2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

Okay, so the Raiders and Erik Harris have agreed on a two-year deal. Two years, $2.5m guaranteed, up to $6.5m with bonuses. The lower guaranteed money for multiple years is a great sign for the Raiders.

Raiders re-sign Cabinda to a one-year, $570k contract. He was both the youngest and highest graded LB on the roster, and he was one of three I had tagged for re-signing. Happy to see this. He's at worst good depth and Special Teams.

Raiders re-sign Daniel Carlson to a one-year, $570k contract. He earned it.

 

Antonio Brown joins the S&B - for a third and a fifth.
Raiders add guaranteed money for three years (like 38m?) and top end money (51m?).

Projected stats:
15 games
15 starts
103 receptions
1374 yards
12 TDs

Top-grade PFF WR over the last nine seasons.

His 79.4 PFF grade was better than every player on the Raiders last season.

 

What does Adding AB do to the receiving corps?

I previously wrote...

The top three were 9-5-5, but AB pushes that to 12.5-9-5. That's 26.5, which isn't good, but it's a hell of a lot better than it was.

Brown was a 12/15 (80%) or 13/15 (87%) in my ranking system. Let's call him a 12.5. That's a B.

This move almost certainly means that the Raiders are done spending $$ on FA WRs. They also probably won't use one of their top picks to bring in a WR. I could see them trying to grab someone later in the draft. There are rumors they're interested in bringing back Bryant, who may be finished with suspension.

 

What we gave up in draft picks was acceptable...

 

Osemele and a sixth for a fifth? Hmm. Will save them $21m over the next two seasons. Better put that money to work.

 

Raiders Transactions (Summary)
I'll keep updating this.

1. Trade 3rd and 5th rounder for Antonio Brown

2. Hankins re-signed

3. Harris re-signed

4. Osemele (and a 6th) traded for a 5th rounder

Raiders Transactions (Write-up)

#1
IN: Antonio Brown
OUT: The 66th and 142nd picks.
Raiders take on some guaranteed money over the next three years, at about $10m per season. Possibly as much as $17m on average. They lose what was likely an NFL starter and a journeyman.
Impact: Add best WR, improving the Raiders’ WR grade from 42% to 58%.

#2
BACK: Hankins, two-year deal, but I don’t know the details yet.
He earned $2.25m last season. Speculating 2 years, $5m.
Impact: He adds depth, possible three-man rotation up front, and improves DI from a D- to a D (63%).

#3
BACK: Harris, two-years, $2.5m guaranteed (up to $6.5m).
This is a huge add for Oakland, even if Harris only plays on D in spurts and contributes mostly on special teams. He has shown the ability to fill in admirably on defense, and he can start here and there at a solid level.
Impact: Improves Oakland’s Safety position from an F (53%) to a C+ (78%).

#4
OUT: Osemele and 176th pick.
IN: 141st (?) pick.
Osemele’s exodus frees up $10.2m this season and $11.7m next season, basically paying for Antonio Brown for two seasons.
Impact: Raiders’ OL drops from 56 to 53%, which is a small drop. This move may look much better on paper than it ends up being, but the big question here is how healthy Osemele is. If he’s healthy and AB flops, the Jets win the trade. But there are so many ways for Oakland to win the trade: Osemele sucks, AB romps, or the young OTs on Oakland step up their games. Yes, Oakland needs an OG, but this is a move the fans will likely come to understand was a shrewd play.

 

#5. Trent Brown
IN: Trent Brown
Raiders adding Trent Brown on a four-year, $66m deal ($36.75m guaranteed).
Impact: Brown probably moves to LT, bumping one of the rooks to Guard. The OL had dropped to 53% with the loss of Osemele, but Brown really bolsters the unit, pushing it up to 71% (C-). If any of the rookies grows or if Penn is even a bit better than last year, this is a pretty boss unit now.

 

Good and Jackson at the G spots, Hudson at C with Miller and Brown at the T's... Very good. Maybe we can retain Feliciano for depth?

 

I’m not sold on Good as a starter, but we have options.

