Kobe Bryant Discussion: Mamba Out!

I don't think anyone disagrees.

This is a coarse-grained approach that has the virtue of simplicity (digging through the numbers is a pain), but this simplicity comes at the expense of accuracy. It does depend upon who was in the lineup with him. For instance, if Ed Davis is MORE effective with Kobe on the floor in the 4th, that data needs to be part of the analysis.

This is simply a stipulation, and you haven't ruled out the possibility that some people play better with Kobe - and it's lineups rather than sets driving the bad-looking data.

Spoiler

The following stats detail the Lakers' Closing Lineup Stats (From Quarters 1-3) and (From the 4th Quarter)



The Question of "How Much Is Kobe Shooting Before The 4th Quarter?"

Spoiler

There are a lot of detractors saying that Kobe shoots too much in the course of a game. Some people say that Kobe shoots at the correct rate through quarters 1-3, but then shoots too much in the 4th. Which statement is more accurate, and how what do the stats support? What is the percentage of shots Kobe really shoots?

Factoring the Lin/Kobe/Johnson/Boozer/Hill lineup, if we look at these 5 players' Total FGA through 3 Quarters, Kobe ends up taking 272 out of the 749 shots available. That equates to 36.3% of the team's shots.

Factoring the Lin/Kobe/Young/Johnson/Hill lineup, if we look at these 5 players' Total FGA through 3 Quarters, Kobe ends up taking 272 out of the 647 shots available. That equates to 42.0% of the team's shots (The reason for such an increase is because Boozer was a CLEAR 2nd OPTION on offense for the first 10 games or so).

Don't the numbers support the suggestion that his legs are tired? If he's shooting so much - roughly 90% through 3 as he is in the 4th, isn't fatigue a strong candidate to account for the 30% lower FG%? (30% relative to the 1-3 Q shooting %, that is,)

This is the piece I'll most strongly disagree with; we surely cannot deduce your conclusion from the data. In fact, it looks like whatever is accounting for his overall low FG% is the most likely candidate in favor of his 4th Q shooting woes, and a secondary factor is leg fatigue.

Spoiler

All of these things considered, from the start of the 1st to the end of the 3rd, Kobe should not be shooting so many of the teams' shots (because of his FG% and shot selection).

The Question of "How Much Is Kobe Shooting In The 4th Quarter?"

If Kobe is already shooting a huge rate of the team's shots through 3 quarters, does he actually end up shooting EVEN MORE SHOTS in the 4th? Or does he shoot the same high rate, but it only becomes more noticeable because its crunch time and every play is scrutinized more? If Kobe does shoot more than he does for the first 3 quarters of the game, is he more efficient? Even if Kobe is not efficient, is he the team's best option?

Factoring the Lin/Kobe/Johnson/Boozer/Hill lineup, if we look at these 5 players' Total FGA in the 4th Quarter, Kobe ends up taking 76 out of the 163 shots available. That equates to 46.6% of the team's shots.

Factoring the Lin/Kobe/Young/Johnson/Hill lineup, if we look at these 5 players' Total FGA in the 4th Quarter, Kobe ends up taking 76 out of the 163 shots available. That equates to 46.6% of the team's shots.

Here, we can see that regardless of Boozer or Young replacing each other in the closing lineup, Kobe shoots at the EXTREMELY HIGH rate of 46.6% of the team's shots.

Well, direct correlation, yes, but also direct correlation with "total minutes played."

Good, so let's see numbers on non-iso plays. After all, we need a contrast class if we're going to make causal claims.

Agreed that we should play differently, but my conclusions aren't based on hard data here. I say "what have we got to lose" because we're not closing games, and I note that Kobe's assist rate is WAY down in crunch time. I think he has had two assists in the clutch all season. I think the following claims are plausible:

1. Kobe still has some rust.
2. Kobe's legs tire late in games.
3. We can probably do something better than Kobe Iso
4. Most of our players fold in the clutch

 

Per Mike Trudell's Twitter:
Byron Scott saying that he's using Kobe as a floor spacer when Nick Young is in the game at times, reducing Kobe's overall minutes to 35 and also reducing the wear and tear of those minutes, so it feels like 28 per game for Kobe.

 

Looked pretty much accurate last game, but he was still inconsistent late.

 

Using Kobe as a floor spacer? Um...if that's his role when Nick Young is in, Scott might as well just bench him and play Ellington, who's a career 38.4 3P% shooter. Even if you aren't initiating the offense, you still have to run up and down the floor, jump, fight for rebounds, react on defense, etc.

 

Kobe does seriously affect the spacing; even in the 4th, when he was missing shots, defense was collapsing on him like crazy. He had open teammates. Maybe that's what Byron means. Kobe's a better passer than Ellington fa sho.

 

^ I mean, if Kobe didn't pass to Swaggy, he's not going to pass to Ellington. Still, I'm in favor of Ellington getting significantly more burn.

 

He did it effectively in the first half last game.

 

30k Points / 6k assists.

Only one. Ever.

 

First player with 30kpts/6k asts. Thats pretty damn impressive.

 

"It means I pass more than people say"