2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

In: Jalin Marshall WR/Returner

Out: Someone?

 

In:
Lukayus McNeil, G
Tyler Roemer, T

 

In: Jalin Marshall...cut after preseason.
Out: no one, Harris is too valuable on special teams

 

I agree. I don’t see anyone on the roster who can do what Harris does.

 

Quick Stat Projections
Receivers are:
Games/Starts
Targets-Receptions-Yards-TDs


Carr's Raw Stats
16/16
351-532-3760-22-9

Carr's Adjusted Stats
26 TDs

Brown's Raw Stats
16/16
107-1395-12

Williams's Raw Stats
16/14
45-836-7

Willson's Raw Stats
14/10
30-244-2

Renfrow's Raw Stats
15/1
27-18-178-1

Grant's Raw Stats
15/6
45-29-327-2

Moreau's Raw Stats
14/3
25-15-189-1

Richard's Raw Stats
16/2
68-326-1 (rush)
50-40-391-0 (rec)

Jacobs's Raw Stats
193-907-7 (rushing)
38-27-208-1 (receiving)

 

Raiders' positional grades, post-draft and UDFA. Compared to post-FA.

Grades based on historical performance, not yet on projections. For instance, I ran some projections on the WRs. They could be much better than a D+. TE might be not very good for a season, but Moreau is promising long-term. Same goes for the defensive front and CB.

OFFENSE
QB: B- (12/15) (solid starter, solid to good backup). Was: C+.
RB: B- (12/15) (solid starter, good 3rd down back). Was: F.
WR: D+ (25/37.5) (good 1, respectable 2, and league average 3). Was C- (losing Nelson does hurt)
TE: D (19/30) decent TE1 and probably rookie, promising TE2. Was D (losing Smith hurts)
OL: C- (53.5/75) Three good starters, one sophomore, and one question mark. Was: C (losing Penn hurts).
Changes: C+,C,C-,D,F changes to B-, B-, C-, D, D+ = big changes. Four total steps.


DEFENSE
DI: D (One good, one promising sophomore, one solid vet, and one vet who could recover from injury to massively improve this unit). Was: D-.
EDGE: D- (One promising rookie, one decent vet, and one sophomore who could break out). Was: F.
LB: C+ (penciling in Marshall, Lee, and Whitehead, but Lee, Burfict, and/or Coney would further push this unit). Was: D+.
CB: INCOMPLETE. (Conley played elite against the pass last season, but Lawson, Worley, Nelson, Johnson, and Mullen are all under 24 years old and lacking NFL tape to justify a high grade). This could be an F, or strong play by Conley and infusion of talent in the young guys could push this to a C-. Was: D+.
S: B. (Two, no three, solid options at Safety). Was: F.
Changes: D+, D+, D-, F, F changes to B, C+, D, D-, INC. That's at least ten total steps. Look for the D to be much improved.

The offense ranked 23rd last year. They should be able to scratch top-20.
The defense ranked 32nd last year. They could move up to the mid-20s, realistically. Let's say 27th, for starters.

That's a 7-9 team.

 

The Pressure is On: QB Hits and Sacks
With Benson Mayowa, Arden Key, and Clelin Ferrell, the Raiders have a DE rotation ready to put some shots on the QB. This is a marked change from last season. So, here's a quick dig into why the pass rush should be far more deadly. It unfolds in three stages.

STAGE 1: BENSON MAYOWA
Mayowa tied for 80th in the NFL in QB hits last season. His 11 would have tied for the team lead, and his 4.0 sacks would (pitifully) have tied for the squad lead, too. These numbers aren't elite, but they're big improvements from other on-squad options like James Cowser (1 QB hit, 1 sack in 22 games), Alex Barrett (no qb hits last season), and Josh Mauro (averaging 3 QB hits and <1 sack per season over the last four years).
2018 DE1 QB Hits, Sacks: 11, 1.0
2019 DE1 QB Hits, Sacks: 11, 4.0

STAGE 2: ARDEN KEY
Last year, 28 players recorded 20+ QB hits. The fewest sacks by any of those players was 5.5 - from Stephon Tuitt (a DT). But 73 more players tallied at least 10 QB hits. Among those was the top-ranked Raider. Arden Key's 11 QB hits tied (with Mayowa and others) for 80th most. His 1.0 sacks, however, were tied for the worst on the list. I think that was in part due to the lack of a solid DE on the other side from him.

