Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

I'm waiting for Walter Football's mock to update after FA signings, but here's something to tide you over. You're going to love it.

Walter Football's FA signing grades:
These are CONTRACT grades. Not necessarily how good the player is.

DE Carl Nassib B- (and could be better)
S Jeff Heath A (not as a starter)
TE Jason Witten A
LB Nick Kwiatkoski A
LB Cory Littleton A

Uh...not bad.

 

Flash Tapes.

Nick O'Leary
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRXyuba9Lsc

Agholor
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIQfQTI0T_o

Kwiatkoski (NSFW sound)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZNT7MtfUZs

Littleton (WOW)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkWtxwWOOVo

 

D-Pressure

Nassib (NSFW lyrics)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAQm-__8LkY

Collins (from 2016)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDVAeHC6v2M

Heat (NSFW lyrics)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZ8zr7f0DL8
(and a sad Raiders moment at the end there)

 

One quick thought for the LV Raiders for today - unless they sign someone.

First, on receivers:
Did a quick search for cumulative receiving stats since 2017.

Agholor has the 41st most receptions in that span with 165, 48th in yards with 1867, and he's tied for 30th with 15 TDs.
Tyrell Williams is 73rd in receptions with 126. But he's 40th in yards and tied for 30th in TDs.
Both guys are top 50 in terms of overall production as WRs.

 

Walter Football's Mock is Updated. It's one of the most accurate in the game.

1.12 Jerry Jeudy WR
-Huge lift to a revamped WR corps. Jeudy slots in as the likely WR1 and goes on to have the success Cooper did early on.

1.19 Kenneth Murray LB
-You might say they're set at LB, but Murray can't hurt. They'd be loaded at the position and ready in case of injuries. Murray could even take time to learn the spot while he moves toward mirroring Littleton.

3.80 KJ Hill WR
-Interesting. He's built like a bodybuilder, and he doesn't have great speed, but he's a good route runner and a hard worker. Sounds a lot like Hunter Renfrow. That's not a bad thing. Jeudy, Williams, Agholor, Renfrow, and Hill could work.

3.81 Kristian Fulton CB
-The Raiders could use a CB, and Fulton is a good prospect. He's fast, has okay size for a CB, and could develop quickly into a starter.

3.91 Kenny Willekes DE
-Has the relentlessness and the power to be a nice complement to what the Raiders have in some of their pass rushers. High floor. He'd fit in nicely.

 

Back: Kyle Wilber LB
The only Oakland LB to post 60+ grades on PFF the last two years while on roster. Now 30, he may be the oldest LB on roster. He's a solid special teamer who has contributed in 28 games with the silver and black.

 

Heading toward the draft, quick looks at O (today) and D (tomorrow)

Quick Look by Position

2019 vs. Current

QB
Same solid starter, much improved backup. That's a plus.

RB
The major players all return - Jacobs, Richard, and Ingold. They may miss something with Washington out of the fold. Mostly lateral.

WR
Williams and Renfrow are back, and Agholor is added to the mix with Ateman, Doss, and Zay Jones. It's not obviously much better, but it's not worse. Let's call it even for now.

TE
The Raiders probably have the best TE2 and TE3 in the NFL. And they have one of the top 5 TE1s in the NFL. They dominate at this position and they're better than last year. Big ups.

OL
The Raiders have at least six starter-caliber linemen, and they have three players along the front who could push for Pro Bowl honors in 2020. They've added respectable depth and flexibility. They're at least as good as last year.

Overall: the Raiders have added quality depth on offense, and they're set to make a splash in the draft. Aside from QB and TE, where I don't see them making moves, I could see them going WR early, adding a RB and OL later.

 

DI
Mo Hurst has posted PFF grades of 72+ in both his seasons in the NFL. PJ Hall improved to post a 70+ grade as well. The Raiders add quality depth in Maliek Collins to a group that already includes Johnathan Hankins. They should be able to put pressure on QBs.

EDGE
The Raiders drafted Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby in the 2019 draft and thereby cemented the EDGE spot for years to come. Crosby's relentless pressure and Ferrell's all-around game propelled both players to 62+ grades on PFF. They add a solid pass rusher in Carl Nassib, and they also have Arden Key, Jeremiah Valoaga, and Ade Aruna, all of whom have shown promise. With usual player development, this should be a much improved position.

