effective playing on the ball, playing in transition or slashing to the cup in random offense, and it feels like each of his coaches has needed an adjustment period to figure out what the heck to do with him.

That said, Anderson is a near-point-guard-caliber ballhandler who also instantly improves any defense he joins and is a solid rebounder at either end. I think he’ll end up a bargain on the midlevel deal he’s likely getting; just to max out the funkiness, I’d love to see him end up in Toronto in a lineup of nothing but 6-9 guys.


Bruce Brown goes up for a layup as Chris Boucher defends. (John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)
TIER IV: The Centers
Valuing non-All-Star big men in the current NBA has become more art than science, with value hinging heavily on roster composition and the eye of the beholder. Two players in particular, however, are likely to get paid as starting centers.

11. Mitchell Robinson, C, New York (restricted): $18,862,212

Robinson supported the idea of paying him like a starting five by staying in the lineup for 72 games last season; the 7-footer also is in the rare position of being an unrestricted free agent at just 24 years old. His athleticism is such that he shoots 72.2 percent for his career and has blocked 7.7 percent of opponent shots in that time, making him an ideal candidate for the shot-blocker/rim-runner role.

So what’s the hold-up? There’s some concern that Robinson has bulked up too much (playing last year at 270 pounds) and that it’s taken away some of the bounciness that had been his best attribute. Additionally, with no skill level or shooting range to speak of, Robinson can be a very limited option offensively, with last season’s 11.4 percent usage rate serving as a prime example.

Overall, I’ll take the under on his BORD$ estimate, even with the upside of his age, but I do think he settles into a deal not too far below this amount annually.

12. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Portland: $17,414,518

In theory, there are cap-room scenarios where the Blazers let Nurkic walk to have the space to chase other players. In reality, Portland’s best play by far would be to re-sign Nurkic at a number in the mid-teens and use its other cap options (including a huge trade exception) to rebuild the team this offseason.

Nurkic seems mostly recovered from a devastating leg injury two years ago and was just rounding into form last winter when the Blazers’ season went off the rails. He turns 28 in August and has consistently put up mid-tier starting center numbers, so this one doesn’t feel particularly risky either. The only real question is whether another team tries to get involved in the bidding and nab him away from Portland, and how high that number would have to go to be successful.

Special interlude: The guys who won’t be free agents
In the process of generating BORD$ values for the players who will be free agents this summer, I also generated them for all the players who won’t be free agents … including a few who in theory could come on the market this summer. In reality, you have better odds of seeing Sasquatch than any of these five players in free agency:

• Russell Westbrook, PG, Lakers: $17,347,955 — Westbrook has a player option that he could use to opt out of his final year at $47 million. Tough call, huh? While it’s possible he could be traded and then waived by his new team, by far the most likely outcome at this point is his return to L.A.
• Al Horford, C, Boston: $16,679,111 — Remember earlier this year when we were discussing whether Boston would pick up its partial guarantee on Horford next year? That was fun. As a result of Boston winning the East, $19.5 million of next year’s $26.5 million is now guaranteed anyway; it becomes a full guarantee if the C Bags beat Golden State in the finals.
• Josh Hart, SG, Portland: $16,485,487 — Hart’s $12 million deal for 2022-23 is non-guaranteed, and Portland does have some cap-room scenarios if it lets him go, but even in that scenario, it is much more likely he is traded rather than actually released. (He’d also be fairly likely to be claimed on waivers even if he were cut.)
• Jae’Sean Tate, PF, Houston: $13,343,341 — BORD$ seems to love defensive role players (see Brown and Anderson above) more than the market does, but there is no scenario where Houston bails on paying Tate his paltry $1.78 million team option for the coming season. The bigger question is whether to extend him and at what price.
• Ivica Zubac, C, Clippers: $10,680,330 — The Clippers have a $7.5 million team option on Zubac for next year and no realistic means of replacing him in the middle if they let him go, especially since backup Isaiah Hartenstein may be skipping town.

