Kobe Bryant Discussion: Mamba Out!

You must've been saying WTF! That was one of the ugliest quarters of basketball I've seen. Both teams totally sucked.

 

Yeah I think you got it right, had the game on in the background and wasn't paying enough attention.

 

https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/8B...p4?versionId=oY_49UgH6YHbYro0gWCUJ42qh6IqbcTK

 

So far, Byron sure does talk a lot...

 

14 games into the season and his legs are already leaving him. Great job Byron. Kobe can only give 28-30 solid minutes of solid basketball right now.

 

Believe it when I see it. If Kobe's shots are dropping he'll never pull him out because he'll go cold. If they're not he won't sit him because it'll likely be late in the 4th quarter.

 

Same ole...Kobe iso on too many plays down the stretch, unable to close a tight game. He has been like 1 for 5 or 1 for 6 in the last 5 minutes of games 90% of the time. At least last night some others took (and missed) shots down the stretch too. But I am sick of seeing the same isolation plays with kobe backing down guys because he can't explode past many any more and missing 3 point shots over and over. Ball movement please. And you see the frustration on the guys, like Nick, for not being involved. losing is one thing. But this selfish brand of ball is killing me,

 

As much as I hate to say it, Kobe definitely needs to start giving up some of the shots down the stretch. I disagree with part of your post, I don't think ball movement is the answer because guys like Lin & Wes have been pretty bad to close out games. I think the solution is sharing the closing duties with Nick Young. He was our go-to guy in clutch situations last season & did a good job. Such a good job sometimes that it probably cost us a position or 2 in the draft.

Kobe's just playing too many minutes carrying too much of the load, his legs are gone by the end of games. He doesn't have the explosion to create space against defenders that know exactly what's coming.. If Swag is hitting big shots too that'll force the defense to pay more attention to him & create easier opportunities for Kobe.

 

Kobe deferred a lot last night even at crucial points. Nobody could hit anything. But he gave it up as he should to make these guys more confident. He seems to get out of rhythm easily and then can't hit anything himself. He totally bricked shots anyone should knock down. Having said that, I don't know what the hell that overhanded chuck towards the rim is supposed to be... A hook? Floater? Terrible looking and he did it 2-3 times.

 

He's 12 for 35 in the last 5 minutes of the 4th/OT with the score within + or - 5 ... Rest of the team is 8 for 24 ... Young 0 for 5 , Lin 2 for 7 , Wes 3 for 4 , Hill 2 for 6....

 

... i always knew Wes is clutch

 

is there any information on when the Kobe documentry gonna air?

 

Using stats in this way overlooks too many factors.

The real issue here, isn't about "who should shoot the ball in crunch time? Kobe or the rest of the team?" but rather is about the fact that the Lakers start running an ineffective HEAVY Kobe-Iso system in 4th quarters.

Let's look at more stats in context.

As we begin, (since we're talking about crunch-time stats) let's look at the lineup(s) that have closed out games for the Lakers:

Before Nick Young's return: The closing lineup was:

1. Lin
2. Kobe
3. Johnson
4. Boozer
5. Hill

After Young's return: The closing lineup has been:

1. Lin
2. Kobe
3. Young
4. Johnson
5. Hill

Let's put aside the rest of the team's 4th quarter stats as we look deeper into the Lakers 4th quarter problems*:

*For those wondering: We are putting the rest of the team's 4th Quarter stats aside, because by including the rest of the team's stats - the bench's overall FG% would make the Lakers closing unit look a lot more competent than it actually is. Why? Because Ed Davis shoots 72% (18 for 25) in the 4th - thereby skewing the overall numbers. However, because Davis and the rest of the team rarely plays in crunch time (last 6 minutes), they should not be included when evaluating the Lakers' closing lineups.

The following stats detail the Lakers' Closing Lineup Stats (From Quarters 1-3) and (From the 4th Quarter)



The Question of "How Much Is Kobe Shooting Before The 4th Quarter?"

There are a lot of detractors saying that Kobe shoots too much in the course of a game. Some people say that Kobe shoots at the correct rate through quarters 1-3, but then shoots too much in the 4th. Which statement is more accurate, and how what do the stats support? What is the percentage of shots Kobe really shoots?

Factoring the Lin/Kobe/Johnson/Boozer/Hill lineup, if we look at these 5 players' Total FGA through 3 Quarters, Kobe ends up taking 272 out of the 749 shots available. That equates to 36.3% of the team's shots.

Factoring the Lin/Kobe/Young/Johnson/Hill lineup, if we look at these 5 players' Total FGA through 3 Quarters, Kobe ends up taking 272 out of the 647 shots available. That equates to 42.0% of the team's shots (The reason for such an increase is because Boozer was a CLEAR 2nd OPTION on offense for the first 10 games or so).

