2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

I was hoping for Williams to shore up our defense plus he WANTED to be in the S&B. There are other top shelf receivers out there to be had. Not as hyped as Cooper but still... OK, D-Carr, ya got yer prime time target, better be some sixes in the end zone.

SI rating: A-

 

Better be a pass rush stud in the later rounds for us...

 

Benardrick McKinney still available?

 

I want to talk realistic expectations for a WR drafted in the first round. I'll begin with the hard averages, through their first four years (rookie contract) in the league:

Four Year Stats:
Year 1: 14 Games, 9 Starts, 50 receptions, 686 yards, 4 TDs
Year 2: 15 Games, 12 Starts, 54 receptions, 767 yards, 4.7 TDs
Year 3: 12 Games, 10 Starts, 53 receptions, 768 yards, 4.8 TDs
Year 4: 13 Games, 13 Starts, 64 receptions, 896 yards, 6.6 TDs
54 Games, 44 Starts, 221 receptions, 3117 yards, 20.1 TDs

Everyone hopes their rookie will be better than average, so here are more stats:
Year 1
Range: 43-57 receptions, 557-814 yards, 3.2-5.7 TDs
60+ receptions: 6/17
75+ receptions:1/17
850+ yards: 6/17
1000+ yards: 3/17
6+ TDs: 6/17
9+ TDs: 2/17

Year 2
Range: 43-65 receptions, 589-944 yards, 1.3-6.3 TDs
60+ receptions: 7/14
75+ receptions: 4/14
850+ yards: 7/15
1000+ yards: 5/14
6+ TDs: 6/14
10+ TDs: 3/14

Year 3
Range: 40-67 receptions, 3.2-6.4 TDs, 574-958 yards, 3.7-6.9 TDs
60+ receptions: 6/12
75+ receptions: 3/12
850+ yards: 6/12
1000+ yards: 3/12
6+ TDs: 5/12
10+ TDs: 3/12

Year 4
Range: 39-79 receptions, 674-1108 yards, 4.9-8.3 TDs
60+ receptions: 6/9
75+ receptions: 4/9
850+ yards: 6/9
1000+ yards: 5/9
6+ TDs: 6/9
10+ TDs: 2/9

 

Wtf, Raiders?

 

Exactly... Potential perhaps?

 

Weird. He should've been there next round. He's high ceiling, but he's a slacker. Maybe they think he won't be able to slack with Tuck and Mack eyeballing him.

 

Dorsett will be a weapon though. For sure.

 

Oakland drafting needs. Not best available. Tough to complain.

 

We have added arguably the best talent in the draft, a receiving TE, and a potential high level starting DE. Weaknesses remaining? DB.

 

I expect Edwards to be pushing for snaps across from Tuck by season's end. After that he's either going to take over the starting job or he'll be a career borderline starter. We could be incredibly fortunate with him. FWIW after his Pro Day everyone had him sailing up the draft board, and many thought he could go first round or first half of the second. So less a reach than what I'd initially thought.

Walford is interesting. He'll likely be one of our two starters (we're supposed to run two TE sets) by next year (2016).

 

DL taken in the second round, MIDRANGE

Year 1
12.4 Games, 3 Starts, .4 FF, .4 FR, 1.8 Sacks, 13 Tackles, 7 Assists

Year 2
12.8 Games, 7.7 Starts, 0.3 FF, 0.2 FR, 2.2 Sacks, 16 Tackles, 8 Assists

Year 3
10.8 Games, 6.7 Starts, 0.2 FF, 0.1 FR, 1.6 Sacks, 12 Tackles, 9 Assists

Year 4
10 Games, 5.3 Starts, 0 FF, .1 FR, .9 Sacks, 13 Tackles, 6 Assists

46 Games, 22.9 Starts, .9 FF, .8 FR, 6.5 Sacks, 54 Tackles, 30 Assists

Because Edwards does two things reasonably well, I'll include a top end of midrange for Sacks and Forced Fumbles.

Year 1
Sack Range: 0.9-2.8
FF Range: .16-.70

Year 2
Sack Range: 1.3-3.3
FF Range: .09-.52

Year 3
Sack Range: 0.8-2.4
FF Range: .04-.36

Year 4
Sack Range: .4-1.5
FF Range: 0-2

 

Some to look out for:

HONORABLE MENTION - Some interesting players, but we might have bigger fish to fry...
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (CB - Oregon)
He's raw, but he goes after the ball when it's in the air. Picked off nine passes over his last three seasons. Defended 43 passes in his career, forced 8 fumbles, too. He tore up his knee before a postseason game, but it's thought that he should be able to become a competent to excellent NFL starter if he gets his technique squared.