TIER V: The above-MLE guys
These players have shown themselves to be worth more than the non-taxpayer MLE of roughly $10 million for the coming season, but whether they actually get it is an open question given the dynamics of the market:

13. Otto Porter Jr., SF, Golden State: $16,603,510

Porter Jr. won’t command this high a salary in real life because of concerns about his frequent injuries. In the last four seasons, he’s missed nearly as many games (140) as he’s played (162), and even in his “healthy” year for Golden State in 2021-22, he only played 63 regular-season games.

On the other hand, a credible defender at the two forward spots who knows how to play and shoots 39.8 percent career from 3 should have considerable value, especially since he’s still only 29.

While I don’t expect anybody to roll the dice on a longer deal given the continued questions about his physical well-being, a “one+one” type contract for the non-taxpayer MLE — signing him for 2022-23 with a player option for 2023-24 — would be a smart move for a contender below the tax line.

14. Malik Monk, SG, Lakers: $16,511,722

Surprised? Don’t be. Monk is one of the few entries on the brief list entitled, “Things the Lakers did right in the summer of 2021.” A year later, he is one of the rare free agents who is both young and unrestricted; he’s only 24. He also comes off consecutive years where he shot 40.1 percent and 39.1 percent from 3, and last season he was far more efficient inside the arc (56.8 percent on 2s!) than he’d ever been before.

That said, one can fairly wonder if this BORD$ valuation is influenced a little too heavily by Monk’s sterling on-off differential for the Lakers last season. Monk is undersized for a two, can’t play point and, although he improved last year, still struggles on defense. All of that is perhaps a reason to keep an MLE lid on his free-agent offers. But in a league increasingly tilted toward offense, he’s one of the real sleepers in free agency, especially since there may be further scoring upside to tap.

15. Bobby Portis, C, Milwaukee, (player option): $15,793,989

Bob-by! Bob-by! The crowd favorite re-signed for a fraction of his worth a year ago and surely will decline his $4.56 million player option to secure a bigger payday this time around. With Milwaukee having early Bird rights, the Bucks can offer him roughly $12 million a year on a multi-year deal, and I’m not sure the bidding goes higher than that given the paucity of cap-room teams this year.

16. Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Sacramento, (restricted): $15,551,549

DiVincenzo is a good bet to get paid something close to what he’s worth given the sunk cost involved in the Kings’ trading for him in the first place, and the fact Sacramento has full Bird rights to go over the MLE.

As a 25-year-old guard who may be able to ramp up his usage on a lesser team than the Bucks (where he played until his midseason trade in 2022), he seems like a good upside play if he can just straighten out his shooting a bit. The only potential fly in the ointment would be if the Kings take Jaden Ivey with the fourth pick in the draft, crowding the backcourt and potentially pushing DiVincenzo to the side.


Will Donte DiVincenzo return to Sacramento? (Darren Yamashita / USA Today)
Second interlude: The injury guys
These four players will be free agents this summer and have BORD$ valuations at or above the midlevel. However, my formula doesn’t know they suffered serious injuries that likely will knock down their valuations considerably:

• Danny Green, SG, Philadelphia: $15,490,585 — Green has a non-guaranteed deal for $10 million and almost certainly will be waived by the Sixers after tearing his ACL in the playoffs. He’s likely to miss most or all of the coming season, so I would not expect much of a push to sign him in free agency.
• Ricky Rubio, PG, Indiana: $15,475,962 — Rubio didn’t play a game for the Pacers last year; he was traded there by Cleveland after tearing his left ACL in late December. While he’ll likely return at some point this coming season, he turns 32 this fall, and it’s his second ACL tear in the same knee.
• Joe Ingles, SF, Portland: $14,873,104 — Similar to Rubio above, Jose English didn’t play a game for the Blazers but was sent there by Utah after tearing his ACL in late January. Ingles also turns 35 in October.
• T.J. Warren, PF, Indiana: $9,439,768 — Warren has only played four games in the last two years because of a stress fracture in his left foot and a recovery that moved at a snail’s pace, but he has legit value if he’s back at full strength. Teams likely will be doing their due diligence on his recovery and discounting accordingly.

