Given his mental makeup, yes. I am so damn sick of players that are mentally weak. It's a business. If you're traded, you're traded. Most NBA role players shuffle teams at least a few times during their career whether it's via trade or free agency. I can't think of too many modern role players (excluding SA players) who haven't left their original team. Lin is a role player, he doesn't have it in his DNA to be anything more. Starter on a garbage team, backup on a playoff team. I want players whose play doesn't fluctuate in Feb before/after the deadline. Grow up, put your big boy pants on and play the damn game. If you let your play speak for you, then you're putting yourself in the best position you can and whatever happens, happens. Like I said, this fool cost himself $5-7m a year, easy. His mistake. I don't want to be the team cutting him that next check. I'm ok with the 4th spot, but would feel much more comfortable in the 3rd spot. As long as we end up with a top 4 pick, we're getting something we desperately need. But at the same time, I'd like to increase our odds with the beer pong balls to wind up with a top 3 pick. With the 3rd pick, we get to pick instead of taking leftovers [I'm assuming Okafor and Towns go 1 and 2, then we could pick between Mudiay and Russell based on who we liked more].
It really is sickening and this morning it just hit me how much I dislike his approach and the way he's coming out now. Guys like Ellington, Clarkson, and Davis I'd love to keep around because they've been fighting all year. Ellington is a back-up in the league and I'm sure deep down he knows it, but dammit if he hasn't played his *** off for us all year. Davis might have proven he's capable of starting or close to it because of how well he's played here. Meanwhile Lin is out here pouting and complaining about being confused. Show some assertiveness! I'm sick of the kid. I don't want him back even in a reserve role. I'm with you. I'd love the 3rd pick. @Savory Griddles nailed it with the Russian Roulette comparison for the 4th spot, but still I"ll take it. More teams have jumped up in the lottery than fallen out at the 4th spot and we'll just have to trust the system. We're not professionals like the Sixers and Knicks, but I have faith that our struggle will be rewarded.
80% Chance of keeping it...And the statistics say we have an 83% chance. That's as close to the odds as you can get doing the sim ten times. Do that sim 10,000 times and we probably keep the pick around 82-84% of he time.
Yup. I know. I'm obsessed with the lottery and have looked back 15 years to see how many times the number 4 seed has lost the pick, how many times it's dropped down to 5 and how many times it has moved up. I'm mentally prepared for anything that transpires come lottery night.
Lose out? That's not happening. Should we? Absolutely. Nevertheless, I see 4-5 more wins out of this team; we'll probably top out at 21-22 wins...
Looking back is pointless, to be honest. Not saying I blame you, but statistics are what they are. Where the draft went in the past means absolutely nothing this season. It is still 83%.......That is of course assuming Silver and Stern don't f*** with the balls...which is possible no matter how often the NBA denies it. There have been just too many weird "coincidences" to think other wise. Ewing going to the Knicks. Lebron going to his hometown in Cleveland. A team that is owned by the league is bought and immediately gets the #1 pick in a year when a franchise superstar (Davis) is available. Cleveland getting the #1 pick twice in 3 years against all odds...and in the same summer their prodigal son is in free agency.
Going back isn't pointless, IMO. For instance, we're more likely to land at 5 than moving up and or losing our pick entirely. Either way, if you went back to me at the beginning of the season and told me we'd have a 83% chance to keep our pick, I'd be happy about that.
What I mean is it's pointless in that the statistics are what they are. It's an 83% chance. The 4th record could have drop out of the top 5 every year previous, or never at all. The 4th record could move up to #1 every year and we'd still have an 83% chance of losing it this season. Once we know what the odds are, everything that happened previous to this year is irrelevant...under the assumption that the lottery is on the up and up. That's statistics. Flipping a coin that lands on heads 10 times in a row does not increase the chances of it landing on tails the 11th time. It's still 50% that 11th time. Sorry. It's the mathzz.
It's worse than what you're saying. It'd actually be only 4 empty chambers. 1 bullet to 4 empty chambers = 1in5 chance, or our ~20% of losing the pick at 4th spot. I don't like that at all. I want 3rd very badly.
Don't forget that not only is 3rd more likely to keep the pick, but also more likely to move UP in the draft. This is why the Lakers should be in desperation mode to lose every single game at this point. With 19 games left every win as an enormous step in the wrong direction. Once the Lakers draft position is locked in then by all means, win games. Until then they need to tank like their lives depend on it.
No he's right. If we finish with the 4th worst record we end up with an 82.8% chance of keeping the pick. 1/6 bullets means 83% chance of survival.
Me dumb-dumb! I assumed he was just rounding up to 20% (1/5) as I never bothered to think 1/6 = 17%...exactly accurate.
There you go - 80% chance of keeping that pick. Better than 55% but man, I would have liked 96% a whole lot better.
It looks like Philly got this! Pau did not deliver for the Bulls in the clutch so far. Philly with the ball now, 15 secs left, tied game. Edit: OT. Edit 2: ...aaaaand.... Sixers collapse. Fortunately, Orlando is up by 8.
