DRAFT TALK Thread: Looking Like Lonzo

I could move from 2 to 4.

 

What would you take from the Suns in that deal? Simple as a future first? I don't know if that's worth it.

 

With our scouting department, I might take two seconds from them.

But trading from the 2 to the 4 and, say, a mid-1st would be a big win for us.

 

I know your stance on the talent level being pretty even from 2-5 (or maybe even 1-5), so I can respect that. I wouldn't personally go that route, but you may well turn out to be right as next season plays out. Again, I'm not all in on Ball, but I do see an it factor in his game and I would take him at 2 as opposed to trading down for Fox and another mid 1st rounder.

 

SCOFF: Scoring Efficiency (6+ is very good, 7+ is amazing)
PAFF: Passing Efficiency (3.5+ is very good, 4+ is amazing)
HUFF: Hustle Efficiency (3.5+ is very good, 4+ is amazing)
Capitals - positional efficiency (a summary of those stats, where 80+ is starter/they're being effective in their role, 100+ is exceptionally good)

All-Rookie Teams (Last season in college, most recent year in NBA)
KAT 6.1 SCOFF, 2.2 PAFF, 4.1 HUFF, 103 BIG
-NBA 6.8 SCOFF, 2.5 PAFF, 3.4 HUFF, 100 BIG
--Towns becomes an elite scorer, his hustle drops off, and his passing increases. He's a legit star in the NBA. My system liked him in college and in the NBA.

Okafor 6.5 SCOFF, 2.0 PAFF, 3.8 HUFF, 100 BIG
-NBA 6.1 SCOFF, 2.1 PAFF, 3.2 HUFF, 82 BIG
--Okafor drops in scoring and hustle, and he bumps up his passing a touch. He's an adequate starter in the NBA. My system liked him in college and says he's a starter in the NBA.

Porzingis 6.1 SCOFF, 1.5 PAFF*, 3.5 HUFF, 84 BIG
-NBA 6.1 SCOFF, 2.0 PAFF, 3.2 HUFF, 84 BIG
--Porzingis is a pretty similar player to what he was in Eurobasket. The assist numbers should be higher for Euro players once they come to the NBA, as his was, but his hustle drops off (like with many bigs). He's an adequate starter in the NBA. My system liked him a bit in college, and it projected better because of the passing dip.

Booker 5.9 SCOFF, 2.2 PAFF, 1.9 HUFF, 58 WING
-NBA 6.4 SCOFF, 2.9 PAFF, 2.0 HUFF, 74 WING
--Booker has become a very good scorer, has massively increased his passing ability, and has made himself a borderline starter in the NBA. My system didn't like him in college, and it says he's doing reasonably well in the NBA.

Jokic 6.3 SCOFF, 2.1 PAFF*, 3.3 HUFF, 87 BIG
-NBA 6.5 SCOFF, 3.7 PAFF, 3.5 HUFF, 107 BIG
--Jokic's ridiculous - scoring like a near elite scorer, PG passing stats, and good hustle even for a big man. His numbers are incredible. Look at the Euro2NBA bump in passing. My system liked him, and the passing bump suggested he'd be good in the NBA.

Now for the guys who were picked high but who didn't make the All-Rookie Team

Russell 5.7 SCOFF, 4.1 PAFF, 2.9 HUFF, 89 PG (80 WING)
-NBA 6.1 SCOFF, 3.6 PAFF, 2.4 HUFF, 81 PG
--He has improved as a scorer, and he has fallen off in terms of passing and hustle. These numbers are still starter quality, and there's an interesting tradeoff: he's a great passing/average scoring SG or an average passing, good scoring PG. My system liked him quite a bit in college and likes him in the NBA.

**Hezonja 5.4 SCOFF, 2.6 PAFF*, 2.4 HUFF, 57 WING
-5.0 SCOFF, 2.4 PAFF, 2.4 HUFF, 49 WING
--I loved Hezonja's shooting, but we may have seen about the extent of his abilities. Not a defender, so nothing to pick him up on that side of the court either. System did NOT like him, and we're seeing why.

