My prediction is that our offensive efficiency will go down as the season progress, and I don't see the defense improving very much from where they are now...top 5 pick here we come!!!
PG (C) Lin 74 Price 61 Clarkson 55 WING (C-) Kobe 85 Clarkson 60 Kelly 59 Young 57 Ellington 54 Price 50 Johnson 41 BIG (B) Hill 88 Davis 79 Sacre 69- Boozer 69 Johnson 52 Randle 21 Points Per Possession Consumed Kelly 1.31 Ellington 1.25 Lin 1.24 Price 1.22 Davis 1.17 Johnson 1.13 Clarkson 1.13 Hill 1.12 TEAM 1.08 Young 1.07 Kobe 1.05 Boozer 1.05 Sacre 0.97 Henry 0.85 Randle 0.40
I am going to run the individual players' defensive ratings. It takes time, and it's estimated, because I need counterpart offensive rebounds and steals, so it's hard to figure. At any rate, here's Kobe's counterpart rating: Scoring 5.9 Passing 3.1 Hustle 2.8 Offensive Rating: 73 (which is solid) But his counterpart's points per possession is 1.22, which is high. I could draw a lesson: Kobe's counterpart is able to exploit some lapses in his game and get easy scores, but aside from the lapses, Kobe is still solid.
BTW, I don't even know how that offense curve would look like if it wasn't for Swag coming off the bench. Well, actually, I do:
On that graph I was just going to say where is our defensive numbers. but of course it was at the bottom so I had a hard time seeing it.
Sixty-two percent of all shots are contested. Thirty-seven percent of those shots go in. Seventy-seven percent of Kobe Bryant's shots are contested, highest in the league. Fifty-two percent of Jarrett Jack's contested shots go in, highest in the league. Seventy-five percent of Danilo Gallinari's and Dion Waiters's shots are contested. Thirty-one percent of them go in. Zach Lowe from Grantland recently wrote that Kobe Bryant's play this season has become a sort of morbidly fascinating theatre. Defying everything that we have learned over the past decade, Kobe insists on throwing up an endless array of double-teamed, fadeaway, 20-foot jump shots. Expectedly, Kobe misses many of these shots. Due to the unparalleled volume with which he attempts these shots, some inevitably go in. When that happens, it feels like Arnold Schwarzenegger from Terminator 2 rising from the rubble despite missing several body parts. It may be entertaining to watch, albeit in a somewhat uncomfortable manner, but it's probably best for him to avoid those situations in the first place. Using Vantage Sports data, I'm going to visualize Kobe's "madness" by plotting how many contested shots he takes (hint, a lot) against how many contested shots he makes. I'm also going to compare his performance in these respective categories to other players' in order to identify who else takes a lot of contested shots and who makes more of them. The above graph plots players' frequency of contested shot attempts (Contest+ Frequency%) on the y-axis against their field goal percentage on those contested shots (Contest+ FG%) on the x-axis. Dashed average lines show the average performance of all players in these two statistical categories. Filters can be applied to view certain teams and specific players. DATA All data are from Vantage Sports and represent aggregate information from 2012 to 2014 (not including this season). Only players who have at least 100 contested shot attempts were included in the analysis. Because the data encompass multiple seasons, players might be associated with former teams instead of current teams. RESULTS As expected, Kobe led the league in Contest+ Frequency%, shooting 77 percent of his shots under duress. Close behind was Dirk Nowitzki (76 percent). Though, considering his height and length, a contested shot by the wily Nowitzki probably isn't that contested. Clocking in at 75 percent were noted chuckers Dion Waiters and O.J. Mayo as well as Danilo Gallinari. On the efficiency front, Kobe was above average in terms of making his contested shots. His Contest+ FG% was 41 percent, which was above the league average of 37 percent. Leading the league in Contest+ FG% was Jarrett Jack, who was an outlier at 52 percent. The next closest players were Gary neal and Nick Collison, who both shot 46 percent on their contested shot attempts. TAKEAWAYS While Kobe Bryant might be the poster child of bad shot attempts, the data indicate he was not the worst. Though his volume was highest, his efficiency was tolerable. Players like Dion Waiters and Danilo Gallinari, on the other hand, shot almost as many contested shots as Kobe, but did so at abysmal rates (both shooting 31 percent on those shots). It's also worth identifying players who shot contested shots very infrequently. Notable is Kyle Korver, who had the fourth lowest Contest+ Frequency% in the league at 49 percent. That he also had the best 3PFG% in the league last year is probably not a coincidence. He is very good at discerning between good shots and bad shots and, judging by his high volume of 3-point attempts, must also be very good at finding ways to manufacture open shots, despite defenses keying in on his long-range shooting. Also worth mentioning is Stephen Curry. Fifty-nine percent of his shot attempts were contested, below the league average of 62 percent. Even though Curry is the primary option on his team and draws the attention of opposing defenders, he is still able to create open spaces for himself and exercises good discretion with respect to his shot attempts. When his shots were contested, he still shot 40 percent, well above the league average. Of course, many of those shots are 3-pointers, further speaking to his dominance. http://www.vantagesports.com/#story/VGbG9CYAACQAKcK0/contested-shots-volume-and-efficiency
On the link, there is an interesting graph. I couldn't figure out how to post it here. If I find out how, I'll post with the original article.
