Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Deep Dive on Lynn Bowden

Pros:
Bowden is versatile, elusive, and tough. He shows good vision for a Receiver, has quick feet and a thick build. He's a team player who is effective in the open field and as a returner.

Cons:
Limited reps a WR mean his route tree is limited and his routes are often unconvincingly nuanced. Needs room to operate and benefits from schemes rather than play experience in the slot. Struggles with drops, ball security as a runner, and has had problems with press coverage.

Comparisons:
Randall Cobb (9 yrs, 120 G, 79 starts, 525-6352-44, 68 AV, 1 PB; 9500 APY, 3 return TDs)
Denard Robinson (4 yrs, 55 G, 13 starts, 1368 scrimmage yards, 5 TDs; 1523 APY; 8 AV)
Taysom Hill (3 yrs, 37 G, 9 starts, 590 scrimmage yards, 9 TDs; 6 AV)
-This is a massive range. All of them played significant time and saw starts, but Hill and Robinson combined for only one impact season.

Ceiling:
Most see him as developing into a starting slot receiver who contributes in a variety of facets of the game.

Floor:
Gadget player who works into the rotation rather than starts. Special teams contributor.

Projected Round:
Wide ranges here, but most common was round 2-3, but some saw him as a day three selection.

My Take: Some see Bowden as an exceptional value, even among those who projected him later in the draft. His initial value will be as a Joker, as Gruden calls it. Gruden has coached players who could do many things - Desmond Howard, Karl Williams, Earnest Graham, and Jalen Richard. But if we're being honest, none of them has Bowden's versatility. He will contribute on special teams and a handful of plays per game early on, but if he catches onto things as a RB, he will spell Jacobs to increase both their durabilities, and he'll eventually be able to stay on the field more as a slot receiver, a RB, a wildcat QB, and a returner. He has home run ability and field stretching capabilities the Raiders need.

 

On NFL Total Access...the debate was which receiver landed in the perfect spot. Former Raider CB D'Angelo Hall picked Henry Ruggs III as THE receiver that went into the perfect system. Hall even said Oakland... Former Raider WR James Jones (Derek Carr's brother) said it was Lamb ending with Dallas.

About Bowden...it was mentioned that he compares to Antwaan Randle El who was a multi faceted player with the Steelers. Bowden has more accolades at least college wise. It would be cool to see him throw a TD off an option play.

I like the Arnette - Slay comparison. If the former can approach that type of the latter's level, he would make the doubters eat their words. Arnette will get a load of action given how Mullen has played.

 

Ruggs's value to this team could be way bigger than his overall stats. I do think he'll score TDs, but I also think things are going to be that much easier in the run game and underneath for other guys. Bowden really excites me, as I think his contributions to the team are going to be much bigger than his stats, too. They're both good picks.

Arnette is definitely underrated by a lot of people. Let them pan the pick. I can't wait to see all our young guys on the field in the defensive backfield. I think we're way deeper than last year.

 

Deep Dive on Bryan Edwards

Pros:
Edwards is a big, physical receiver who uses his strength to make amazing catches and do work afte the catch. He runs diverse routes from a variety of positions, has good concentration and tracking skills, and finds the open spots in the defense. He has good hands, doesn't drop many passes, and has good special teams chops.

Cons:
Edwards lets the ball get in on him, which is a serious problem given his lack of suddenness. Since he struggles to create separation unless he wins by physicality, he will face many contested passes in the NFL. His routes are diverse by not crisp. He must work on hands technique and avoid injuries to reach his potential.


Comparisons:
Mohamed Sanu (8 yrs, 118 G, 92 starts, 403-4507-26, 45 AV)
David Terrell (5 yrs, 54 G, 29 starts, 128-1602-9, 12 AV)
Corey Davis (3 yrs, 42 G, 36 starts, 142-1867-6, 15 AV)
JJ Arcega-Whiteside (16 G, 5 starts, 10-169-1, 1 AV as a rookie)
Marcell Ateman (2 yrs, 18 G, 6 starts, 20-270-1, 2 AV)
David Sills DNP
-There's a wide range here, but almost all of them have started and even become official starters for a season. There are no WR1s in this bunch - at least not yet. But there are four solid contributors and another rotational WR.