WCS (FROSH) 5.3 SCOFF, 1.9 PAFF, 4.0 HUFF, 87 BIG
(JUN) 5.2 SCOFF, 1.9 PAFF, 3.9 HUFF, 85 BIG
-NBA 5.7 SCOFF, 2.3 PAFF, 3.2 HUFF, 78 BIG
--Yellow flag: Stein didnt' improve statistically after three years of college. In the NBA, he's a better scorer, a decent passer, but he's not getting the hustle points he used to. He's best suited to a sixth man role at present. Is there any reason to suspect that he'll improve? Is his defense good enough to merit a starting role? System liked him a bit in college *but suggested stagnation*, and it likes him a bit in the NBA (but don't expect growth).

**Mudiay 6.5 SCOFF, 3.8 PAFF, 3.0 HUFF, 94 PG (90 WING)
-NBA 5.6 SCOFF, 3.5 PAFF, 2.2 HUFF, 71 PG
--Mudiay has seen his stats take a hit across the board. He's best suited to a reduced role at this point in his career, but he's young and will presumably continue to grow. Or, the Japanese game doesn't translate so well to NBA success. System liked him in Japan *but probably an inflated amount* and says he's doing reasonably well in the NBA.

Johnson 6.0 SCOFF, 2.3 PAFF, 3.2 HUFF, 66 WING
-NBA 4.4 SCOFF, 2.6 PAFF, 2.6 HUFF, 45 WING
--Johnson's scoring nosedived this season, and his hustle was way down. He's a defensive player, mind you, and his advanced stats suggest he's making his $ doing that. System suggested he wasn't much of a contributor on offense, and that's been true.

 

I respect that, dog.

 

Some of the top prospects:

xFultz 6.6 SCOFF, 3.6 PAFF, 3.0 HUFF, 92 PG/91 WING
--If he can defend, I take him first and don't have any concerns. He's going to be good.

xBall 5.7 SCOFF, 4.1 PAFF, 2.9 HUFF, 89 PG/80 WING
--His passing will translate. His hustle will if he adds strength. His scoring probably won't. Way too high PPS for a PG. Questions about his defense make me bump him down. He's an obvious top 5 pick, but I don't take him in the top two.

xJ.Jackson 5.7 SCOFF, 2.9 PAFF, 3.5 HUFF, 77 WING
--If JJ's defense isn't amazing. I wait on him. Jackson or Ball? Tough question.

xFox 6.3 SCOFF, 3.5 PAFF, 2.5 HUFF, 83 PG/82 WING
--With his defense, he's an NBA starter posting 80+ by year two. I take him top four for sure.

xTatum 6.1 SCOFF, 2.4 PAFF, 3.0 HUFF, 68 WING/80 BIG
--I don't know Tatum's game, but if he's being compared to Granger and Houston, and he's not a defender, I don't take him in the top five.

xIsaac 5.9 SCOFF, 2.0 PAFF, 3.6 HUFF, 65 WING/88 BIG
--Isaac could be a very intriguing PF. Hard to see him at SF. He seems like a massive project, too, in the NBA, but my system likes him more than Tatum.

xD.Smith 6.1 SCOFF, 3.7 PAFF, 2.7 HUFF, 86 PG/83 WING
--Smith is in my top five, for sure. He has a slight advantage on Fox, his game translates nicely to the NBA. If I think he can defend at all, I take him top five. His NBA comparisons look more like offensive-minded PGs though.

xMonk 6.5 SCOFF, 2.5 PAFF, 2.2 HUFF, 65 PG/72 WING
--I'm not impressed, and I take him only if I need a ton of offense and don't care about defense or he suddenly learns how to defend. I bump him to the end of the lottery.

xMarkkanen 6.2 SCOFF, 1.6 PAFF, 3.0 HUFF, 76 BIG
--I don't draft Markkanen. If he can't defend, he's at absolute best case scenario Ryan Anderson, but I'm not sure that happens.

xZ.Collins 6.7 SCOFF, 1.5 PAFF, 3.9 HUFF, 103 BIG
--This is an intriguing dude. The best scoring efficiency of all these guys. The best hustle efficiency. The highest positional efficiency. And it's every bit as high as Towns's.

I rank these players this way:
Fultz
Collins
Ball
Fox
Smith
Jackson
Isaac
Tatum
Monk
Markkanen

Flame on!

 

For what it's worth, I wouldn't go JUST by that efficiency stat. I have all these ten players at a 90+ on my draft composite sheet. Think of that as a tier (or two).

 

All for a fleecing

Our 2nd for the 4th, a future first, and their 32nd(?) this year? Or maybe we could move some salary.

 

Now you're talking my language.

 

I screwed up on Russell's college numbers. I'll fix in a bit.