Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Boom. First domino falls.

Haha...Raiders re-sign Irving, in accordance with my plans.

 

Pretty cool mock draft thing, complete with trades and grades.



CB isn't a top need, but Surtain is a beast. A little surprised he was there.

 

OUT
Valoaga DE
Eligwe LB
Killings DB

 

OFFENSE

Start: 112.3m

QB 34.8m
Carr 22.1
Mariota 10.7
Peterman 1.0
Sloter 0.9

Step 1: Move Mariota, angling for a fourth rounder. Not sure if that's possible at this point, but that's the goal. If not, I let him walk.

Step 2: Draft a QB later in the draft, ideally one who's a backup quality type player. I'm eyeing Ian Book in the 6th round or so.
Step 3: I'd also cut Peterman, but Gruden probably won't.

QB: 25.0m
Change: -9.8m
Offense: 102.5m

Depth Chart
Carr, Peterman, Book

WIth Carr, the Raiders have a team that should win games - like 10 a season. He's not the problem. In Book, the Raiders would have a mobile QB who's smart and seasoned playing at the highest level in the NCAA. In Bowl Games and games against top-ranked teams, including LSU, Clemson three times, Georgia, and Bama, he averaged 258 yards and a TD, and the Irish went 3-4. In his final two seasons, he threw for 49 TDs and 9 INTs, racking up 5864 yards through the air and another 1031 on the ground - with another 13 TDs, too. The Irish can save money and have a competent backup project with these moves.

 

One of the biggest mystery of life...along with Bigfoot and UFO's.

 

Leavitt is back.
Joyner is out - I think.

 

RB 6.8m
Richard 3.5
Jacobs 3.3

FAs
Devontae Booker - good runner, decent receiver
Theo Riddick - limited to receiving

Step 1: Offer Booker 1.2m.
Step 2: Draft a RB later in the draft, day 3. Looking at Rakeem Boyd or Javian Hawkins, who are mocked around 3rd to 5th rounds.
There's a scenario in which the Raiders release Richard. He's making more than Jacobs, and his skill set is not THAT valuable.

Depth Chart
Jacobs/Booker
Richard/Boyd

Change: +2.1m
RB: 8.9m
Offense: 104.6m

 

Worth posting that OL plan...

OG 17.5m
Jackson 9.6m
Incognito 5.5m
Simpson 1.0m
Cotton 0.8m
Seymour 0.7m
-Raiders cut Jackson and Incognito.

Step 1: Honestly, offer Incognito $3m to see if he'll return.
Step 2: Draft one of the Notre Dame OGs - Hainsey if he's there after 80. The Irish are a factory of offensive linemen in the pros.

Change: -9.0m
OG: 6.5m
Offense: 106m

Depth Chart
Simpson/Hainsey
Incognito/Cotton

OT 21.5m
Brown 14.0
Miller 4.3m
Parker 2.4m
Jones-Smith 0.8m

FA
Denzelle Good OT

Step 1: Re-sign Good. The market is flooded with OL, so you should be able to bring him back for two years and 5-6m.
Step 2: Shop Brown. I'd move him for a 2nd rounder, for certain. I may move him for a third or fourth.
Step 2a: If Brown finds a trade home, offer Daryl Williams 3 years, 24m.

Change: +3.0m
OT: 17.0m
Offense: 109m

Depth Chart
Williams/Good
Miller/Parker

I overestimated Brown's value.

Notre Dame does a great job developing players at two positions: OL and TE. They have three quality OL in the draft this season. I wouldn't be surprised if Mayock goes for one or two of them to fill out the lineup. Eichenberg can start at either Tackle spot, and Hainsey could develop into a starter, too.

 

WR 8.3m
Ruggs 3.8
Edwards 1.1
Renfrow 0.9
Ateman 0.9
Quinn 0.9
Doss 0.8

FAs
Tyrell Williams - released
Zay Jones - allow to walk
Nelson Agholor

Step 1: Offer Agholor 3 years, 24m.
Step 1b: If Agholor goes elsewhere, offer Phillip Dorsett at one-year deal at 1.2m.
Step 3: Draft WR early day 3. Tamorrion Terry or Amon-Ra St. Brown. WRs with size and speed who can play X or Z. The Raiders are good in the slot.

Change: +8.6m
WR: 17.5m
Offense: 113.2m

Depth Chart
X: Edwards/Terry
Z: Agholor/Doss
Slot: Ruggs/Renfrow

 

Last Year's Draft

Ruggs
Draft Pos: 12
AV Rank: 46
Pos Order: 1
Positional Rank: 10

Arnette
Draft Pos: 19
AV Rank: 65
Pos Order: 4
Positional Rank: 7

Bowden
Draft Pos: 80
AV Rank: 84
Pos Order: 14
Positional Rank: 16

Edwards
Draft Pos: 81
AV Rank: 84
Pos Order: 15
Positional Rank: 16

Simpson
Draft Pos: 109
AV Rank: 128
Pos Order: 4
Positional Rank: 8

Robertson
Draft Pos: 139
AV Rank: 190
Pos Order: 16
Positional Rank: 23

Muse
Draft Pos: 100
AV Rank: 190
Pos Order: 9 (safety)
Positional Rank: 31

Every single player underperformed relative to overall draft position and relative rank within position. Edwards and Bowden the two best overall picks, and Bowden is gone. But this is just after 1 year.

 

I have been crunching a lot of numbers. I ran the PFF draft simulator. Here's the strategy: get as many potential starters at positions of need as possible. PFF gave Moehring an A-, no grade lower than a B for this draft:

1.17 Trevon Moehring, S, TCU
-he's a starting free safety. Pencil him in as a starter.
S: Moehring, Abram, Heath - and we're set there.