TIER VI: The rest of the MLE-and-above pack
A couple of these players will likely get offers in the mid-teens, especially the younger cohort. The rest, however, profile more as veterans who would be worthwhile pursuits on a short deal for the full MLE but become more questionable propositions at higher prices.

17. Montrezl Harrell, C, Charlotte: $14,730,416

Harrell was awesome in the first several weeks of 2021-22 for Washington but gradually fell out of favor, in large part because he’s such a suspect defender. That same concern would likely prevent any team from paying him as a starter, which is why I think his contact again settles in at the full non-taxpayer MLE for a team looking for a bench boost. Harrell has been down this road before: His last two forays into free agency also resulted in short-term deals for the full MLE.

18. Delon Wright, PG/SG, Atlanta: $14,546,800

Wright’s market isn’t likely to go nearly this high; he got the full MLE when he was a free agent four years ago and seems likely to face a similar market this time around at age 30. Offensive limitations, especially as an off-ball 3-point shooter, put a cap on his value for most teams despite another year of sparkling analytics.

Wright didn’t always play major minutes for Atlanta this season but was one of the Hawks’ most effective players, in particular at the defensive end. On a one- or two-year deal at the MLE, he looks like a solid Plan B for teams that whiff on the top-tier guards in free agency, with his ability to moonlight as a shooting guard at 6-5 adding to his value.

19. Tyus Jones, PG, Memphis: $13,791,316

Jones is one of the most fascinating free-agent cases this summer. The Grizzlies have ample cap resources to retain him if they wish, but Jones may be more intrigued by an opportunity to be a full-time starter rather than Ja Morant’s understudy. Certainly, places such as New York or Washington could offer him a starting gig, but those clubs are limited to offering the full MLE. Jones could get more by re-upping with the Griz or by his involvement in a sign-and-trade.

Jones is undersized and hadn’t shot consistently from deep until this season (39.0 percent from 3), but he is an elite game manager at the point, has one of the best floater games in basketball and, at 26, a multi-year deal would likely give his next team the best years of his career.

20. Nicolas Batum, SF, Clippers (player option): $13,734,340

Batum has been one of the league’s most valuable contracts since the Hornets cast him away two years ago, a low-volume, multi-positional glue guy limited only by his profound reluctance to shoot. He’s shot over 40 percent from 3 in back-to-back seasons, however, so the threat of his shot still keeps defenses honest.

With a player option for a paltry $3.3 million, it’s a no-brainer for Batum to opt out of his deal. One likely endgame is that he would re-up with the Clippers, who now have early Bird rights on him, for the maximum they can offer (approximately $12 million in 2022-23), which would put his salary reasonably close to the above valuation.

21. Kevon Looney, C, Golden State: $12,533,705

I did a double-take when I first saw Looney’s projected value. Then the playoffs started.

With proof of concept as one of the league’s best switchable bigs, not to mention as an inhaler of rebounds, Looney has proven he’s worthy of being paid as a third big and sometimes starter. He also answered questions about his recurring health issues by appearing in all 82 regular-season games this season.

Looney still has offensive limitations that will prevent him from getting the big bucks — he’s a non-threat in the post and limited from the perimeter. (Although he would let it rip at UCLA, that hasn’t been part of his pro identity.) With Golden State’s free-flowing cash spigot, the Warriors are likely to lock him up for a couple more years as their sometimes-center.

22. Cody Martin, SG, Charlotte, (restricted): $12,366,850

Birds of a feather with Brown and Anderson above, Martin is another oddball who is unlikely to get paid as much as BORD$ thinks he’s worth because of questions about his offense.

That said, he did a lot to answer those questions in 2021-22, hitting 38.4 percent of his 3s (albeit on low volume) while continuing to be one of the Hornets’ best (only?) defenders. He excels in transition, and while you wouldn’t call him a true 3-and-D guy given the low shot volume, he’s not that far away from getting there.

