2015 Nba Draft Discussion: Russell, Nance Jr., Brown

As the draft draws closer & reality sets in more & more that Butler or Middleton aren't realistic options, I find myself looking to the draft for solutions.

It seems like most believe Min will take Towns, leaving us Okafor who we seem to prefer. Kobe, Clarkson, & Randle seem like safe bets to start or atleast see heavy minutes. A few things stand out about that group:

1.) They're very young, which I'm fine with for a few reasons - we know Clarkson is a mature hard worker with grown man game. Okafor & Randle are likely to split time with backups their Rookie seasons. Kobe is likely to have his minutes limited & sit some games to avoid a serious injury.

2.) Extremely poor 3 point shooting (& overall shooting). Love Clarkson but he was #55 among PG's in 3P% last season. Never been a strength of Kobe's. Randles struggles with his jumper in general. Okafor has no jumper to speak of. Obviously the young guys could develop in this area, but on paper, it's ugly. There's the obvious spacing argument but there are other ways to create spacing. My main concern is that the 3 ball has became a cornerstone of good offenses. Some teams can overcome this with Superstars, good coaching, & good defense, which brings me to my next point.

3.) No D. I don't want to call Clarkson a below average defender, but he definitely impressed more on the offensive side. Kobe hasn't played D in a long time. Randle hasn't ever been known for his defense to my knowledge. Okafor was a below average defender in college & that's expected to translate to the league. As with anything the young guys should get better over time, but year 1 is looking ugly.

4.) We have no starting SF. Young could be a very good 6th man behind a solid starting lineup, but I think it's clear we don't want him starting.

So the needs are obvious. Having Black definitely helps, but we still need another big that can split minutes with 1 of our bigs & play great defense. More than anything we need a starting SF that plays great defense & can hit the 3. We need to fill out the bench with a mixture of players that can atleast do 1 or the other, hit the 3 or play D.

Starting with C because that's the easiest in our situation this year imo. I'm still hoping Min takes Okafor & we get Towns. He has the defense, he has the jumper. He has the potential to overcome a lot of our weaknesses on his own. Outside of that, in the draft the guy with the most defensive potential by far is Upshaw, & it's very possible he's there when we pick at 27. In FA, my man crush on Biyombo is well documented. He's 1 of the top rim protectors in the league, 1 of the top rebounders in the league, a very good all around defender that has the quickness to guard the pick & roll. The only projections I've seen for his contract have him not getting multi-year offers for more than his QO around 6M. At only 22 I consider him an extra lottery pick.


SF is a bit more difficult in my eyes. We need a high impact starter so a FA would be ideal. It looks like Butler & Middleton are going to be impossible to sign, Harris might be a possibility & he's a borderline good fit. He's not the greatest defender or 3 point shooter, but he's atleast average at both. After that, the dropoff is dramatic, but the dropoff in expected price isn't. When Butler & Middleton are starting at 15.8M, it's insane to give role players like Carroll & Danny Green deals starting at up to 12-14M. I know the cap is going up, but we can sign an actual tier 1 or tier 2 player at another position or sign multiple role players to role player contracts for that kind of $. It's tough to ignore such a glaring need at SF, but we'd be better off going with a cheaper option with similar production through FA & trying to find a way to move up in the draft for 1 of the top SF prospects.

Some of the better FA wings that shouldn't get overpaid:

Afflalo - 3 & D. Can play both wing spots. Getting a bit older, probably opting out for long term security more than a pay raise. Multi year deal worth 4-7M per gets him.

Gerald Green - 3 & D. Can play both wing spots. I guess there was some truth to what Dragic said. Green is also unhappy with management in Phx. His overall stock is down. If he signed a multi-year contract now I think it'd start in the 4-6M range. Good candidate to sign a 1 year deal with player option to prove his worth.