Ceiling:
Edwards profiles as a possession receiver who works as a WR2 outside or as a big slot, with scheme versatility.

Floor:
Edwards should contribute on special teams and as a rotation WR immediately, and he should be a WR3 or 4 within his first two seasons. It's a decent floor.

Projected Round:
Mostly round two, with as late as round 4.

My Take:
Edwards needs to be worked into invovlement early in his career, and he may be a slow developer. But within two years, there is no reason to think that he would be outside, looking in. He could take over the big role from Tyrell Williams, and he could spell Renfrow in the slot. Look for him to be invovled on special teams, in the red zone, and in limited reps as a rookie. But there's an intriguing upside here, as there is with all receivers with his combination of size and speed. But his hands are special. He is another red zone weapon the Raiders lacked last season.

 

Your take on Ruggs was what I read elsewhere too. I believe Hall said the same thing. They can't stack the box anymore.

Ditto on Arnette...

 

Two draft picks named top 20 dynasty rookies...(not my writeups)

Top 20 Dynasty Rookies
#17 Bryan Edwards - WR
He’ll have the chance to compete with Tyrell Williams for the No. 2 wideout job in the Raiders’ pass-happy offense. They just need a good QB to operate it.

#5 Henry Ruggs, WR,
As much as speedsters like Ruggs have a tendency to bust, he will have ample opportunity in Las Vegas’ offense. He’ll probably be the No. 1 wideout on Day 1.

My Take
As much as I like seeing the love, the hate is hilarious. A good QB?
Raiders were 9th in passing yards, 5th in INTs, and 19th in TDs. With no WR1. Those were all up from 18th, 8th, and 24th the previous season, his first under new head coach. Carr is the QB, he's top 10, and the nonsense needs to stop.

 

The Carr stuff bothers me. Here are some stats...Gruden's best QB vs. Carr w/ Gruden vs. Carr w/out Gruden.

Most Wins
12 Gannon
12 Carr w/out Gruden
7 - Carr w/ Gruden

COMP% (100+ attempts)
70.4% Carr w/ Gruden
65.8% Gannon
63.8% Carr w/out Gruden

TDs
32 Carr w/out Gruden
28 Gannon
21 Carr w/ Gruden

Yards
4054 Carr w/ Gruden
3987 Carr w/out Gruden
3840 Gannon

Rating
100.8 Carr w/ Gruden
96.7 Carr w/out Gruden
95.5 Gannon

4QC
7 Carr w/out Gruden
3 Gannon
3 Carr w/ Gruden

GWD
7 Carr w/out Gruden
4 Gannon
3 Carr w/ Gruden

 

Deep Dive on Tanner Muse

Pros:
Muse is skilled at diagnosis plays, sniffing out misdirection, and plays with a high level of physicality. He has tons of experience inside and out, as a deep safety, covering the slot, RBs, and TEs. He's physical, with high energy and great straight line speed. Regarded as a leader who hits hard, tracks the ball well, and tackles well in the open field.

Cons:
Muse's very poor agility will likely force him to play linebacker, where he will have to overcome struggles against the physicality of that spot. He will struggle to cover twitchy players, and is best suited to RBs and TEs because of a lack of range. Likes to hit rather than tackle at times, and he looks awkward on the field.

Comparisons:
Mark Barron (8 yrs, 119 G, 102 starts, 44 AV)
Taylor Mays (6 yrs, 80 G, 15 starts, 10 AV)
Su'a Cravens (2 yrs, 16 G, 3 starts, 3 AV)
-Two long-term NFL palyers, one a strong starter, one who struggled to stay on rosters. It he could split the difference and post a career like Mays, that would not be a bad NFL career by any measure.

Ceiling:
Hybrid who could backup a few spots who could develop into a WILL starter in 2-3 seasons.

Floor:
Excellent special teams player who contributes in all facets.

Projected Round:
6th round

My Take:
Every team needs special teamers, and getting one on a rookie deal sounds tantalizing, but Muse was selected in the third round. He must develop his skills quickly to play rotational snaps as a rookie or start within years two or three to make this a decent pick. I'm rooting for the guy. His size/speed combination is alluring, especially in TE coverage. He has looked amazing on tape, but he looked horrendous against LSU.