Charlotte has luxury-tax concerns that could leave it vulnerable to a rival bid for Martin, especially if the Hornets also pay Bridges and guarantee Kelly Oubre’s deal. However, in real life, I don’t see Martin’s price getting above the MLE, and it could end up considerably less if teams don’t believe the shooting numbers from this season.

23. Anfernee Simons, PG, Portland (restricted): $11,467,484

This might be a bit lower than some expect for Simons after his offensive exploits when Damian Lillard was out of the lineup. In 30 games as a starter, Simons averaged 22.0 points per game on 60.0 percent true shooting; given that he will only be 23 this summer, it seems like this elevator is still going up too.

BORD$ balances that production against the fact that Simons is still pretty limited as a distributor, and more importantly, that he has rated his entire career as a destructively bad defensive player. Perhaps that latter issue improves; Simons is young, and at 6-3 with decent athleticism, one would think he can level up to something approaching average.

It seems a foregone conclusion that Portland will re-sign him and the only question is the price, which I’m guessing will come in quite a bit higher than the BORD$ value reflected.

24. Pat Connaughton, SG, Milwaukee (player option): $11,408,836

Connaughton is likely a fairly straightforward case, as he is all but certain to opt out of his final year at $5.7 million and re-sign for something in this price range. The Bucks will have full Bird rights and should be able to keep him if they’re interested (and can stomach the luxury-tax hit for him and Portis), especially since rival bids are unlikely to exceed the non-taxpayer MLE.

25. Collin Sexton, SG, Cleveland (restricted): $10,816,788

Welcome to the most interesting free-agent conversation of the summer. Sexton is a restricted free agent in Cleveland and is young enough (23) to be of great interest to rebuilding teams that have cap room. He also is a proven scorer who averages 20.0 points a game and is shooting 37.8 percent from 3 for his career.

And yet … Sexton’s valuation here barely pops above the midlevel exception because of his other, glaring weaknesses. Offensively, his scoring exploits haven’t translated into outsized team results because of his fairly severe limitations as a passer; also, while he scores at a high rate, the accompanying career true shooting percentage of 55.0 is pretty unremarkable. Defensively, he’s … just not very good. Most advanced analytics register him as among the league’s worst; not quite on par with Simons or Trae Young but not too far away either.

All this makes it seem like Sexton would be an ideal sixth man in a Jamal Crawford/Jordan Clarkson type of role and makes a case for paying him accordingly in the low to mid-teens. But that would be a step back from the current perception of what he is. I’m fascinated to see where this ends up.

(Top photo of James Harden defending Kyrie Irving: Eric Hartline / USA Today)

 

Kind of like what we did with Randle (sigh)

I don't think Orlando would want him back considering they already have Wendall Carter and Isaacs, plus the incoming rookie. A THT trade could work but I disagree with him blossoming there. Too many young mouths to feed in Fultz, Suggs, Wagner, Cole Anthony, Okeke, the bigs listed above... Pipe dream would be Westbrook for Ross and Bamba

 

true, but at least THT technically doesn't play the same position as any of them (anthony, suggs, and fultz are pgs, okeke and wagner are forwards).

maybe a three-cornered deal? i don't know. orlando needs to take as many shots as they can.

 

re: hollinger's piece--i really dislike hollinger and basically think he's a hack and always has been. i can't believe the grizz hired him as an analytics guru when his grasp of such things was that of a novice 12-year old. it's hilarious to me how many stat models rely on the eye-test not only for validation but for tweaking the model itself.

if he's going to tweak it based on outcomes, he should look at how basically every player comes out making more than he will this summer.

 

I think Cole will eventually get traded. THT is a mix of Suggs and Wagner, they could be interested in him. His ceiling is probably bigger or as big as the top ones. Also fits the timeline of their roster

I think Bamba is kind of unplayable in the playoffs so to send our best asset for him is arguable. But he does fit with AD. And he really won't have much space there

 

If Bamba is available for trade I think teams like Raptors, Hornets or Mavs would jump in too

 

i agree, but what are they offering? mavs aren't giving up bullock or dfs. raptors aren't offering anunoby. who's the guy worth more than THT that they're getting back?

now, i could see them trying to get a vet on a short contract plus a pick or something (mavs give them powell and 26, for example).