Mike Dunleavy - 3 with no D. Can play both wing spots & even PG in a pinch. 1 of the best shooters in the league. Not athletic enough/too old to call him a good defender, but he makes savvy veteran plays on both sides of the ball. Good candidate to help mentor the young guys. Won't get more than 3-4M

K.J. McDaniels - D but no 3 yet. Can play both wing spots. Outstanding defender. Looked like an All-Rookie team player in Philly, shot terribly but that goes for almost the entire Philly team. Didn't get playing time after being traded to Houston. Only 22, lots of time to develop his shot. Judging by his tenure there, I can't see Houston matching any offers. The main threat will be other teams. Could probably sign him for BAE money, 2M or less.

Finding a SF that can defend & hit the 3 in the draft is going to require some creativity. There are quite a few 3&D prospects, but unless Mitch finds another steal late, we're going to have to move up to draft them. You all know the names. Winslow, Johnson, Hezonja, Oubre, Anderson, Hollis-Jefferson(might be the best defender in the class but has a MKG-esque shot). Moving up is difficult enough, but if we won't give up #27 because we're taking Upshaw there, it becomes even more difficult. I'm sure some teams would ask for Black next, & I hope we manage to avoid that. So our trade assets = #34, Kelly, Young, Brown, Blue, Sacre, S&T Lin, Hill, anyone else we have bird rights on outside of the core, future 2nd's, cap space, & of course creativity.

Without acquiring more assets to trade or taking on salary, I think we can only get up to the low-mid 20's, giving us a shot at Anderson(or RHJ but I doubt we go for him).I think our best chance is a playoff team/contender looking for wing depth taking Young over a rookie that might not might not contribute for a while. Some teams that might make sense, starting with the highest pick:

Houston #18 - Why? A number of things need to go our way for this to be possible. Corey Brewer has to opt out & sign elsewhere. They need to not have a wing they really want with the MLE & prefer a veteran to the wings they could get at #18, which makes sense for a team trying to contend right now. They'd have to want Nick Young, & it wouldn't hurt if they liked the idea of getting their #34 back to pick up 2 non-guaranteed contracts right at the top of round 2. They have to send salary back so if we want McDaniels that helps get a deal done, since they're likely to let him go anyways. The deal looks like: Sign & Trade McDaniels, #18, maybe a filler contract for Young, #34. Of course if they wanted Brown or another cheap contract we throw them in no problem.

Dallas #21 - Why? Parsons' knee surgery is still being kept quiet. A few weeks ago he wouldn't tell the media if he had microfracture because the team didn't want him to, now a report yesterday claims he's on pace to be back for the start of the season, still no mention of what type of surgery he had. Aminu is a FA, along with most of their roster. They're rumored to be after Jordan in a S&T for Chandler, & I think they have a good shot at landing him. They have the leverage of being able to sign him outright if they have to, & pairing CP3 back up with Tyson is much better than losing DJ for nothing. I think there's a good chance they lose Monta because they'll be prioritizing finding a starting PG to replace Rondo & feed DJ. That will leave them looking for affordable wings that can step in & save it from being a wasted season if Parsons has issues with the knee. I don't think they'd gamble on a rookie in that role. There aren't many guys that can give you Young's production at his price, I think he makes a lot of sense for the Mavs in this scenario. & with Rondo, Monta, & possibly Barea gone, taking a couple cheap young guards like Brown & Blue as throw ins makes sense too. The trade: Young, Brown, Blue, #34 for #21. If they're planning on going over the cap we'd take a few contracts back to make salaries match, but I think they'd prefer not to send any more bodies out, which is ideal for us.

Chicago #22 - Why? With Thibs gone, I assume so are the 7 man rotations. They're probably looking to add some quality depth since they're really thin outside of their bigs. If Dunleavy leaves they'll get even thinner on the wing. They already have some youth there with McBuckets, Snell, & Mirotic. They're more likely to have interest in an affordable veteran here. The trade: #34, Young for #22 + contracts to make salaries match.