Joyner is tough. I think he’s overrated after 2017, he talks too much, too. But he’s absolutely a starting caliber S. If it’s four years, $41m. That’s not bad.

 

I knew him at FSU. Off the field. He seemed cool then.

 

#6. LaMarcus Joyner
IN: Joyner, S
Reported four-year, $41m deal. No clue on the structure yet.
Impact: Joyner was ridiculous in 2017, good in 2018, and he comes at a salary that looks manageable if that's the extent of it. If Joseph and Joyner are starting, Harris is freed up. But Joyner gives options, having played Nickel and Dime. While it's not super clear Joyner offers an upgrade on any given down, he is time-tested in a way Harris isn't. With CB in a world of hurt at present, Joyner/Harris offer a massive upgrade in passing situations:

CB is 13/30 (F)
S is 25/30 (B)
DBs overall: 56% up to 67% (D+)

 

Joyner-Conley-Joseph-Harris is probably the start of the best set of DBs the Raiders have had in a decade.

 

Raiders Transactions (Summary)
I'll keep updating this.

1. Trade 3rd and 5th rounder for Antonio Brown
2. Hankins re-signed
3. Harris re-signed
4. Osemele (and a 6th) traded for a 5th rounder
5. Trent Brown signed 4/66?
6. LaMarcus Joyner signed 4/41?

 

#7: Jon Feliciano
OUT: Feliciano leaves for Buffalo.
Impact: high on versatility, low on performance. I’m not sure he makes a difference with Oakland, but I was a fan. Wish him all the best.

 

Per SI:

TRENT BROWN, OT
From: New England Patriots
To: Oakland Raiders
Contract: Four years, $66 million ($36.75 million guaranteed)

Breakdown: The Raiders ditched one of the highest-paid guards in football, Kelechi Osemele, and will replace him with Trent Brown, now the highest-paid offensive linemen…ever. This is some kind of sustained rebuild eh? Brown had a nice season in New England last year and is a powerful blocker. While Tom Brady’s methodical pocket presence and quick release tend to make offensive linemen look better (Brown, a seventh-round pick by the 49ers in 2015, was traded to New England last year) he has established himself as one of the premiere tackles in the NFL. I like this move if it doesn’t dramatically impact the development of last year’s first-round pick, Kolton Miller. We’ll see if Brown’s signing means anything for veteran Donald Penn, who is a full decade Brown’s senior.

Grade: A-

 

On Feliciano:
I know it's frustrating losing a guy who was well-liked by fans, but Feliciano's 49.5 rating was lower than the following: Hudson, Jackson, Murray, Sharpe, Clemmings, and Good, in addition to lost Osemele and found Brown.

With Hudson, Jackson, Miller, Parker, Sharpe, Penn, and Brown under contract, the Raiders can add someone else with familiarity to fill Feliciano's shoes: Kirkland, Silberman, Clemmings, McGloster, Green, or Good could do the trick.

Note: I'm now wondering whether Penn is on his way out.

 

FYI: both Brown's and Joyner's contracts have all the guaranteed money in the first two seasons.

 

Look, I have no idea how good Trent Brown is, but I keep seeing this idea that he benefits from Brady's quick release (among other things). While I don't doubt there's a better coaching squad in place in NE than in Oakland, this stat keeps baffling me. Brady throws downfield more quickly than Carr, but no one in the NFL had a quick release than Carr.

Brady's 2.61 seconds to throw was very fast, topped only by Dalton, Brees, Roethlisberger, and Carr among starters. But Carr's tied with Big Ben for #1.

Stats: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

 

Deal #0 Denzelle Good
Back: Good, $1.675m
Impact: Depth on OL, but if he has to start, that's not great news for Oakland. He outperformed both rookie OTs, but he's 2-4 years older than they are.

#0.1
Tender to Daryl Worley
$3.1m value.
Impact: he's not back yet, but he's young and has shown promise.

#0.2
Tender to Jalen Richard
$3.1m value.
Impact: the Raiders need RBs, and Richard will likely receive offers.

Oakland has the 10th most cap space, needs around $8m for their draft picks, and could still move on from Penn.