don't like the kobe/young/lin breakdown. the stats could be easily explained by defensive attention. in other words, there's probably a reason two of those guys have a hard time getting open and the other one doesn't. this will bear itself out in shooting percentages as well.
They have a hard time getting open due to systematic flaws within the offense...Kobe struggles to score and is almost frequently contested; Nick, outside of last night is at the lowest point in his efficiency in his career; it's just not the stats. It also fits with what I'm watching on both sides of the ball.
'Now that we've covered defense, let's look at the offensive advanced stats. It doesn't look like too much has changed offensively for the better, even with Swaggy back for this entire stretch of games. Offensive rating When we last looked at them, the Lakers had an offensive rating of 104.4. Now 10 games later, that rating on the season has slid a bit to 103.8, falling to the 17th ranked offense in the league. It's not as big a fall as their improvement on defense over the ten game stretch, so the team overall should have gotten marginally better. Their effective field goal percentage has improved slightly from 46.9% to 47.4%, likely due to taking more threes, although they are still the 6th worst in the league. Over the last ten games, they've taken 20.7 threes a game, making 34.8% of them, versus averaging 18.4 on the season at a 32.6% rate. However, their true shooting percentage stayed mostly the same at 52%, sliding one spot to 7th worse in the league, as they're not getting the line as much. Their FT rate over the last ten games has been 27% versus 30.7% on the season. Even more worrying, their offensive rebound rate has gone way down from the start of the season. Over the last 10 games, their OREB% has been 22.5%, 6th worse in the league, versus the first 12 games where they were 4th best in the league at 29.1%. Maybe it's reversion to the mean, or maybe the bigs are just settling for hanging out too far from the basket. Their turnover ratio remains strong though, as they are still 4th in the league in hanging on to the ball. Long 2 point shooting Last time I said that they could be average on offense as long as they kept up their hot shooting from long 2 point range, but I wouldn't count on it continuing. So let's take a look at the shooting stats. Unfortunately, the Lakers are taking the same proportion of their shots from between 16 ft and the 3pt line, at 24.8% of total shots, still the second most in the league. They're now making 40.9% of those shots, down from 43.9% Season FG% on long 2s ten games ago vs now: Kobe 50.6% -> 47.1% Hill 32% -> 36.7% Boozer 31% -> 36.2% Ellington 80% -> 52.9% So while Hill and Boozer have improved their percentages, Kobe's gotten worse from this distance. Nick Young and Sacre are shooting over 40% from that distance, but the rest of the team is in the low 30s or below (Price at 23.8%). However, the lack of offensive rebounds seems to be the bigger problem in terms of the drop in offensive efficiencies. Last two games As we all know, the major change in the last two games have been moving Price and Davis into the starting lineup. While the defensive efficiency has not changed much from the rest of the recent 10 game stretch, the offensive efficiency for these two games has nosedived to 95.1 points per 100 possessions. The offensive rebound percentage for these two games was a measly 20.8%, despite having the team's two best rebounders starting together. Possibly, it may be because teams are able to pack the paint even more now. Fast break points in these two games have halved from their season average to only 6 FBPs a game. Yes two games is not a real sample size but watching the team, it's not hard to draw the conclusion that if there's not another change to the starting lineup (preferably a guard who can shoot, hint hint), this trend will continue. Stagnant offense: Watching the team also gives you the impression that the sets are stagnant and dependent on isolations. This comes through in the passing stats. On the year, the Lakers have the 3rd fewest passes per game, are second to last in secondary assists, and second to last in points created by assists. Another problem that eye test identifies is that the bigs generally suck at setting screens. The stats confirm this, as the Lakers are the worst team in terms of their Solid Screen % at 77.93%, which are the screens that either make contact with the defender or reroute them. They also have had the fewest percentage of open shots in the league, which is almost certainly due to both of the above two problems.' Got this from another site...thought it was interesting
'Ten more games have passed since our last advanced stat review. Let's revisit it, starting with the defense. If you've been following this thread, you'll know that the Lakers have finally switched up their pick and roll coverage to having the bigs zone up, starting from the Toronto game. Has there been any corresponding improvement? Defensive rating Yes, marginally. The Lakers' defensive rating is now 111.4, two points better per 100 possessions than the 113.4 rating ten games ago (NBA.com rating not Bballreference). Over the past six games since they started their more conservative defensive scheme, they've had a defensive rating of 105.0, still 11th worse in the league, but a significant improvement. Opponent shooting On the season, they've gotten slightly better at letting the opponent shoot long twos, with 14.5% of opponent shots for the season taken between 16ft and the three point line, up from 12.7% last time, and they are no longer dead last in this category. Over the past six games their opponents have taken 24.8 mid range shots per game, as opposed to 18.8 on the whole season, a product of the new defensive scheme. Their ranks on the season in preventing shots at the basket (25th) and from the three (25th) also improved a single spot each. Not fouling and limiting transition have also improved, as opponent FT/FGA ratio has fallen to 25.2% from 27.6%, while opponent fast break points have fallen to 15.2 from 17. So they are improving a bit on D, which means that may have a chance not to finish the season as the worst defensive team in NBA history. Individual defense Surprisingly, Nick Young is one of the teams best defenders, at least statistically. His guarded opponents shoot -11.8% worse against him than against the rest of the league. By comparison Kobe's opponents are +5.3%, Wes' +1.1%, Boozer's +3.2%, Hill +6.5%, Lin's +2.9%, Price's +6.0%, and Davis' +1.0%. Both Lin and Price are terrible at defending their opponents 3 point shooting, perrhaps because of the team's defensive philosophy. Lin's opponents are shooting +10.5% better from 3 than their average against him, while Price's opponents are shooting +13.8% better from 3! (For Kobe and Wes, it's +5.3%)' Again, found this on another site...interesting stuff.