Brief Look: 10+ QB Hits, 2- Sacks
Kareem Martin 10/1.5
Arden Key 11/1.0
Lawrence Guy 11/1.0

Back to Key
Key's 11 QB Hits were the 49th most by a rookie since 2006 (when PFR has data). Among the 70 players who recorded at least 10 QB Hits as a rookie, I'll focus on just those with 10 or 11 (Key was at 11) and leave out the beasts.

Those rookies who recorded 10 QB hits have gone onto the following trends:
Year 2: 4.5 sacks, 10 hits
Year 3: 5 sacks, 11 hits
Year 4: 3.5 sacks, 10 hits
Year 5: 3 sacks, 6 hits

So, while these aren't monstrous numbers, they suggest a few things - Key is likely to pick up more sacks even if his pressure rate doesn't change. And he's likely to do about the same for the duration of his rookie deal.
2018 DE2 QB Hits, Sacks: 5, 3.0
2019 DE2 QB Hits, Sacks: 10, 4.5

STAGE 3: CLELIN FERRELL
Ferrell's comparisons are an interesting mix. From Derrick Morgan to Chandler Jones (Pro Bowler, All-Pro), Vinny Curry, and Olivier Vernon (Pro Bowler) to Chris Long. I don't see a dominant pass rusher in Ferrell, but I do see a very good career ahead of him (with some big numbers eventually) and a better actual player than fantasy play. With someone on the opposite side to clean up what Ferrell creates, his major value is stabilizing one side of the line, playing strong against the run and against the pass, even if he's not cleaning up with sacks. I'll pencil him in for 3 sacks and 6 QB hits.
2018 DE3: 2 hits, 1 sack
2019 DE3: 6 hits, 3 sacks

SUMMING
2018 DE Play: 18 QB Hits, 5.0 sacks
2019 DE Play: 27 QB Hits, 11.5 sacks
--That's a pressure rate increase of about 67%, meaning as where a QB was hit by a Raider DE roughly 1.5 times per game last season, they'll be hit more than twice a game by a DE this season. BTW, Oakland needs to add about 26 sacks to move to the middle of the pack for QB Sacks, using last season's data. They make up 1/4 of that ground with one position and two players. Not bad.

 

Minor update. I did the checking on Ferrell's comparables.

So, averaging all the players in the last six years who were DEs drafted around #4 (actually #3-6, or even as far back as mid-20s) and the second DE drafted overall, I came up with the following first four year projection:

[13 games, 08 starts, 5.5 sacks, 14 QB hits]
[16 games, 15 starts, 6.0 sacks, 18 hits, 7 AV 10% PB]
[12 games, 10 starts, 5.0 sacks, 17 hits, 5 AV, 38% PB]
[15 games, 15 starts, 5.5 sacks, 18 hits, 8 AV, 33% pb]

if Ferrell did those first year numbers, the DE group would be up to about 35 QB Hits and 14 sacks. Not bad.

 

Slowly working through some projections. Here is 4th-rounder Maxx Crosby

YEAR...[games/starts////sacks/qb hits////added value]
Year 1: [05/00 0.5/01 1]
Year 2: [12/04 3.5/07 4]
Year 3: [14/11 3.5/12 6]
Year 4: [15/03 4.0/06 4]
Year 5: [13/07 5.0/11 4]

That's not a bad career start, and it fits well with what Crosby might do - raw at first, becomes a solid pass rusher. Not a star.

 

I'm working through a positional evaluation - depth chart and all. When I have it all ready, I'll get it posted. Here's a progress report.

OFFENSE
QB - done
RB - done
TE - done
WR - done
OL - done

DEFENSE
DI - done
DE - done
LB
CB
S

SPECIAL TEAMS
P
K
Returner
LS

 

Quick Hit: Raiders added Richie Incognito and cut ties with Chaz Green.