LB
The Raiders lose Burfict, Whitehead, and presumably Compton. They add Littleton and Kwiatkoski, giving them a much improved top-end. Morrow and Lee are still under 25, so there's hope that one or both of them will fulfil their potential. This is a significantly improved position.

CB
Las Vegas is loaded with Corners who were okay but neither terrible nor great last year. Apple, Mullen, Johnson, Nelson, Lawson, Nixon, and Crawley give tons of bodies for training camp. They lost Worley and Conley since last year, so the position isn't obviously improved, but growth of the youth could cancel out those losses.

S
Vegas loses Joseph, Riley, and Richards, but they add Heath. With Harris, Heath, and Abram, they should be solid against the run. Joyner has to step up. Expect Abram to fill the void of Joseph, with some help, and expect a bounce back from Joyner.

Overall: the Raiders can hope for a synergy effect - slightly better pass rush, much better LB defenders could really lift the team. But if they want to make serious strides, they need another pass defender at CB or Safety. CB is the priority here though.

 

Now that I've done a positional analysis, it's easier to see some draft stuff.

Walter Football has updated again.

1.12 Jerry Jeudy - WR
-arguably the Raiders' biggest need, they grab a topflight WR. I love it.

1.19 Kenneth Murray - LB
-less a need now, especially given that the Raiders ran a lot of 2 LB sets last year, but if they add Murray, LB is loaded. Immediately a strength - both among starters and depth. I'm a little less sold on LB at 19, but if he's the best player available, let's do it.

3.80 KJ Hill - WR
Raiders could add a second WR and no one would mind, especially if he has Hill's YAC ability. I think the Raiders SHOULD add another WR, but I'm not sure it should happen before a CB.

3.81 Kristian Fulton - CB
This is a position of need, and the Raiders finally address it with a quality player. CB is the only other position I could see the Raiders going for in the first round.

3.91 Bradley Anae - Edge
Hard to have too many solid pass rushers in today's NFL. I don't see it as a position of need, but I trust LV's scouting department to find these sort of under the radar high motor players.

One thing that has me really intrigued is a mock that showed the Raiders taking Cam Akers with a third-round pick. If he's there in the third round, I think the Raiders need to pull the trigger on him. Jacobs-Akers-Richard would be a fantastic running back trio.

 

IN: Damarious Randall FS/SCB
OUT: Eli Apple CB

Back: Jordan Devey OL

CB becomes more of a poisition of need, but Safety looks pretty darn solid. Randall was 40th among qualified safeties last year, and he's had really impressive success defending passes from the slot.

 

Two of the most reliable mock drafts are showing...

Walterfootball
1.12 Jerry Jeudy WR
1.19 Kenneth Murray LB
3.80 KJ Hill WR
3.81 Kristian Fulton CB
3.91 Bradley Anae Edge

Chris Hansen's
1.12 Jerry Jeudy WR
1.19 Kristian Fulton CB
3.80 Josh Uche, Edge
3.81 Raekwon Davis, DI
3.91 AJ Green, CB

 

I watched a video on Nelson Agholor in college, and I was immediately reminded of how he shredded my beloved Irish. He was lethal in the return game, and he was sneaky and explosive in the receiving game.

He totaled 178 receptions for 2572 yards and 20 scores through the air. He added 14.6 yards per punt return and returned 4 of his 37 attempts for scores.

So, I found a video of all of his 2015 NFL targets and did a deep dive.



PROS
He's fast.
-He can separate from DBs. He ran a 4.42 and it shows.

He's great after the catch.
-He was 44th in YAC in 2018, but he fell to about 170th last season.

He's willing to put his body on the line.
-He rang up 66 first down catches in 32 games from 2017-2018, including 12 TDs.

He makes tough catches.
-He has some highlight catches - includng one handed grabs in traffic.