Cavs #24 - Why? Yet another team with no wing depth. Lebron & JR is really all they have, & JR might leave for a big contract elsewhere. Marion has been non existent this season. As they showed by dealing Wiggins for Love, GM Lebron has no interest in waiting on a rookie to contribute. Young gives them another 6th man scorer to play next to JR or takes his place if JR gets overpaid. The trade: #34, Young for #24, filler contracts to make salaries match.

I'd be happy with Anderson, I think he's going to be a good 3&D SF in this league, but if Mitch & co. have their eyes set on a prospect higher up like Johnson or Oubre, here's a few ways we could pull that off:

Acquire additional assets for removing protection from picks. I think these are moves we should try no matter what because I believe we're heading back to the playoffs. We could remove top 3 protection from our 1st to Philly, since it's highly unlikely we could keep a top 3 pick. That pick was the main piece they got in the deal for MCW, they don't want to risk losing it 2 years in a row. With #35, 37, 47, 58, 60 they have could send us multiple 2nd rounders & young players to package with the 34 & move up. I'd like to try to steal Wroten from them for us to keep.

Remove the top 5 protection from the pick we sent to Orlando. Tough to see what Orlando would give up here with only a low 2nd rounder, it would have to be young players we could use to move up. Unrelated to moving up, this could also be a way to guarantee ourselves Tobias Harris in a Sign & Trade without bidding against the open market. Or we could use it to help another team land Harris in a S&T if they send us the pieces we need to move up.

There's always the option of taking on salary. I'm not a fan of this route, but if it gets us a starting SF in the draft, it's really no different than spending in FA. Some options:

Minnesota - Surely they're looking at options to dump Pek. Pek isn't completely useless for us as he could serve as a veteran backup for our young bigs, but I would hope we find a way to flip him as I hate taking ourselves out of the hunt for Biyombo, but it's not the end of the world. With #31, 36, & young talent like Lavine, Shabazz, they could provide the pieces we need to move up & grab Johnson or Oubre + keep pieces for ourselves. That #31 has real value as the first non-guaranteed pick, someone risky with a ton of potential will go there.

Denver - This relies on there being truth to them hiring D'antoni & him pushing for a trade for Lin, & also Lawson/Faried forcing their way out. We'd have to take on a ton of salary, but hopefully we could flip Faried. Also try to offset some of the cap hit by packaging players D'antoni seemed to favor. Young, Kelly, & Sacre had the best season of their careers under Mike. The deal: #7, Lawson, Faried for S&T Lin, Young, Kelly, Sacre, #34.

Charlotte - We know they want to dump Lance, but how much? If they lose Gerald Henderson they could need a cheap wing like Young. The deal: Lance, #9, S&T Biyombo for Young, #34.

Boston - Only happens if Ainge has 2 big FA signings he wants to make & needs to the cap room. Doubtful that Johnson or Oubre are there at 16, but if they are, pull the trigger. Wallace is probably the worst contract remaining in the league, so we should be able to force them to pay a lot. Wallace, #16, #33, atleast 1 of their young guards for Young or another cheap contract they want. Fills multiple needs for us, & I'd try hard to package 33 + 34 to dump Wallace.

My favorite scenario of these would be Towns falling to 2. Removing the protection from our 1st to Philly in exchange for 2 of their 2nd rounders & Wroten. Pulling off the Dallas trade (since they likely won't want to send out salary). Landing Anderson at 21. Upshaw at 27. I trust Mitch to nail 1 of the 2 picks from Philly, especially with all of the later prospects he's had a look at. In FA, it's close between Afflalo & Gerald Green, but I go with Afflalo because he's had a much more consistent career. Add Biyombo at PF/C. Leaves us with 13-15M. I'd sign Monta with a starting salary of 7-8M, won't help with our spacing or defense but I think our other moves did enough to address that, 18/4 for that price beats paying a role player SF nearly double that. Use the remaining 5M to offer a 1 year deal + team option to Wes Matthews. Then use the BAE or Room Exception on McDaniels.

Clarkson/Ellis/2nd rounder
Kobe/Wroten/Matthews
Afflalo/Anderson/McDaniels
Randle/Black/Kelly
Towns/Biyombo/Upshaw

I don't see any way possible we put together a team better than that.