2.48 Liam Eichenberg, T, ND
-Irish crank out good linemen. Eichenberg can play LT.
T: Eichenberg/Good, Miller - and we're set there.

3.80 Jay Tufele, DI, USC
-he can play the 1 or 3 technique. I'd put him in at the 1 if Hankins is gone, 3 if Hankins is back.
DI: Hankins?, Tufele, Hurst, Irving - and we're set.

4. 121 Robert Hainsey, T, ND
-He projects to an OT or an OG, and I think he could slot in and play rotational snaps as a rookie.
OT: Eichenberg/Good, Miller
OG: Incognito?/Hainsey, Cotton/Simpson - we're set

5.163 Daelin Hayes, ED, ND
Hayes is an OLB in the 4-3, and he can play passing downs to start and eventually perhaps develop into a starter.
LB: Kwiatkoski, Littleton, Morrow/Muse/Hayes - we're set

7.246 Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Iowa
-Profiles as a Z receiver who could be a starter. He's also versatile, posting 1615 receiving yards, 274 rushing, and 1520 on kickoff returns (20 total TDs).
WR: Ruggs, Agholor, Edwards, Renfrow, Smith-Marsette - we're set

 

Kwiatkoski and Littleton restructure, freeing up 7.1m in cap space. I'm growing a bit concerned about what they might do with this money.

 

Here's a look at the 2019 draft.

Ferrell
Draft Order: 1.4
Draft Rank: 38
Position Order: 2
Position Rank: 4
-Not a good look right now, but I'm happy with Cle's trajectory.
Pick Value: -34

Jacobs
Draft Order: 1.24
Draft Rank: 9
Position Order: 1
Position Rank: 1
-That's great value.
Pick Value: +15
Draft Value: -19

Abram
Draft Order: 1.27
Draft Rank: 86
Position Order: 2
Position Rank: 6
-Injuries and question marks.
Pick Value: -61
Draft Value: -80

Mullen
Draft Order: 2.45
Draft Rank: 48
Position Order: 5
Position Rank: 2
-Good player with a bright future.
Pick Value -3
Draft Value: -83

Crosby
Draft Order: 4.106
Draft Rank: 27
Position Order: 10
Position Rank: 2
-The kind of quality player a team needs to salvage a draft.
Pick Value: +79
Draft Value: -4

Johnson
Draft Order: 4.129
Draft Rank: 170
Position Order: 15
Position Rank: 22
-Promising player, needs some time.
Pick Value: -41
Draft Value: -45

Moreau
Draft Order: 4.137
Draft Rank: 149
Position Order: 10
Position Rank: 6
-Good player. Suffered because of Witten.
Pick Value: -8
Draft Value: -53

Renfrow
Draft Order: 5.149
Draft Rank: 45
Position Order: 17
Position Rank: 9
-Great selection.
Pick Value: +104
Draft Value: +51

Bell
Draft Order: 7.230
Draft Rank: 193
Position Order: 21
Position Rank: 17
-Typical late round pick.
Pick Value: +37
Draft Value: +88

Let's call it two home runs for draft position in Renfrow and Crosby. But it's really about what happens with those top four players over the next season or so. Right now, the team had three first rounders and four in the top 50, but in terms of performance, they have five top 50 members of the draft class. They also have three top 2 players drafted at their position.

 

Lots of LV sites asking...

Dream offensive FA?
Dream defensive FA?

 

Raiders obviously following my posts. They had a virtual meeting with Smith-Marsette. He’s a guy I think can become a starter, but he might be available in round 7.

 

OL Kyle Long
Long to LV is a feel good story, but is it a sound move? He played three outstanding years in Chicago. Since then, he has appeared in 30 of the 80 regular season games, missing all of 2020 to rehab. He was inadequate in 2019, too. It's hard to know what sort of player he is at this point, but betting on him as a quality starter seems a bad bet.

WR AJ Green
He's three years removed from being a Pro Bowler. He's entering his age 33 season. Last season, he caught 47 passes for 523 yards and 2 TDs, but he was targeted 104 times, three of which were INTs. The Bengals were a mess, but the team's other 477 targets went for 3250 yards, 17 TDs, and 8 INTs. Maybe the Raiders are looking at him as an Agholor type bounce back player. I will say that his body control and ability to catch in traffic look good.

OL Sam Young
Young has been an adequate backup with borderline starter talent. He had arguably his best season in 2020, but he's not a player I'd bank on as a starter. Could be a weakest link on a strong line.

 

Not Coming
Chargers locked up Michael Davis, a guy I wanted the Raiders to snag.

Going
Maliek Collins signs a one year, $6m contract elsewhere

 

IN
ED Yannick Ngakoue
Ngakoue wasn't high on my list of FAs for two reasons. First, we didn't have the cap space to sign him initially. Second, I'm a Moneyball sorta guy - I like lower cost, high value guys. That said, he had the fourth highest cumulative grade of any DEs I looked at. His Pressure Rate in recent years is similar to Crosby's, but he's a much higher graded player than Maxx. He's arguably the best DE on the team, and he gives the Raiders options - Maxx and Ngakoue rushing, with Ferrell sliding inside a bit. Honestly, Ngakoue and David Irving give the Raiders incredible athleticism along the D-front. Two years 26m. That's considerably less than I was reading - I was seeing 17m per season. So, nice.

OUT
Nelson Agholor
-Not too surprised, but the money the Pats threw at him blows my mind.

 

OUT
C - Hudson

Yikes.

First, I actually love the idea of dropping a ton of money and going money ball.
Second, I have no confidence the Raiders can do that.

A little bummed out right now.

 

Beginning to think Del Rio was a better manager than Gruden who is now coming up as all bluster and none... Losing very good to excellent players left to right.

I have no confidence the Raiders can do a better season in 2021.