82games is updated again, lets see where we are at after 21 games.... Carlos Snoozer PER - 16.1 Opponents PER - 22.8 Offensive rating On/Off - 108.9 / 109.3 Defensive rating On/Off - 122 / 111.5 Weasley Johnson PER - 10.3 Opponents PER - 15.6 Offensive rating On/Off - 109.1 / 109.1 Defensive rating On/Off - 120.7 / 109.7 Kobe Bryant PER - 19.7 Opponents PER - 17.6 Offensive rating On/Off - 108.8 / 110.1 Defensive rating On/Off - 120.3 / 107.7 Jeremy Lin PER - 14.3 Opponents PER - 23.0 Offensive rating On/Off - 107.7 / 111.6 Defensive rating On/Off - 120.7 / 110.9 Jordan Hill PER - 20.7 Opponents PER - 16.9 Offensive rating On/Off - 107.6 / 111.9 Defensive rating On/Off - 119.8 / 112.2 Ed Davis PER (C/PF) - 17.5 / 21.9 Opponents PER (C/PF) - 21.1 / 9.5 Offensive rating On/Off - 111.8 / 107.1 Defensive rating On/Off - 115.5 / 118.2 Wayne Ellington PER - 13.6 Opponents PER - 11.6 Offensive rating On/Off - 105.5 / 110.2 Defensive rating On/Off - 104.6 / 120.5 Ronnie Price PER - 10.8 Opponents PER - 23.1 Offensive rating On/Off - 111.4 / 107.7 Defensive Rating On/Off - 112 / 120.4 Nick Young PER - 14.7 Opponents PER - 7.5 Offensive rating On/Off - 107.9 / 109.5 Defensive Rating On/Off - 111.7 / 118.9 Robert Sacre PER - 15.2 Opponents PER - 20.7 Offensive rating On/Off - 113.5 / 107.8 Defensive rating On/Off - 103.9 / 121.1 Jordan Clarkson PER - 13.8 Opponents PER - 18.1 Offensive rating On/Off - 115 / 108.3 Defensive rating On/Off - 111.3 / 117.9 General impression - The changes to the starting unit were a long time coming. The old starting unit was/is/still terrible on defense. Interesting to note that the bench, for the most part, is better offensively and defensively vs the starters. Changes were due with Davis coming in at PF, where he's excelled, but Price is easily the worst player on the team and not deserving of garbage time, let alone starting. Individually Snoozer - Nothing has changed in my assessment of Snoozer. Davis needs to start, Kelly needs to come back and Snoozer needs to be gone. Weasley - He's improved lately, but he's definitely at best average on a good night and non-existent on a bad night. He's best suited in a backup role on a run/gun bench Kobe - Holding steady and better than expected. Interesting to note the offense is "better" with him off the court. I don't think that is completely true, but it should tell Byron that he doesn't need to run Kobe into the ground as we aren't significantly better with him on the court and not absurdly bad off Lin - He hasn't figured it out, just awful so far. Hill - Assessment hasn't changed Davis - Let's see what he can do as the starting PF, something the numbers show, he is better at Ellington - Play him more, he's a floor spacer, basically the only one we have that can stretch the defense. More Ellington, less Price and Kobe please. Price - I hope he is released before Dec.15th, he's no longer needed Young - Solid numbers so far Clarkson - More minutes please, get him some work now, so he can be a contributor next season with some solid playing time under his belt Sacre - Even though he is a black hole, he does make the defense better Overall - Hasn't changed, more Davis/Ellington, less Snoozer/Weasley, decrease Kobe's minutes, get Kelly back.
Ellington has for sure earned more PT. He's been so good on offense. I've said this before: he's everything Meeks was supposed to be. BTW, Swaggy's counterpart PER of <8 is one of the lowest I've ever seen.
Nick Young said that he was talking to Ellington. They both thought one of them would get that starting job.