My take on Green:
Green played 4 games for Oakland, started 1, and posted a 1 AV. In his three seasons, he has 22 games, 7 starts, and 5 AV. He also has 2 holding calls, 2 false starts, and two other penalties against him. He had a poor score coming into the league (5.08 draft grade), and his comparable is out of the league. Ouch. He also posted the worst PFF grade of any Raider on roster last season. Double ouch. He’s a cut candidate.

My take on Richie Incognito:
Incognito was out of the league last year, marking the second time in five seasons he was not on roster. In the three years between those MIA seasons, he was a Pro Bowler each time, posted an AV between 9 and 11, and started all 48 games for Buffalo. His Combine numbers (admittedly long ago) were 99th percentile 40-yard dash and 76th percentile bench, showing a rare combination of strength and speed. He's probably slower but about as strong now. From 2008 to 2017, Incognito's lowest PFF grade was 80.5, and his highest was 89.1. In 2015, 16, and 17, he averaged above an 84, better than every year prior to 2013. He's still probably very good, in other words. Remember that NO Raider hit 80 last year at any position, and other than Rodney Hudson's 76.8, no OL was above 70. There's a lot to question about Incognito, but his ability to play football isn't a question.

 

Drop/Add

DROPPED
Yurachek - practice squad (PRACTICE SQUAD)
Yurachek has been on the practice squad, and he will probably remain there. He’s not likely good enough to supplant either Smith or Ingold, and he’s not leap frogging both barring injury.


ADDED
DJ Killings – Non-Descript CB - UNLIKELY
Killings was picked up by the Patriots, which is a good thing. Then he was released, which speaks poorly of him. His physical profile is average - plus, he's 5'10", 187 pounds, and 23 years old. This all speaks to utterly non-descript DB in the NFL. He had a very weak draft profile, and he didn't crack a roster in two seasons.

The fact is that neither of these guys will make the team or make a difference this season.

 

updated...

OFFENSE
QB - done
RB - done
TE - done
WR - done
OL - done

DEFENSE
DI - done
DE - done
LB - done
CB - done
S

SPECIAL TEAMS
P
K
Returner
LS

 

Catching up. Not a lot of surprising moves. In fact, Warren was the only one I'd consider remotely shocking.

JUNE Transactions
IN: Montay Crockett WR
IN: Isaiah Langley CB
OUT: Makinton Dorleant DB (I had him GONE)
OUT: Montrel Meander S (I had him UNLIKELY)

JULY Transactions
IN: Jonathan Cooper G
OUT: Montay Crockett WR (That was brief)
IN: De'Mornay Pierson-El
OUT: Saeed Blacknall WR (GONE)
IN: James Butler RB
OUT: Chris Warren III (I had him as a tough call; he's gone)
IN: Ethan Westbrook DT
OUT: Ronald Ollie DT (long shot)
OUT: Erik Swoope TE (long shot)

AUGUST Transactions
IN: Anthony Rush DT
IN: Jordan Lasley WR
OUT: Brian Burt WR

 

I hope Lasley sticks (though not likely)... He was a very good wide-out at UCLA, one of Rosen's main targets there.

 

RIP Cliff Branch...

 

He has a profile similar to Rueben Randle, who has had solid success.

 

I'm loving the things I'm hearing about Renfrow and Waller. I have fairly conservative projections on them, and I won't change them, but I'm pumped for what they might do.

Waller: 14 receptions, 170 yards
I went back to watch tape on him in college. He was a fascinating player - clearly a TE in a WR body. He's had two major suspensions for marijuana - and the next one would put him out of the league for the long run. But he looks healthy, strong, and incredibly lean this year. He's been taking care of himself.