Tre Flowers (DL - Arkansas)
Racked up 17 sacks over his last three seasons in college, added 13 career passes defended and 4 Forced Fumbles. Finished his career with second best in the SEC 48 tackles for loss. Not ideal size for some schemes, not ideal quickness for others. Would need time to become a consistent pass rusher.

Charles Gaines (DB/WR - Louisville)
Gaines picked off 7 passes in two seasons, defended 17 more, and forced a fumble. Also caught 11 passes for 172 yards and a TD as a frosh. Solid in coverage, not much in run support right now. Can get burned deep.

The Top 5
5. Derron Smith (DB - Fresno State)
Played five seasons at Fresno State, racked up 221 solo tackles, 13.5 for loss, and added 4 sacks. Picked off 14 passes over his final three seaons with big play potential - ran two back for TDs, averaged 19.7 yards per INT return in his career. Defended 25 passes. Not tall for a DB, can't cover NFL TEs is the word from NFL.com. Plays out of control sometimes, but could be a starter in the future.

4. Michael Bennett (DT - OSU)
Oakland probably doesn't need another DT, but Bennet is pretty NFL ready now, after picking up 25.5 tackles for loss and 14 sacks over his final two college seasons. He also forced seven fumbles in that time. At 6'2", 293, has good speed, is very powerful. Needs to beef up his legs, but he has a powerful upper body he probably relies upon too much. Was projected in the 2nd round.

3. Jarvis Harrison (OG - TAMU)
He's 6'4", 330, and played basketball, so he has excellent quickness. Could be a very successful fit in Oakland's planned uptempo offense. Has had issues with weight and conditioning (the latter following surgery, mind you). Said to have Pro Bowl caliber talent by an AFC scout.

2. Tre Jackson (OG - FSU)
Veteran and pedigreed already. He started 42 college games, was MVP of the 2015 Senior Bowl. All-American in 2014. Won a national championship. He's 6'4", 330, and si a pretty awesome run blocker. Needs to drop some weight, add some technique, and he can start. Was a teammate of current Raider OL Menelik Watson.

1. T.J Clemmings (OT - Pittsburg)
Played DE in college a bit before moving to Right Tackle (became second-team all-American, 1st team All-ACC). He's 6'5", 309 pounds, and has quick feet. Gets downfield to block. He's nasty, but he's a bit raw. Has been suggested a a second round, even a first round pick.

Give me one of those OL, a DB, and then let's get creative with 6th and 7th round picks.

 

Raiders trade their early 4th pick to move to 124th overall (25th in 4th). They add picks 161 (5th round) and 242 (7th round).

Remaining picks:
Round 4: #124
Round 5: #140
Round 5: #161
Round 6: #179
Round 7: #221
Round 7: #242

Six more dudes to be added. I'm getting pumped.

 

Looks like Raiders trade with the Bucs.
Traded #124 to move to #128 and add #218.

Remaining Picks:
Round 4: #128
Round 5: #140, #161
Round 6: #179
Round 7: #218
Round 7: #221
Round 7: #242

Lots of interesting players available there in the 7th. And Oakland has had reasonable success of late with 7th rounders.
Last year they added Carrie, Harris, and Dowling. They combined to play in 21 games last year as rookies.
In 2013 they selected Butler and David Bass. Butler has good potential, while Bass has gone to to play 20 games with Chicago (and pick up 4 sacks).

 

Michael Bennett is still available. Derron Smith and Grady Jarrett, too. Bobby Richardson (DT) and Lorenzo Doss (CB) are next. Oakland should grab Doss or Smith.

 

Round 4: #128 John Feliciano, OG (and some T), Miami.
Round 5: #140, #161
Round 6: #179
Round 7: #218
Round 7: #221
Round 7: #242

Head scratcher. Has a terrible rating on NFL.com. He was projected in the 6th to 7th round elsewhere, sometimes as a Priority FA signing among rookies. ESPN calls him a better run blocker than pass protector (but he allowed only 4 sacks in three seasons). Hmm. Mayock didn't seem to hate him, but he didn't say much positive.