 

Deep Dive on John Simpson

Pros:
Simpson has great size, strong hands, and plays nasty. He transitions to the second level well, with awareness of where his assignment is. His excellent size and athleticism make him tough to bull rush, and he's best at initial contact and when he can create full extension.

Cons:
Simpson's hips are stiff, and he plays upright and unablanced frequently. He's late off the snap, plays with poor quickness, and his feet slow down greatly throughout a play. Agility and penalties could be a problem, and he has struggled against stunts and wide rushes.

Comparisons:
Kelechi Osemele (8 yrs, 96 G, 96 starts, 2 PB, 1 AP, 49 AV)
Gabe Jackson (6 yrs, 84 G, 83 starts, 35 AV)
Brandon Brooks (8 yrs, 112 G, 106 starts, 3 PB, 51 AV)
-This is an impressive group. All are routine starters with massive value who piled up Pro Bowls.

Ceiling:
Huge range here. Potential Pro Bowler, dominant player, to someone who starts within his first two seasons to marginal starter, someone who needs a scheme (gap/power) to work, to marginal starter. But all of these suggest a starter is possible.

Floor:
Big range again. Depth in specific schemes to rookie starter. Most on the lower end of this range.

Projected Round:
3-4

My Take:
Simpson's floor might be low, but he's a potential starter in the NFL on the right side with possible RT chops, but he's likely to become a starting RG within his first two seasons. Where he goes from there is anyone's guess, but his comparisons, his strength and athleticism, suggest a high ceiling.

 

Apparently, Arnette ran a 4.43 at the Combine. Google it. It's an interesting story. If he were at 4.43, he would have had the 9th fastest time among DBs, instead of the 32nd fastest at the position. I think that would have mattered to some.

 

BTW, I have done some deep dive stuff on drafts generally. John Simpson is the fourth OG off the board. In the past five drafts, the 2nd, 4th, and 3rd OGs have turned in the highest player values by position. At 109, the odds of making a Pro Bowl are about 0.3% per season and 0.2% to make an All Pro, but most top-4 OG in a draft class has become a starter (80%).

 

Deep Dive on Amik Robertson

Pros:
Robertson is a physical player despite his size whose burst allows him to close quickly on balls. He has excellent anticipation and ball skills. He moves fluidly, has soft hands, good speed, and plays fearlessly. He makes a ton of plays on the field. He crowds receivers and and makes the most with the ball in his hands.

Cons:
Roberton's major limitation is his size - both height and lack of bulk. He will struggle to cover big bodies, to tackle them, and will struggle to shed blockers. As a result of the size disparity, he sells out and plays overeager at times. Competition concerns loom, given his college opponents. Double moves and vertical routes could pose problems for him.

Comparisons
Tavon Young (2 years, 31 g, 17 starts, 10 AV)
Tyrann Mathieu (7 years, 98 G, 89 starts, 2 PB, 1 AP, 44 AV)
Captain Munnerlyn (10 years, 154 G, 85 starts, 42 AV)
-Young is by far the most common comparison. He turned in 17 starts across four years. If Robertson can do only that, he might be a disappointment. Mathieu's big play ability is what some see in Robertson, but Munnerlyn was a steady starter. These are solid prospects for an undersized day three DB.

Ceiling:
Productive starter as a nickel or slot corner.

Floor:
Good backup

Projected Round:
Everything from 2-5, with 4 being the most common.

My Take:
If Robertson were even two inches and ten pounds heavier, he would have been at worst a day two selection. He may be severely limited by scheme, but with some seasoning, he projects to a starting role, likely displacing LaMarcus Joyner. He joins a swarm of talented young players in the Raiders' secondary, and his contributions should be strong for a fourth round selection.

 

Too Early 55-man roster?

QB (3)
Carr
Mariota
Kizer/Peterman
-The first two are locks, and it's Peterman vs. Kizer as the only tough call here. Kizer has shown more as a runner, more as a passer, and is still only 24. I think he gets the nod.

RB 4(7)
Jacobs
Richard
Ingold
Bowden
-Jacobs, Richard, and Ingold step back into their roles from last season. Bowden comes in as a change of pace, picks up 5 or 6 touches a game.

TE 4(11)
Waller
Moreau
Witten
Carrier/O'Leary
-Waller has etablished himself as a top 5 talent at the position. Moreau flashed as an all-around rookie. Witten is a Hall of Famer who still has something to his game. Carrier has the scheme familiarity, but O'Leary is younger and a similar player.