Renfrow: 18 receptions, 178 yards, 1 TD
He continues to defy stereotypes. He has good NFL agility. Other than that, his physical profile seems laughable. He's 5'10", 184 (if he's lucky), he's already 23 1/2. His burst score is in the 33rd percentile, his 40-yard dash is in the 34th; his speed score (relative to height) is in the 11th percentile; and his catch radius is 24th percentile. He's small and not fast enough, it seems, to make a difference. Interestingly, his profile isn't that different from Wes Welker's - 66th agility, then SINGLE DIGITS in all other measures (9th 40 time, 4th catch radius, 2nd speed, 1st burst). Remember - low is BAD here. A 1st percentile score means you're better than 1% of players at your position. Still, none of this stopped Welker from getting open and even doing things after the catch. Don't expect Welker-like numbers, but don't sell Renfrow short.

Note: If one of the other major pass-catching TE is released, Waller's stock will rise. If he begins the year as the top receiving TE option, the expectations could double, but I still wouldn't book him on 40+ receptions.

 

Preseason Game 1 Thoughts:

OFFENSE
QB
DOWN: Glennon's first INT was bad. The second was awful.
UP: Peterman's scramble - Gruden loves it.

RB:
UP: Washington ran with determination, breaking tackles on a reception and his TD run. Beautiful one-handed grab. Converted a fourth and 1.
UP: Ingold made two grabs. I think he's winning the FB spot. Did he just make a third grab?
UP: James Butler picks up a first down on third and 1. Ran hard on the play before Peterman's TD pass. Hits the hole hard late in the third.

WR
UP: Keon Hatcher with a nice move after the catch. B2B catches, didn't go down easy.
UP: Ryan Grant made the kind of catch that Gruden loves.
Jordan Lasley made a nice move after a catch.
Ateman made a nice move after the catch.
JJ Nelson made a grab that is showing up on highlights, but it was bad coverage and Nelson committed a PI on it.
Doss's TD catch - good adjustment. Just looks slow in open space on a fourth quarter catch.

TE
Moreau looked decently athletic on his catch.

OL
UP: Jonathan Cooper had a great block on Washington's fourth down conversion.
Parker had a beautiful block on Washington's TD run. Illegal hands to face - killer before the half.
Justin Murray - poorly executed cut block leads to a Peterman sack.


SPECIAL TEAMS
UP: Pierson-El was destroyed on that first punt, but when he finally got to field it, he looked like he knows what to do with the ball. Great return.

DEFENSE
DL:
Ferrell - lumbered a bit early, like the speed was a little faster than he was accustomed to. Drew a hold. Big play on third down to run down the QB. Gets down the line quickly, made another tackle in the backfield on a run to the opposite side, it looked (3:11 remaining in the first half)

Key looks faster and seemed to diagnose plays more quickly. He almost grabbed a pick six on a screen he got in the middle of. Great speed on his sack (but it was against a rookie - Bobby Evans).

Hurst pushed the pocket on Key's sack. Drew a hold in the fourth.

Anthony Rush stout against the run.

Crosby showed two things - great pursuit in the run game and a super fast first move. He has to add skill to that speed though and probably strength to sustain it.

Alex Barrett - good presure in the fourth.

DBs
Looked like blown coverage by Dallin Leavitt in the fourth.
UP: Nevin Lawson had good coverage on his PI, but he didn't turn his head. He broke up a pass on the very next play. Encouraging two plays there.
DJ Killings blew up a pass out into the flat. Great closing speed.

LBs
Still look like they can't cover.
Cabinda and Lee both seemed to give acres of real estate. Cabinda did it twice so far.

 

- Millen couldn't stress it enough that our ends need to put on some weight and are just inexperienced but I like their potential...
- Glennon looked good when he is set where he was accurate. Unfortunately, most every play in The League will not be perfect.
- Peterman looked smallish though he is good when the play breaks down.
- so many competent wide-outs, this will be interesting who gets cut.
- DBs...see wide-outs. Mullen, Worley, Lawson, Washington.
- Defense? Fast and no quit...could still be susceptible to the run though with Burfict and Whitehead, not as much.
- @trodgers Marshall looks to be (and likely will be) our best coverage linebacker.
- did not know that Gannon competed with Sammy Baugh for the starting job per Milen.
- glad to see Millen healthy after heart surgery (too many S&B alumni passed on).