Randle's jumper still needs a lot of work from what I saw in person during the Easter night game vs the clippers. He was about 20% from 3 and about 40% from mid range in his pregame practice. Contrast that with Matt Barnes, who's a shooter, but no Ray Allen, who was about 75% from 3 and 80% from midrange in warm-up. Most nba players who are expected to shoot in games can shoot very well in practice unguarded. Not Randle. yet. At SF, he can still bully defenders on the block for sure though, especially with love and towns spreading the floor.
Amir Elhassan projection for MIddleton: Khris Middleton | SG | Age: 23 | RFA 2014-15 team: Milwaukee Bucks 2014-15 salary: $915,243 Suggested AAV: $8.0 million/year ($32.0 million over four years) Middleton's been a bright spot in a season of bright spots for the Bucks, emerging as an elite defensive wing with 3-point range. He leads all shooting guards in defensive RPM (plus-4.1), and is second among all wings, making him the ideal complementary player. Ed Davis | PF | Age: 25 | PO 2014-15 team: Los Angeles Lakers 2014-15 salary: $981,000 Suggested AAV: $10.0 million/year ($30.0 million over three years) Last summer, I had Davis among my top 30 free agents consistently, and was shocked when the market left him unsigned. I applauded the Lakers' signing of him, and he's rewarded them with efficient finishing and rebounding. (I think this is a high estimate for Davis) He has some other projections; Love, Dragic, Rondo, Carroll, etc. Suggested AAV: Projection for what he thinks they'll get next year...
10. Greg Monroe | C | Age: 24 | UFA 2014-15 team: Detroit Pistons 2014-15 salary: $5.5 million Suggested AAV: $16.3 million/year ($65.2 million over four years) Monroe took an enormous gamble when he accepted the qualifying offer last summer: he not only can't play his natural position (due to presence of Andre Drummond at center), but he had to contend for minutes at power forward with Josh Smith. Fast-forward to the release of Smith, and Monroe has flourished at the 4 spot for the Pistons. He might eventually want to move back to the 5, but the chemistry developing between he and Drummond would make it worthwhile to keep the pairing intact.
Bucks will have ~50 million in cap commits next season, assuming Dudley picks up his option and Middleton's 2.7 million cap hold. That leaves them 17 million to spend with a lineup consisting of... MCW / Bayless / Ennis (Middleton)/ Mayo Giannis / Dudley Parker/ Ilyasova / O'Bryant Zaza / Henson / Plumlee Add in their own 1st round pick to add to that. What's stopping them from matching Middleton? They don't have enough cap to sign a max level guy, they don't have enough draw as a small market to get a 2nd tier player, what they do have is 17 million to to match any offer that comes Middleton's way. 2016/2017 21.64 million in players they will bring back. Add in 15 million for Middleton, they are at 36.64 million, assuming they bring Henson back (10 million for giggles), it's up to 46.64 million with a cap of 80+ million? They are setup to be able to pay Giannis and MCW the following season and still be competitive to compete in a crappy Eastern Conference. RFA are really not worth the time, especially this season with every team having cap space the following season. Why would small market teams let players like this walk when the cap is about to explode.
Rajon Rondo | PG | Age: 29 | UFA 2014-15 team: Boston C Bags/Dallas Mavericks 2014-15 salary: $12.9 million Suggested AAV: $11.0 million/year ($44.0 million over four years) The marriage between Rondo and the Mavs has been a rocky one; they are a better defensive team with him on the court, but he's struggled to mesh with them offensively, and has clashed with head coach Rick Carlisle several times. He's still an effective playmaker, but he has to be in the right situation, and it's increasingly looking like Dallas isn't that right fit. Kosta Koufos | PF | Age: 29 | UFA 2014-15 team: Memphis Grizzlies 2014-15 salary: $3.0 million Suggested AAV: $11.0 million/year ($33.0 million over three years, partial guarantee in third year) Koufos quietly has developed into a very good defensive center with Memphis, with per 36 averages of 11.1 points and 10.8 rebounds. He probably should have been a starting center somewhere in the league, and he'll likely get his opportunity this summer. Anybody interested in Koufos; last I looked his defensive metrics aren't bad, and I do think that estimate is a little high. What about drafting, Winslow, going after Green and Koufos this off-season. Probably a plan C...LOL I'll tell you what; you get me Rondo for $10 million or under, and I might reconsider my position on going after him...
So my estimation is essentially correct by this guy's standards. That's not all that comforting though since he thinks Ed Davis is going to get 10 million a year. I will be FLOORED if someone offers him more than maybe 8 million a year for 2-3 years. I'd be absolutely shocked. I see him getting something a hell of a lot smaller, but long-term. @Doc Brown you're right, there's nothing stopping them from matching and with the cap due to rise most RFAs will be matched. I have my extreme doubts though that they match a lucrative offer because a) they've got Parker returning and they'll need the space for him, he's the face of the franchise and b) they're a small market team. Just because the cap is increasing, I don't think the small market teams will jump to join it. Especially teams like Milwaukee and Phoenix who have pinched pennies with this lower cap figure. I may be wrong, but we'll see. There are certain teams that I have faith in to go over the cap to keep guys (Phoenix I think might actually), but I don't think Milwaukee would. You're right, they're poised to have control of MCW and Giannis in terms of matching/offering lucrative deals but that's under the assumption they're willing to spend whatever it takes to be competitive. I'm not sure that's the case in Milwaukee. I could be wrong though, who knows? Regardless there's 2-3 SF options that we could go after that wouldn't require the RFA headache. Carroll comes to mind, but I think you have to overpay to get him by a lot. He's got a good deal going in ATL. Danny Green has the same issue. Wes Matthews could be a sneaky signing if we think he can recover, but that's a pretty big risk. The only reason I'm entertaining RFAs is that I'm assuming we nail down one of the two premier big men in the draft. If we draft a SF, then I'm not interested in any of the RFAs anyway. Winslow or Johnson will fill in just fine.