Either one of them would have been good in the starting lineup. It shows their mentality, and I'm happy to have them both on this team. More minutes for Ellington!
I'd love to see more of Ellington. He's completely transformed from the kid who looked like a camp-cut.
77.93 Lakers Screening The Lakers are dead last this season in Solid Screen percentage at 77.93%. 0.39 21 Davis Lakers Scoring Ed Davis, Lakers forward, has a .39 Shot Distance Rating. The league mean is 10.06. 1.12 Lakers Scoring The Lakers score 1.12 Points per Shot. That's in the bottom 10 in the NBA.
Kobe's 1.05 Points per Shot makes him one of the most inefficient shooters on the Lakers. The Lakers' #2 option, Nick Young, isn't faring much better at 1.12 Points per Shot. Recently benched Jeremy Lin is actually having a better statistical season so far. Kobe Bryant is currently leading the league in scoring. So all's well with the Lake Show, right? Sitting at 6-16, the Lakers are mired in their worst start to a season in recent memory. And if the Lakers want to turn things around, they're going to need to stop leaning so heavily on the face of their franchise. The Lakers call plays for Kobe way more than anyone else on the team. According to Hollinger's usage statistics, 34 percent of the Lakers' plays go to Kobe while he's on the floor. That's the second highest mark in the NBA. It would be one thing if the Lakers were calling "24" time and time again while he is shooting the lights out each night, but he's not. Kobe is shooting only 39.41 percent this season. That's the lowest field goal percentage on the team among qualifying shooters and leads to his humble 1.05 Points per Shot. So should the Lakers look to their second favorite option, Nick Young? The Lakers call plays for the swaggy shooter from USC 23.1 percent of the time he's on the floor, placing him at 55th in the NBA. But Swaggy P hasn't fared much better, shooting only 40.5 percent from the field, leading to 1.12 Points per Shot. The problem is simple. Neither Kobe nor Young can get open or knock down open shots. Kobe shoots a 46.0 Open+ FG% and has an Open+ Freq. of only 20.41 percent. Young gets open slightly more, with a 24.81 percent Open+ Freq., but he shoots only marginally better with a 48.48 Open+ FG%. Looking at their movement numbers clears things up a bit. As Kobe gets older and continues to recover from two devastating injuries, he simply cannot move as well as he used to. Without the ball, Kobe has a pitiful 46.43 Cut Efficiency, meaning more often than not he's not getting open. Young does much better, with a 75.0 Cut Efficiency, but since the bulk of offensive looks go to Kobe and Young, opposing defenses can key in on those two players to shut them down. So where can the Lakers find the spark they need? How about recently benched guard Jeremy Lin? Although he's come under fire this season, Lin actually is contributing more with fewer chances. According to Hollinger's usage stats, Lin has only a 19.2 percent usage rate, the 132nd position in the league. However, Lin outpaces Kobe and Young in all of the offensive categories we've discussed. Every. Single. One. So far, Lin is shooting 45 percent from the field. He has an Open+ Freq. of 32.46 percent and knocks down 56.45 percent of his Open+ shots. He scores 1.21 Points per Shot. And although he may not move as well as Young, Lin still moves better without the ball than Kobe, with a 66.67 Cut Efficiency. It's time for the Lakers to get Lin off the bench and get him the ball. Kobe is obviously not "done" and can still contribute a lot on offense. In fact, Kobe's Assists+ per 100 Chances are 3rd among qualifying Lakers, behind Lin (of course) and backup point guard Ronny Price. Given that Kobe can't run the way he used to and is struggling to get open looks, the Lakers might want to try moving Kobe to point guard, so he can play to his facilitation strength. Then Kobe can either pass to Lin or Young at the two-guard, helping them score, or he can decide to take the ball and create for himself. This interesting new look could give opposing defenses a harder time matching up as the better cutters, Lin and Young, can do more without the ball. This could open up the floor more, breath new life into the Lakers' offense, and help add to LA's all-important win column.
PG (C) Lin 72 Price 60 Clarkson 57 WING (C-) Kobe 85 Clarkson 61 Kelly 59 Young 58 Ellington 53 Price 49 Johnson 43 BIG (B) Hill 87 Davis 79 Sacre 69 Boozer 68 Johnson 53 Randle 21
Through game vs. Spurs PG (C) Lin 73 Price 59 Clarkson 57 WING (C) Kobe 85 Clarkson 61 Young 60 Kelly 59 Ellington 51 Price 48 Johnson 43 BIG (B) Hill 87 Davis 80 Boozer 69 Sacre 68 Johnson 53 Randle 21
