Official 2016 Free Agency Thread

I think that Russell has all the tools you could ever want. Good three point shot, fearless, great vision and passing abilities, good defensive potential, solid rebounder, competitive mindset, can lead by example. He just had one of the best rookie seasons in Lakers history.

 

I think you guys underestimate Westbrook's confidence in himself. I'm not saying he comes here, but if you think winning only 30 games is enough to deter him from coming to the Lakers if that's where he wants to be, I might disagree. Westbrook has the Kobe mentality, he honestly would probably think just him alone joining us would take us to 50 wins because he's that good, that's his confidence. I do not trade for him though, I do not waste assets we suffered to get and make the team worse and watch him walk because of it. If he wants to come here he can do so as a free agent to a much better team. Besides, OKC can get way better offers for Westbrook than Russell and Randle. They can get better offers than Russell, Randle AND Ingram, this is a top 5 player.

 

I don't think they'd get nearly as great as trade Weezy. Two #2 picks and a #7 pick who has averaged a double double already in the NBA? The Lakers CAN beat almost any offer by trading Russell and Ingram, but would they? I dont think so.

I respect the position of waiting though. He almost assuredly picks another team that's more competitive and still in a big market like Miami, NY, or Boston though. Heck the Clippers could get at him better than we'll be able to.

 

As I see it, there are two ways to try to get Russell Westbrook on this team. We either trade for him and hope to retain him or we try to persuade him to join us. I think we should opt for the latter strategy. Here’s why:

TRADE FOR HIM
If we try to trade for Russ, we have to deal with a few obstacles: first, we don’t have picks to help get the job done; second, we don’t have lots of contracts to get the job done. Maybe both teams can stay under cap, so the second one won’t be a problem. The first means that we have to include lots of talent already on our team. So, we probably have to give up at least two of our young guys. Some of you want that to include DA. I don’t think I want to give up DA and any one of the other three. Because after we trade DA and some other young guy, we land Russ. How many games do we win with Russ?

Westbrook/Clarkson/Deng/Randle/Mozgov
Westbrook/Ingram/Deng/Randle/Mozgov
Westbrook/Clarkson/Ingram/Deng/Mozgov

Russell was good for 14.0 Win Shares last season, and his 8.3 VORP was amazing. With Deng and Mozgov, maybe we add an additional 10 wins. That pushes us up to 41 wins and gives us a shot at a playoff spot, even if the remaining young guys don't improve (which is unlikely). So, the season ends and we ask Russell to re-sign with this young team that barely made the playoffs. Other teams offer him something. If even one team beats us, Westbrook leaves, and we've lost our best player and two of our best prospects. We have almost no picks coming over the next few years, so we're behind where we are right now - bad team, depleted of young talent. Why would Westbrook return? And under what conditions? If we overachieve or if those two young guys really improve. So, does he stay? Probably not.

PERSUADE HIM
The wooing approach means that we roll with the team we have now, or we add a veteran or two on one-year (player option) deals. We could improve enough to give us a shot at the playoffs, but only if we sign some awesome talent or our young guns improve significantly. Then at the end of the season, we ask whether Westbrook would come here. In this scenario, we don't need two of two young players to improve significantly; we only need like two out of four to do it. And if we sneak into the playoffs now, Russ sees that the talent is pretty good, he sees that even if Deng and Mozgov are old, the rest of the team is young and promising. And he thinks that perhaps there is enough to make a strong push for a higher seed in 2017-18. And then if the players continue to improve, he thinks that he might have a shot in LA. And when someone sees a roster of:
Westbrook/Russell/Ingram/Randle/Mozgov with a bench of Clarkson/Deng/Nance/Zubac, and some ring chaser, maybe he's enticed. Probably not.

In the first scenario, what have we earned? One trip to the playoffs. What have we lost? Likely our future.
In the second scenario, what have we earned? Probably at least fifteen to twenty more wins, more experience, and a clearer sense of which of our four young guys are keepers. What have we lost? Likely nothing.

 

Gasol signing makes West redundant. Aldridge is already there... Would not surprise me to see Duncan come back.

 

You don't think the challenge of bringing the Lakers back to glory would mean anything to him? LA kid, went to UCLA, is the closest thing we now have to Kobe as far as mentality. This isn't Derozan wher he's an LA kid but clearly doesn't want the pressure, I feel like Westbrook would say bring it on. He leaves OKC for us and we immediately switch positions with them if not become better than they were in this upcoming season, no matter our previous win count, because he's that good.

 

There's just no way I'm counting on that. We couldn't even get a meeting with Hassan Whiteside, let alone the Top 5 player in Russell Westbrook. There's every chance he makes a strong MVP bid this upcoming season in OKC. I don't think any of us could rationally argue that we've got a shot at Russell after 3 years of disappointment. Sure he could be the one who wants that challenge, but despite his history there's absolutely no chance I'm counting on that and there's no chance I'm counting on Mitch and Jim to close that deal either.

I think if you trade for him there's a 20% chance he stays (without any other moves) and if you try to sign him in FA there's a 3% he comes here.

Now if the Lakers are a .500 team and we're fighting for the playoffs, the kind of astronomical growth that we can't predict right now, then maybe there's a shot to get him. Other than that? No way. There's just no way I'm counting on nostalgia this time around. I think it's far more likely he passes and goes to greener pastures.

 

I think the financial side has a lot to do with why he didn't take that extension. It's the difference between 53 million and 153 million (if he stays in OKC).

 

I don't think it's a good sign he's leaving, it's a good sign he's exploring FA. Once he makes it to FA, if he's still at OKC, then there's a decent chance he leaves. He could also decide to stay and take the money and be the greatest Thunder player ever. Win a couple MVPs and maybe a title if something weird happens.

I haven't decided yet if Durant going to the Warriors hurts or helps our chances in FA. Does he just give up? If he gives up, he could come here. If he still pushes, he will go the Clippers or the Heat or the C Bags.

 

If were Lakers FO I think I'd be willing to trade Russell and Randle or Clarkson and Randle, but that's it. No way I give up Ingram. He's going to be a star. I'd rather sit tight and just try to get Westbrook in Free Agency but if the vibe is that OKC is going to move him and we'll lose out on him, then I'd trade for him. Again, Russell I'd be willing to let go. It would take Randle too I'm sure, who I don't want to give up but at least we'd have Nance and Deng. Ingram is a no go.