 

I actually think he's very playable in the playoffs.

Defensively he's long and mobile, we won't lose rim protection if AD has to guard a wing.
Offensively he's a good roll man and can shoot the 3 (38% last year), fits perfectly in 4 out-1 in Ham wants to run.

 

I actually think Raptors would be willing to offer OG with the emergence of Scottie Barnes. OG for Bamba and Cole Anthony?

 

More reading...
Los Angeles Lakers head coach Darvin Ham offered a preview of his stylistic preferences during his introductory press conference on Monday.

Offensively, he wants the Lakers to deploy a four-out, one-in system, emphasizing passing, player movement off the ball and transition offense — the latter of which he mentioned multiples times in various interviews throughout the day.

“We have to get the ball on side to side,” Ham said. “You heard the term play with the pass, share the ball, make it easy on yourself. Instead of going one-on-four, one-on-five, you go play with your teammates, and also three-on-two situations, or two-on-one situations, caused you just moved the ball. You didn’t sit, hold it, dribble 18 times. Like, there has to be a rhythm of all the body movement.”

Ham, a defensive-leaning coach according to those who know him, will lead with that end of the floor. Milwaukee Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer was notably meticulous with his defensive strategy and that quality rubbed off on his protégé.

“Defensively is where you’re gonna see our biggest leaps and bounds,” Ham said. “It starts on the defensive end, and from there, we’re gonna build back to it on offense.”

Ham’s comments offer a blueprint into the types of players the Lakers will pursue to fill out their roster. As a reminder, here are the Lakers currently projected to be on next season’s roster:

• Anthony Davis
• Wenyen Gabriel
• LeBron James
• Stanley Johnson
• Austin Reaves
• Talen Horton-Tucker
• Kendrick Nunn
• Russell Westbrook

The Lakers are light in the interior and on the wing. That could obviously change, as Westbrook, Horton-Tucker and Nunn are trade candidates in an attempt to upgrade the roster this offseason. But assuming the current roster remains, here are the player archetypes — as well as some free-agent targets — the Lakers should pursue with their taxpayer midlevel exception ($6.3 million) and minimum contracts to maximize Ham’s plans.

3-and-D wings
Targets: Otto Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, Nicolas Batum, T.J. Warren, Wesley Matthews, Caleb Martin, Cody Martin, Danuel House, Taurean Prince, Gary Harris, Joe Ingles, Amir Coffey

The Lakers need to add at least a couple of players — ideally, in the 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-9 range — that can defend multiple positions, make 3s at a 35-plus percent clip and help grease the wheels offensively when needed (cut, push the ball in transition, attack closeouts, crash the offensive glass, etc.).

It’s difficult to find players for the taxpayer midlevel exception that check every box. Half of the above players will likely make more than that. But the Lakers need to prioritize this archetype after striking out so badly this season. They can offer a starting frontcourt spot, significant playing time and exposure that most playoff teams can’t match.

Part of the reason for the drop-off in last season’s defense was losing Kentavious-Caldwell Pope, Kyle Kuzma and Alex Caruso — players that fit this skill set, to varying degrees. This is the lifeblood of the new NBA. Look at the teams that made the conference finals: The Golden State Warriors, Boston C Bags, Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks. They each have multiple 3-and-D players and small-ball lineups that are versatile and switchable.

The Lakers just don’t have those types of players. Their current wings can’t shoot and/or are undersized.

James fits the mold, of course, but he’s overqualified, will be 38 years old next season and has to carry a heavy scoring and playmaking load. Davis can slide down and defend wings — as he’s done against the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard and Paul George — but that often takes him away from the paint, where he’s a monster help defender, and it’s physically taxing.

