Official Whine, Moan, Complain Thread 19/20-CLOSED "WE CHAMPS!"

YAY GUYS!!! We got 3 wins to make it 24 wins for the season as apposed to 21, you know what time it is:

Out of the last 10 draft lotteries, we have seen 9 winners come into the top 3 from outside the 3 worst records for the season. With the second worst record we can take someone coming into the top 3 from below us in the standings. As the third worst record, we lose our pick unless we also win back into the lottery.

I'll be the first to admit a 56% chance to keep our pick as apposed to a 46% isn't a big difference, except 9 out of the last 10 drafts we would of lost our pick in this exact same position; and subsequently lost the 2019 first round pick too.

To me Weezy you are a very intelligent poster, who's thoughts I like to read, I'm surprised you don't see the wisdom of doing our best to improve our chances for multiple assets by sacraficing a few wins in the last fortnight of the season. Especially because trade assets are the thing that will get us back to the playoffs and contending the quickest.

 

I voted okay with either outcome in one of the polls. I like winning games though.

 

Well said. The last 3 paragraphs cut to the heart of the matter and this sentence beginning the first of those 3 describes what I was thinking after again watching tonight on time shift and then going to Game Time's last comments and seeing the continued arguments over and over from the "full Philly" contingent.

"Now I keep hearing that we should have lost these 3 games, yet not once have I heard a legitimate way for us to do that."

 

couple issues:

1. to truly evaluate the difference between 2nd and 3rd worst, you have to examine which teams have fallen out when a team lower than 3 has jumped. you're assuming it's ALWAYS the third worst record that drops. i highly doubt this. it would be a statistical anomaly in itself.

you seem to be thinking of spots 1-3 as if they're like spots 4-13, in which a jump from below necessitates your drop. since all of the top three are via lotto, this is not the case.

2. even if that were true (again, really don't think so), in truly random events, whatever has happened recently doesn't matter.

at the end of the day, it really is 56% versus 46%. the odds were never good. there's roughly a 50/50 chance that phx's shameless tanking leads to a non-top three pick, too.

 

Meh don't even care about the tank. Honestly I'd rather this team try and win as many games as basketball. I wanna see these young guys learn to win and what that feels like. Tanking just sends a bad message to the youngsters that it's okay to suck and be a bad basketball team and organization. The draft and lottery is a crap shoot anyway.

 

I buy your reason but never said its the end of the world. We saw same thing last season i.e. russell ending the yr with great performance and i dont recall I thought we had some big wins at the end of the season that gave us hope but here we are again another terrible season record wise. If you can honestly say these wins can and will lead to better days next season then ill buy it. My issue here is why now? Wheres this team earlier in the season when we were still in playoff picture? Wheres this team when we were losing by 49? But at this pt, doesnt matter now if they lose the pick its deserved, bad mgmt continues to haunt this team

 

I only started posting this season, and I think this is my first time I'm posting regarding the tank or in the WMC thread, so I wasn't clear on your stance. I haven't actually engaged in this topic with you or anyone on lakersball before, so it's not true that it's like talking to a wall. I understand everyone's frustrations and that it must be grinding on many people to be in this position for so many consecutive seasons, however in the day thread all I saw was you throwing dwight howard's face at people hahaha. Glad to know your full stance, and by and large I agree with it all.

As an example, now that we are pretty much locked in to 3, I hope we finish the season out with wins. I'm an optimist by nature, so to make it clear, I wasn't ranting and raving, maybe that was lost in translation over the internet, however, after each of the last 3 games I was a little frustrated that another season of losing was further damaged by some last minute wins. At this point, it's a double pick we are fighting for, 2017 and 2019, and I believe its fine to let out a little frustration in these situations. I know the difference between a 2nd and 3rd position isn't crazy, but looking at drafts since 2000, 3rd gets knocked out of the top 3, roughly 70% of the time, so it's not an ideal scenario for us to be in and I think we've probably lost those picks.

By the way, I made the joke about Metta at PG - LOL! Of course that's not a serious suggestion. I think Luke has been doing his best to tank while developing the young guys, constantly changing line ups, playing young guys extended minutes, bringing in cold players etc. If we wanted to go the whole way, we could have probably sat out a few of the young guys and played more offensive inept players. No this doesn't help them develop, but they've had 75 games to do that, it's not like we shut it down at the all star break.

Losing begets losing, however, trade assets beget trades. So I apologise for assuming you didn't think the same, I'm glad I got your full stance!

 

since you did the research (thanks, i'm lazy), what's the percentage on the 2nd worst team in that time frame?

although i still stand by the statistical truth that it's a 10% difference that has 50/50 as its midpoint (and the gambler's fallacy regarding the smaller sample size of recent history).

i'll be as bummed as you about losing those picks, but it happened in november, really, imo.

 

Roughly 56% for the 2nd. But its relatively a small sample size, like you said the stastisical truth is the 56% for 2nd or 46% for 3rd; and over time it would play out like that. So maybe a better way to look at it is the 3rd pick is owed some good fortunate to come closer to it's statisical truth.

In saying that, it was my hope we blew our chances at the pick in the first month. I was hoping we headed towards the 8th seed and 35+ wins for the season. But, we once again find ourselves as a bottom feeder however, and if I could have the 56% chance as apposed to the 46% - I'd take it.

 

yeah, i just see those odds and can't be moved. i'd care more about the tank if the lakers pick was top-5 protected (i was super pro-tank that year), because you can put a floor on your slide by tanking. phx has guaranteed the worst pick they can get is #5 now. that's an absolute certainty. the lakers' situation has none of that. if it did, i'd be mad they won a couple of the recent games, if that makes sense.

 

I agree with the idea but like i asked weezy post, where these guys during the 13gm losing streak or whatever that # was or when they lost by 49 to dallas? I wouldnt complain bout wins especially halfway through the season even if it meant we were guaranteed to lose the pick, so long as we didnt have to fitness the constant a** kicking

 

Well .... we haven't exactly gone up against juggler's knots in the last three lineups we faced out there but see your point.