WR 5(16)
Ruggs
Williams
Renfrow
Edwards
Agholor/Jones/Gafford
The first four are easy here. Ruggs and Williams will be WR1 and WR2. Renfrow and Edwards will compete for the slot. After that, things are less clear. Agholor has the greatest production, Gafford has the greatest versatility, but none of the three has played much special teams.

OL 9(25)
Hudson
Jackson
Incognito
Brown
Miller
Sharpe
Good
Simpson
Parker
Kush?
-If Jackson isn't on the move, then the starting five is returning. Sharpe and Good played well enough last year to stick around. Simpson will get his shot. Parker probably mans the ninth spot, and Kush is on the outside, looking in.

Specialist 3 (28)

DI 4(32)
Hurst
Hall
Collins
Hankins
-Hurst is the only returning defensive player with a 70+ grade in consecutive seasons. Hall and Collins make a promising duo up front. Hankins has played well for Oakland.

EDGE 5(37)
Ferrell
Crosby
Nassib
Key
Valoaga?
-Ferrell has a lot to prove, and he has competition. Crosby and Nassib could cause fits for OLs next season. Key has been inconsistent and slowed by injuries, but he probably gets another shot. Valoaga could get the gig. But given that Collins can play some DE, the position is a bit heavy. Raiders might keep only four of these.

LB 6(43)
Littleton
Kwiatkoski
Wilber
Muse
Morrow
Lee
-Littleton and Kwiatkoski are set as the starters - LV used a lot of two LB sets last year. Morrow and Lee both took steps backward last season, but they're probably back in the mix. Wilber and Muse will be fixtures on special teams.

CB 6(49)
Mullen
Nelson
Lawson
Johnson
Robertson
Arnette
-Las Vegas is suddenly relatively deep at CB. Mullen may be the best of the bunch, but Lawson has been steady over the past two seasons. Johnson and the two rookies (Roberts and and Arnette) could push for heavy reps early. That leaves an inconsistent but young and much improved last season Nick Nelson as the last CB.

S 6(55)
Harris
Randall
Heath
Abram
Leavitt
Joyner
-LV added Damarious Randall and Jeff Heath to a corps that returns Harris. Those three should be good. Abram should push for a starting spot, taking departed Karl Joseph's reps. Leavitt will be back. Joyner's role is in question.

 

- agree on Kizer over Peterman.
- Agholor over Gafford.
- someone take Parker...unless by some miracle he has improved.
- Carrier over O'Leary.
- Key should be kept as a situational pass rusher.
- where's CB Nixon? Prefer him over Nelson who was toasted a lot.
- Joyner should go back to Safety with Abram.

 

I would be a little surprised if Parker is gone, but he definitely hasn't lived up to his draft position and early promise.
I know there are a lot of fans who like Nixon. He posted the worst grade of any Raiders player at any position except for Andre James. Maybe the stats don't tell the full story, but I think Nelson is the better player.

 

OUT
QB Deshone Kizer - shows what I know! Haha
TE Paul Butler
DE Kendall Donnerson
OL Kyle Kalis
LB Quintin Poling

IN
LB Javin White
TE Nick Bowers
CB Madre Harper
LS Liam McCullough
OT Sam Young

Sam Young has tons of experience, and he showed decently last year, so maybe Parker is on his way out, gcc?

 

Javin White is a really interesting player...worth a look at his highlights on YouTube.

 

A tall, rangy safety that can cover and tackle? He's worth a shot given the TE's we have to deal with in our own division as well as outside of it.

 

Maybe Kizer's college success hasn't translated to the pro level? I thought he needed better coaching and a system that can use his talents.

I would think the Young signing is for depth. Didn't Parker play some guard too last season? Seymour looks like an intriguing prospect.

Panasiuk not in yet? His college stats looks good. High motor that will do anything. Might be a good fit next to Crosby...

Harper has the prototype specs for a corner. 6-2 with speed. I liked Nelson at first but then the Green Bay preseason game happened. Nixon shut his side of the field down.

 

Yeah. Honestly, I think his prospects of making the team as a special teams player are solid, and he could develop into a cover LB.