They need help. The Lakers need better wings.

Stretch-5s
Targets: Mo Bamba, Chris Boucher, Bobby Portis, Dewayne Dedmon, Thomas Bryant, Jeff Green, Serge Ibaka, Nemanja Bjelica, Mike Muscala, Gorgui Dieng

With three scorers that live in the paint — James, Davis and Westbrook — one of the easier ways to create driving lanes and maintain spacing is with a stretch-five. A four-out, one-in offense doesn’t have to mean only Davis on the interior. It can also be James, who’s a mismatch nightmare in the post, or Westbrook, who can still expose smaller guards and weaker wings. A stretch big is an easy way to open up the floor.

Aside from Marc Gasol, the Lakers haven’t had a stretch-five in the James-Davis era. They’ve trended toward more athletic, rim-running bigs. The blueprint worked in 2019-20 with JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard but fell flat in 2020-21 with Andre Drummond and 2021-22 with a washed-up DeAndre Jordan and an older Howard. Perhaps it’s time to rethink their approach.

Depending on who they’re able to sign, this type of player could potentially start alongside Davis, allowing the Lakers to keep him at power forward while remaining bigger defensively. But the key, in that case, is finding a player who could protect the rim, too. Not all of the above names can do that — in fact, some are defensive liabilities.

The Lakers have limited spending power, though. Barring Myles Turner or Brook Lopez becoming available via trade, L.A. will likely be adding a fringe starter or third/fourth big.

Mobile/athletic bigs
Targets: Kevon Looney, Nic Claxton, JaVale McGee, Isaiah Hartenstein, Damian Jones, Bismack Biyombo

This is the type of big the Lakers have preferred in the James-Davis era, as they’re traditionally better at finishing in the paint, rebounding and protecting the rim than the stretch-five archetype (there are exceptions, of course).

Assuming Davis starts at center as the primary “in” player in Ham’s offense, their backup center may be the only traditional center on the roster. The Lakers can still make these types of players work within Ham’s system, but they’ll need younger, more athletic and more effective options than Jordan and Howard.

At a minimum, they need one athletic, defensive-minded backup center as Davis insurance.

Defensive-minded guards
Targets: Gary Payton II, Victor Oladipo, Ricky Rubio, Delon Wright, Jevon Carter, Austin Rivers

The Lakers’ backcourt heavily trends toward scoring. Westbrook, Nunn and Horton-Tucker are shoot-first ballhandlers and playmakers. Reaves is the only plus-defender, and even then, with his current frame, there are certain matchups he can’t hold up in.

Los Angeles needs better backcourt defense. It’s more of a secondary need than a primary need, as Reaves and Johnson — and possibly Nunn or Horton-Tucker — can use their length against smaller and quicker ballhandlers. But there will come a time when the Lakers need a specialist who can lock in for at least 15 to 20 minutes a night against a star ballhandler or a spark-plug scorer.

As Ham said in his introduction, good defense generates good offense and vice versa. If the Lakers can add a player or two who can pressure the ball, play passing lanes and generally wreak havoc, they’ll have a shot to recreate the fast-breaking identity that made them so imposing during their championship season.

(Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA TODAY Sports)

 

ok. i don't see that; feel like anunoby's value is higher than that. but yeah, if they did offer that, we lose.

 

Great stuff

I have him as unable to defend guards. At least hold his own. He looks very raw and while able to move, doesn't seem to have much lateral speed and defensive skills on that end. That's why he lost so much space to WCJ. But I haven't seen many games of him except against us or Philly because when he goes against Embiid it's always a fun matchup. There's a joke that Embiid is his father. And we can't be too picky considering the number of options available.

 

still on my dedmon/dieng vet min train. get both and hope at least one is healthy at all times.

mini-mle to one of porter/warren/batum/prince (i'd put gpII in this group, but don't see him signing for that).

we really need someone from these two categories of player, imo (stretch big who defends reasonably and big wing). if we can't do it via FA, then we'll have to do it via trade.