2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

Helu and Reece - great complement to LTM.

 

Hello Helu... Raiders picking up players that can contribute but not necessarily household names.

 

Helu played in 13 games in 2014, posting .19 WPA, posting a team high EPA among RBs, and a .01 WPA/G, tied with Morris. His EPA/P of .19 was much better than Morris's negative number. This is likely because of Helu's contributions in the receiving game - where Morris does nothing. Helu was 32nd overall among RBs in WPA, while no Oakland player made the list (LTM didn't play enough). Helu was 6th best in Expected Points Added, behind LeVeon Bell, Anderson from Denver, Lynch, Bradshaw, and Jamaal Charles. Not a bad list.

Here's what I love about Helu - he's only 26, he has shown a skillset similar to Reece, averaging 4.4 yards on 255 rushes in four seasons, and grabbing 129 passes, including 99 over the past two seasons. He has scored 10 TDs. If he can block at all, he Rivera, and Reece are going to be dangerous.

 

Raiders O shaping up:
WR Jones/Streater/Holmes/Butler/Thompkins
OL Penn/Jackson/Hudson/Barnes/Howard
Backs Carr/LTM/Reece/Helu
TE Rivera/Smith

OFFENSIVE UPGRADES
OL was +0; now +3 with Hudson
B/TE was -1.5; still -1.5 (backups go from -3 to +2.5)
WR was +1; still +1
So, the offense has made an improvement to a positive rating.

I'm starting to get pumped about this team.

 

BTW, things people like to hear: Helu led all RBs with at least 40 carries last with with 3.4 yards PER RUSH AFTER CONTACT.


Skip to 2:47 if you want to go right to his NFL stuff.

 

Pro Football Talk's Positions of Need - with updates

Big Need:
MLB - Malcolm Smith - adequate addition

Needs:
WR
TE - Lee Smith - solid Blocking addition
C - Rodney Hudson - excellent addition
RG
LS

Backup Needs:
RT
QB - I happen to disagree; if McGloin is back, we're good, even without Schaub.
RB - Roy Helu - excellent addition
WR
DT
DE
FS

 

So, the Raiders have added Dan Williams, PFF's 6th ranked Defensive Interior FA at +11.5 rating; Pat Simm's rating was -3.4 by comparison. Williams was the 28th rated DT on Advanced Football Analytics, posting .29 win probability added, 18.6 expected points added, and 1.09 points per game added. No Raider was in the top 28. Seems like a nice addition.

Curtis Lofton is a bit of an enigma. He was the last rated LB FA according to PFF, but he was 22nd rated among all LBs last year in Win Probability Added at 1.24, better than all Oakland LBs. He was 30th in Expected Points Added at the position, again better than all Oakland LBs, and he was 33rd in Expected Points Added per Game. Sio Moore was 15th there. So at the very worst he's a guy who will bolster the group.

 

This dude hasn't been signed yet, FYI:
Raiders looking at Nate Allen, PFF's 11th rated Safety FA at +3.9. Oakland's departed Safeties - Young and Branch - were both at +0.9 last year. Allen was Philly's second best Safety statistically last year. He posted 51 tackles, 1 sack, and 4 INTs. He added .48 Win Probability, 24.5 expected points, and 1.63 expected points per game. His Tackle Rating was 2nd best among all Eagle DBs (9 of them). Those numbers would make him 2nd best among all Oakland Safeties, too - behind Woodson.

 

This is pretty good. I'm digging this FA period. It's nice to have money to spend.

 

Pro Football Talk's Positions of Need
Big Need:
MLB - Malcolm Smith - adequate addition, Lofton - adequate

Needs:
WR
TE - Lee Smith - solid Blocking addition
C - Rodney Hudson - excellent addition
RG
LS

Backup Needs:
RT
QB
RB - Roy Helu - excellent addition
WR
DT - Williams - adequate
DE - Williams allows Woodley to rush from outside - adequate?
FS

This defense...
DI Ellis/A. Smith (and Williams)
DE Tuck/Woodley
LB Mack/Moore/Lofton or M Smith (-3 to ~0)
CB Hayden/McGill/Carrie
S Woodson/Dowling

Defense is at +4.0 right now
Our depth at LB has gotten considerably better. It's looking like we're going trench players in Free Agency and we'll draft the athletes around them. Interesting approach.

 

Remaining Needs:
WR
RG
LS(?)

Backup Needs:
RT
QB(?)
WR


With WR appearing twice, I'm now wondering whether we'll go with White (WR from WVU) or Dante Fowler (LB from UF). I would complain about neither.

 

If Dan Williams is signed, I wonder if there's no Pot Roast in the menu? Looking at the numerical analysis...simply going from "-" to a "+" is good enough for me.

We're adding young, athletic LB's that can play in space and cover. Our backfield can be counted on for dump-offs, flares and screens. I still want a playmaking wide-out but...[mimicking Roger Goodell voice] with the fourth pick in the draft, the Oakland Raiders select [insert name here].

 

Woodley is out; I forgot, so updated:

DI Ellis/Williams
DE Tuck/A. Smith
LB Mack/Moore/Lofton or M Smith (-3 to ~0)
CB Hayden/McGill/Carrie
S Woodson/Dowling

I don't think so - unless Knighton realizes that his market is not what he thought it was. These are hard lessons for Knighton and DeMarco Murray, I think.

 

There are those that think Williams is a better option than Knighton... Just as good in stopping the run AND can put pressure on the QB. The latter quality is what is questioned about Pot Roast. Of course, some $$$ are saved too. I dig our corners...young and talented. They have to mature quickly in a pass happy AFC West and I have no doubt they will.

Del Rio's missive is blunt...establish the run and stop the run. The S&B was 28th against the run allowing 119 per game. No one of note [i.e. the "names"] have given us a serious look but it's cool as you said, we're taking in "now" fringe contributors then filling in potential studs. I haven't been this somewhat optimistic since the early 2000's. McKenzie has been judicious in his free agent signings and putting in some thought as to who they are.

 

Would love to add that Safety we were looking at - and we're still looking at Gresham at TE.

 

Nate Allen ex-Eagle...signed on. Below average defender by some accounts.

 

So this is now official. Allen was 28th of 87 Safeties last season at PFF, too.

Allen seems like a boom or bust player, but let me begin with the stability:

Allen has played at least 13 games in each of his five seasons, and he has missed a total of six games. He has started 69 games over the past five seasons, including 31 in the past two. That's great consistency; we should expect him to play 15 games this season.

He has also posted between 42 and 60 solo tackles per season, and his assists pushed that total to 48-82 per season. Over the past three seasons he has been between 51 and 60 solo tackles and 62-82 total. Consistent.

He has defended between 4 and 8 passes per season. Over the past two seasons it has been 5 and 7. Consistent.

Now the boom or bust. He was credited with allowing 5 TDs last season. I don't know the numbers over the seasons leading up to that. But he also picked off four passes last season, which is a nice number. It ranked him 8th last season. His 10 INTs in the past five years rank him 45th in the NFL during that span.

 

So right now the Raiders' D is looking like this:

Tuck/Ellis/Williams/Smith
Mack/Smith(Lofton?)/Moore
Hayden/McGill/Allen/Woodson/Carrie

Not bad. Defensive rating among starters: +4.5

The overall starter ratings have moved like this:

2014 Offense: -3.5
2015 Offense: +0.5
2014 Defense: +2.5
2015 Defense: +4.5
2014 Starters: -1.0
2015 Starters: +5.0

This includes bench players:
2014 Team: -16
2015 Team: -6