PG (C) Lin 74 Price 58 Clarkson 57 WING (C-) Kobe 84 Clarkson 61 Young 59 Kelly 59 Ellington 49 Price 47 Johnson 45 BIG (B-) Hill 85 Davis 79 Boozer 72 Sacre 67 Johnson 55 Randle 21 Points Per Possession Consumed Kelly 1.31 Lin 1.24 Davis 1.23 Price 1.20 Johnson 1.16 Ellington 1.15 Clarkson 1.13 Hill 1.10 TEAM 1.09 Young 1.09 Boozer 1.07 Kobe 1.04 Sacre 1.00 Henry 0.85 Randle 0.40
So, someone pointed out yesterday that we started 1-9, but we're now 7-7 in our last 14. I wanted to look at a comparison of that start vs. where we are now. POINTGUARD 1. Lin 68 vs. Lin 74 2. Price 64 vs. Price 58 3. Clarkson 53 vs. Clarkson 57 -Individually, Lin is playing better ball than he was through 10 games. Price is down an equal amount, while Clarkson is up. Overall it's a +4, and I think it's pretty clear that Lin has been playing decent basketball overall. Yes, he's inconsistent, but he's inching up toward 80, which is starter value. WING 1. Kobe 84 vs. Kobe 84 2. Kelly 59+ vs. Clarkson 61 3. Clarkson 57 vs. Young 59 4. Price 51 vs. Kelly 59 5. Ellington 52 vs. Ellington 49 6. Henry 39+++ vs. Price 47 7. Johnson 38 vs. Johnson 45 --Pretty interesting. Young has been a huge lift, giving probably the second most (or maybe third most) minutes at the wing spot, and although 59 isn't great, it's better than basically everyone else but Kobe through 10 games. In fact only Ellington has regressed - and that's a small drop. BIG 1. Hill 95 vs. Hill 85 2. Davis 88 vs. Davis 79 3. Boozer 70 vs. Boozer 72 4. Sacre 70+ vs. Sacre 67 5. Kelly 68+++ vs. Johnson 55 6. Johnson 44 7. Randle 21 --It's tough to put this into perspective. I think that both Hill and Davis are able to start in the NBA, but I also think that both are significantly defensive-minded player, in particular Davis. This stat doesn't measure that aspect. Boozer has clearly found his role, and the Lakers are clearly missing Kelly on offense.
PG (C) Lin 73 Clarkson 59 Price 58 WING (C-) Kobe 84 Clarkson 62 Young 60 Kelly 59 Ellington 50 Price 47 Johnson 46 BIG (B-) Hill 85 Davis 78 Boozer 73 Sacre 66 Johnson 56 Randle 21
Not much in the way of changes. PG (C) Lin 73 Clarkson 59 Price 58 WING (C-) Kobe 83 Clarkson 62 Young 60 Kelly 59 Ellington 51 Price 49 Johnson 46 BIG (B-) Hill 85 Davis 80 Boozer 72 Sacre 65 Johnson 57 Randle 21
PG (C) Lin 74 Price 62 Clarkson 56 WING (C-) Kobe 83 Young 62 Clarkson 59 Kelly 59 Ellington 52 Price 52 Johnson 48 BIG (B) Hill 84 Davis 82 Boozer 73 Sacre 67 Johnson 57 Randle 21
PG (C) Lin 73 Price 62 Clarkson 56 WING (C-) Kobe 83 Young 61 Kelly 59 Clarkson 58 Price 53 Ellington 51 Johnson 48 BIG (B) Hill 83 Davis 83 Boozer 73 Sacre 67 Johnson 58 Randle 21 Not much movement.
I often post these stats for many more players. In fact, I think I have them posted for all players for a few years. I want to start looking at us vs. the top teams in the league here.
Dallas's Ratings: PG (B+) Rondo 87 Harris 71 Nelson 63 WING (C+) Ellis 80 Barea 77 Parsons 64 Jefferson 52 Aminu 48 BIG (A) Wright 96 Chandler 90 Nowiztki 70 Smith 80 Villanueva 76
Seeing Kobe above 6 seems pretty counter intuitive given how poorly he's been shooting all year. Were you shocked that he doesn't appear to be that inefficient?
If you remember what PJ said, it's the idea that getting off shots requires some skill and clearly some effort. If other guys shot that many times, they wouldn't hit that many. It takes energy and a toll on your body. So he's still able to get off those shots, but they are less efficient than they used to be. As a result... Kobe has been over 7 in the past, so over 6 is relatively inefficient for him. His inefficiency shows up in other measures, notably his points per possession, which is below the team average.
Yeah I remember PJ saying that and Paul Pierce of all people apparently said the same thing about Kobe as a compliment. But I guess I'm curious of what determines scoring efficiency that you can be inefficient at points per possession but still have a decent score. Just curious.
Scoring Efficiency is those two things - points per shot (not points per possession; that's a different measure) and points per minute. They are weighted together in a way that actually does reward players who shoot more. My passing stat rewards people who pass more. My hustle stat rewards people who hustle more. In all cases, even if by doing the good thing you do it a bit less well - because I want the state to roughly capture what we think is cool about a player. We want to see guys score a lot - and then only as an after thought do we want the player to do it at a high shooting %. It's not a perfect measure; it's just a measure
Updated after Mavs game. PG (C) Lin 74 Price 62 Clarkson 55 WING (C-) Kobe 83 Young 61 Kelly 59 Clarkson 58 Price 53 Ellington 53 Johnson 49 BIG (B) Davis 84 Hill 83 Boozer 74 Sacre 66 Johnson 59 Randle 21 -Davis claims the top spot for bigs. He has been rebounding like a beast.