CONS
He bobbles balls, especially on deep balls where he extends his hands over his head.
-He dropped four passes last season, on 69 targets. He caught 39 passes. Among players with 4 drops, 15 had more targets, 1 had equal, and 12 had fewer targets. So, his hands might be unfairly maligned. They're not great, but they're about average in that mix. In 2018 he had 3 drops on 97 targets vs. 64 receptions. Among players with 3 drops, only 7 of the 68 had more targets.

He seemed to miscommunicate with Bradford a few times.
-Agholor has not posted a good catch% - in fact, only once in his career has it been better than his team average.

He doesn't secure the ball and so loses some passes as he's falling.
-He's had five fumbles, including at least one on a running play.

 

So, draft daydreaming.

Realistic Utopian Scenario

Trade #19, get a second and a third or fourth.
WR: Raiders wind up with CeeDee Lamb and Chase Claypool

I know we need lots of other stuff, but Lamb would make this team legit. Lamb and Claypool would make Carr an All Pro.

 

1.12: Henry Ruggs III WR Bama
The first selection by the Las Vegas Raiders.
Dude is an absolute weapon. He'll stretch the field, command attention, and make life easier for everyone on offense.

 

1.19 Damon Arnette CB OSU
Reach? Maybe, but it's need and a solid ceiling. He allowed the lowest passer rating when targeted among all draft eligible CBs.

 

That's it - LV addresses their major weaknesses in Day 1 of the draft.

 

Carr does NOT have ANY excuses NOT to take deep shots downfield. Ruggs III obviously the speed threat (Al Davis' cadaver pictured with an ear to ear grin), Williams now moves to WR2 against the lesser starting corner for intermediate routes and can be the red zone target like Crabtree was. Renfrow is money for first downs.

Oh and there's Waller, Jacobs, Moreau and Old Man Witten.

Know next to nothing about Arnette but looks to be a solid, fundamentally sound corner. Seems like a mid-size DB.

In Mayock I trust...

 

1.12 Henry Ruggs WR Bama
5'11" 188



Absurd athlete: 4.27 40, 42" vertical, 131" broad jump.
NFL.com has him at 6.72, year 1 quality starter

His comparables are DeSean Jackson (3-time Pro Bowler), Tyreek Hill (four-time Pro Bowler, twice All Pro), and Emmanuel Sanders (twice a Pro Bowler). His athletic profile is similar to Marquise Goodwin.

Best Case Scenario: He becomes a multi-year Pro Bowler. He has the after catch ability to pile up 100 yard games with ease. And he has the game-breaking speed that will free things up for LV's other receivers.

Worst Case Scenario: He ends up much more like Emmanuel Sanders and other burners who are incredibly productive on a per-catch basis but end up running few routes where they're targeted and mostly going for long plays that are less efficient.

My Take: What separates Ruggs from a lot of other speedy WRs is his tenacity. He's a football player. Not just a track star. His work ethic is apparently off the charts, too. Maybe it's not the player many expected, but he's going to be good.

Need: Strong
Fit: Strong
Ability: Strong

Grade: A-

1.19 Damon Arnette CB Ohio State
6' 195



Not a flashy player but one who does the dirty work and shows well in on-field metrics.
NFL.com: 6.10 (Good backup who could become starter)

Comparisons: Darius Slay (three-time Pro Bowler, once an All Pro), Kyle Fuller (two time Pro Bowler, once All Pro)

Best Case Scenario: He's a Pro Bowler. He has the press cover ability, the scheme versatility, and the physicality to stay on the field on all downs and make life difficult for anyone not running go routes.

Worst Case Scenario: He's a backup CB or Nickel. His lack of elite speed and his grabbiness could make for a difficult adjustment.

My take: Hand injury prevented him from participating in many drills, and he ran just a 4.56. He's such an interesting case, because if you look at the Combine, you won't be impressed. If you look at production on the field, you'll see 5 INTs and 22 PDs in four seasons. But his advanced metrics are impressive. He allowed just 27.8% of passes to be completed last season when in single coverage. He was third in PFF grade in "obvious passing situations." It's a reach, I suppose, but Walter Football had him going in rounds 1-2. Solak on The Draft Network had him as a day 1 pick, too. His floor/ceiling differential might scare some.

Need: Strong
Fit: Strong
Ability: Strong

Grade: B