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**Waiting for Mudiay updates**

 

Marc J. Spears ‏@SpearsNBAYahoo 26m26 minutes ago
Rising lottery pick Cameron Payne, a Murray State PG, has upcoming workouts scheduled with Lakers (2nd pick) & Knicks (4th), a source says.

 

Question: Is this guy better than Cameron Payne?

 

Damn I wanted one of the bigs.

In related news, the Lakers thought enough of Mudiay to whine and dine with him. An excerpt from the article below that is hilarious about same situation with Magic and J.K. Cooke.


http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/...nuel-mudiay-dinner-with-lakers-before-workout


Earlier Friday morning, Shams Charania of Real GM reported that point guard Emmanuel Mudiay would work out for the Lakers on Saturday morning in Los Angeles. Before Mudiay runs hrough drills that will help determine whether or not the team decides he is worthy of the second overall pick in the 2015 NBA draft, Mitch Kupchak and the Lakers basketball operations department decided to take Mudiay out for dinner on Friday night.

Mudiay is projected lower than the second overall pick in most mock drafts, and it has been widely reported the Lakers either Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor when the draft rolls around on June 25th, but the front office has been doing its due diligence on up to eight players it will consider for the selection.

The Lakers taking Mudiay out to dinner before a workout is reminiscent of another memorable dinner with a potential franchise point guard before the draft, as told here in an excerpt of Jeff Pearlman's book "Showtime: Magic, Kareem, Riley and the Los Angeles Lakers Dynasty of the 1980s":

Moments later, the plates arrived. The first thing [Magic] Johnson noticed was the awful smell. He looked down and saw something bland and crusty.

Cooke observed Johnson's bewildered expression.
"They're sand dabs!" he said. "Sand dabs!"
Johnson glanced at his father, leaned close and whispered, "I don't know what a sand dab is."
Cooke was nonplussed. "Young man, do you know how much a sand dab costs?"
Johnson shook his head.
"Well, they're very expensive," Cooke said. "It's a very fine fish. Now eat."
 Johnson stabbed the listless sand dab with his fork. Nudged it around a bit. Pushed it left. Pushed it right. "I can't eat this," he said.
Cooke, a man who knew a high-quality sand dab when he saw it, was outraged. "What are you talking about?" he said. "Do you know how much that fish costs?"

"If it's OK with you, Mr. Cooke, I think I'd rather have a hamburger and some French fries," Johnson said softly. "Would that be OK?"

This was not the way to make a good impression. Cooke was a formal man with formal tastes. If he wanted sand dabs, dammit, everyone was eating sand dabs. In this particular case, however, Hearn -- one of the few men who had the owner's ear -- intervened. "The guy's only nineteen," he said. "The only thing he knows is hamburger and pizza." A resigned Cooke sighed, then yelled toward the kitchen, "Can we have a hamburger?Nothing.
"A hamburger!" he screamed. "Get the man one!"

Within minutes, Earvin Johnson was gripping a burger. The accompanying smile was that of an eight-year-old securing a Happy Meal. "You know," West later said to Johnson, "nobody has ever done what you just did to Jack Kent Cooke."

Posted earlier:

 

He's a lock at 11. So either Mitch is considering getting another pick or considering trading down or doing due diligence on both fronts or trying to f*** with other GMs.

 

That's not surprising.

 

That's a whole lot of muscle to pack on in this short of time.

 

Damn. I wish i had drugs/roids like that when i was a kid

 

^^^

 

Watching Mudiay's workout on Periscope, the mechanics on his J look infinitely better. He missed more than he made, but the motion is a lot better than what we saw in his China footage.

 

I was curious to see who else his agent repped to see if it was a mutually beneficial arrangement (I'll do this for player x, so you can be sure player y ends up here) -- doesn't seem to be the case. He has Amare, Shawne Williams (former Laker), and Chris Walker (brought in for workout this week)

http://www.draftexpress.com/agents/Travis-King-328/