From Kobe's Team Portion% numbers of 36.3% and 42%, we can see that Kobe is shooting like a mad-man. The fact that he's shooting at 39.7% through the first 3 quarters is alarming too. The "HIS LEGS WERE TIRED," argument here is weak, since these Kobe FGA are attempted through sections of the game where he should be WELL RESTED - meaning that the shots come from when he plays in the 1st quarter (Fresh), and the 3rd quarter (Long break after Half-time).

This leads us then to question why Kobe is shooting so poorly, even though he should be well rested for the majority of his playing time. The most obvious theories/answers to this, is that Kobe is either is taking bad shots, or he simply is not a good offensive player anymore. The latter option, of course, is obviously not true. Kobe may be far from his prime, but HIS OFFENSIVE SKILLS are still tremendous. If we factor out that last option then, we can deduce that Kobe is just clearly taking poor shots (as most of our eye-tests obviously prove).

All of these things considered, from the start of the 1st to the end of the 3rd, Kobe should not be shooting so many of the teams' shots (because of his FG% and shot selection).

The Question of "How Much Is Kobe Shooting In The 4th Quarter?"

If Kobe is already shooting a huge rate of the team's shots through 3 quarters, does he actually end up shooting EVEN MORE SHOTS in the 4th? Or does he shoot the same high rate, but it only becomes more noticeable because its crunch time and every play is scrutinized more? If Kobe does shoot more than he does for the first 3 quarters of the game, is he more efficient? Even if Kobe is not efficient, is he the team's best option?

Factoring the Lin/Kobe/Johnson/Boozer/Hill lineup, if we look at these 5 players' Total FGA in the 4th Quarter, Kobe ends up taking 76 out of the 163 shots available. That equates to 46.6% of the team's shots.

Factoring the Lin/Kobe/Young/Johnson/Hill lineup, if we look at these 5 players' Total FGA in the 4th Quarter, Kobe ends up taking 76 out of the 163 shots available. That equates to 46.6% of the team's shots.

Here, we can see that regardless of Boozer or Young replacing each other in the closing lineup, Kobe shoots at the EXTREMELY HIGH rate of 46.6% of the team's shots.

Remember that through the first 3 quarters, Kobe's % of team shots taken in the Boozer lineup's rate was 36.3%, and in the Young lineup, Kobe's rate was 42.0% - so yes, in the 4th quarter, Kobe shoots 10% more with Boozer in the closing lineup, and Kobe shoots 4.6% more with Young in the closing lineup WHILE SHOOTING 31 PERCENT FROM THE FIELD. (The staggering difference between the Boozer-Young closing lineup differences may be due to the fact that Kobe - for the most part - has gotten better at letting the team get their shots late in the game since Young has come back. (Kobe was REALLY bad at this at the beginning of the season). The last game was Kobe reverting back to this poor style of play though.

The fact that Kobe SHOOTS MORE, and then his SHOOTING % FALLS 8 POINTS, is a direct correlation that he is TAKING EVEN MORE BAD SHOTS in the 4th quarter. We all see this when watching the game, but the numbers are damning, when taken into context.

For those who believe that EVEN THOUGH KOBE IS SHOOTING 31% IN THE 4TH, HE IS WHERE THE OFFENSE SHOULD BE RUN THROUGH, these numbers say the opposite - since most of Kobe's touches in the 4th are ISOLATION PLAYS.

"Well, who's gonna take the shots if not Kobe then?!"

The answer to that? I DON'T KNOW WHO IS GONNA TAKE THE FINAL SHOT DURING A POSSESSION, AND THAT'S THE WAY IT SHOULD BE. PLAY TEAM BALL - TAKE THE BEST SHOT. Kobe Isolation clearly doesn't work, so why try it anymore?

"Yeah, but Lin is shooting 25% in the 4th, Swaggy-P is shooting 30%, Wes shoots 41% but we all know he sucks and can't create. Boozer? Can't play him because of his D. Hill? He can only shoot open shots and clean up. KOBE HAS TO SHOOT THE BALL EVEN IF HE'S SHOOTING 31%."

If you look at the stats of the closing lineup during the first 3 quarters (AKA when the ENTIRE TEAM actually runs Byron's horrible sets) they are VASTLY more efficient. The closing lineup's TOTAL FG% during the first 3 quarters when they play "team ball" is 44.2%. The closing lineup's TOTAL FG% during the last quarter where KOBE ATTEMPTS ALMOST HALF THE TEAM'S SHOTS is 36% (an 8.2% DROPOFF RATE!!!) - SO THE SOLUTION IS SIMPLE. STOP RUNNING KOBE ISO PLAYS IN THE 4th QUARTER AND JUST RUN THE NORMAL OFFENSE. This does not mean Kobe shouldn't shoot at all, or something ridiculous like that - it just means that all the shots should come in the natural flow of the offense. The Lakers are actually not a horrible team when they play with such a philosophy.