This is how I feel. Wes is too risky, IMO. Carroll and Green not only have nice situations, but they are both system players as well. I wouldn't want to go after either of them. We can afford to swing and miss if we land Towns or Okafor. I think we'll take a swing at Love first. If he rejects us, we'll (gulp) take a swing at Rondo (granted we don't draft Mudiay or Russell. Unfortunately, I think if we are even in the ballpark with Rondo, he signs with us. I do not want this...at all.
1.) If we had MCW / Giannis / Middleton / Parker, would you want to let another team take one of our players for nothing? Of course not. The right mindset is that they will make it work, just like we would be saying if we had 4 players like that (Ex. Love and Randle). They can get away with a lineup of MCW/Giannis/Middleton/Parker/Henson. We would be ecstatic to have that lineup, I bet the Bucks are as well. 2.) The cap is increasing, as well as the salary cap floor, they have to spend 90% of the salary cap to reach the floor. Next season if the cap is 67 million, they need to spend 10 million to get to the 60 million floor. Sounds about right for a Middleton deal right? And then in 2016/2017 when the cap spikes, they are going to need to spend (MCW and Giannis) to reach that floor. Unless they want to pay extra out to their players, the Bucks as well as every other team that will have cap space will need to spend to reach the floor.
But that's US. I simply don't think many other teams operate under the same rules. For example: OKC trading away Harden. Most small market teams aren't willing or able to pay much. Would I let those players go? No probably not, but that's because we're inherently spoiled by a strong franchise with spending power. As for the increasing cap I have my suspicions that some teams will simply skate the floor. Sure Middleton fits their needs to reach the floor, but then every subsequent contract pushes them closer to a cap they have no desire to reach. I wouldn't be surprised if they signed and traded Middleton if his value goes up too high.
We're going to be so surprised with what some of these players make this summer. The result being that some of these teams are going to regret and or love their decisions when the cap increases goes into effect...
2 good options, imo. rondo's not going to command max, and he's gone from overrated to underrated in a very short period of time. koufos's oafish appearance belies his effectiveness. he can play some.
Agreed. I would expect them to certainly see who is out there and available among the big names, but I also expect that they have a lot of scenarios beyond those guys. Koufos makes a lot of sense even if you draft one of the bigs because he gives you a solid, value guy whose skill set will fit nicely with the starters, and who will allow the rookie to develop at a more reasonable pace. Davis doesn't work as well with a rookie, because either you have to put the rookie into the starting unit, or put the undersized Davis there. He's much better off the bench. If the team drafts a wing or guard, Koufos and Davis are a great, economical pair (if Davis is cheap enough) to put with them. If you draft a guy like Russell, Koufos, Davis, and Green make a ton of sense, and fit within your cap space.
It is a nervous summer to be sure. People are going to get paid according to what the cap will be as opposed to what it is. We just have to pray we keep that pick. It will save us from having to do something...drastic. Rondo is not undervalued. I still think 10 million for him is way too much. Can you honestly tell me that since he became the starter, that Clarkson hasn't played at least as well (when taking all aspects of the game into account) as Rondo? And even if you want to argue Rondo is better, is the discrepancy between the two worth 8 million dollars a season more? Because that's what it'll cost to get him. And the above argument doesn't take into account the injury history of Rondo and his questionable personality. It really all boils down to that pick. If we keep it, and all we have is Kobe "Farewell Tour" Bryant, the pick, Randle and Clarkson, I'll still be happy to watch that team knowing they will be making strides and gelling together as a new core. The only way I take Rondo is if it's for 5-6 million a year on a two year deal. Fortunately, with the emergence of Clarkson, I think we offer Love a max deal (if we don't draft a sf), then Monroe a max deal (if we don't draft a big), then we look to Rondo. At least that's what I'm praying for.
OKC is a poor example to use. They traded Harden because if they paid both Harden and Ibaka, they would have been in repeater tax territory for multiple years. Milwaukee has no chance of being in that situation. They have to dish out those deals to reach the floor. They are in a situation to give all their players max (Not likely all will get it) and still be under the salary cap floor, not over the repeater tax. If the cap is 80 million in 2016/2017.... Giannis - 15 MCW - 15 Middleton - 15 Henson - 15 Parker - 5.3 Total - 65.3 million.........salary cap floor 72 million. And that's on the low end estimation of what the salary cap will be.
I'm not just talking about the taxes though, just the lump sum. These guys balked 20 million dollars ago, I'm not so sure they jump at an opportunity to pay more. Not all of them anyway. Some owners surely will, but I'm not sure all the owners will be so eager to hand out large contracts and start paying more money because of the cap. I think there might be small market teams that are willing to skate the cap floor or even stay below it. The floor is not hard just a slight penalty for being there. I think some teams would rather be near the floor and pay a small bonus to their players than be over It and paying an extra 20 million overall. Regardless though we've really digressed. My original point still remains: if we nail a big in the draft, we can afford to sit on an RFA wing and still fill out the rest of the roster. All we need is Okafor or Towns.
i think it's easy to pile on rondo right now. he switched teams to a totally different system, mid-season, and then they all got hurt. i don't think it's his fault that he/they haven't looked good. if he goes for 10 per, whoever gets him is going to be happy, imo. he can still play.
^^ perhaps some validation to the rumor that NY might take a pg in the draft, meaning towns or okafor drop to 3.
