So... Draft Prospects?

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by ShowTime_IR, Nov 21, 2015.

  1. Chillbongo

    Chillbongo - Lakers 6th Man -

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    I'm not a big fan of Okafor or anything but this just isn't true. Okafor is already an elite low-post scorer. He's also extremely mobile for a big man and can put the ball on the floor. Defensively I'd say Okafor and Clarkson are equally bad. Right now I feel like Clarkson's peak is 6th man on a contending team. Okafor's might be a starter on a contending team.

    I'd like Okafor but him and Julius as our front line spells for disastrous defense. Can't do it for that reason alone.
     
  2. Chillbongo

    Chillbongo - Lakers 6th Man -

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    I think he's currently the most advanced and most "NBA ready" for lack of a better word. But best prospect? I base that on tools and potential. D'Angelo's shooting, IQ, crafty handles, passing ability and size for a point guard make his ceiling really high.

    Randle's ball handling, speed, physicality, rebounding ability and potential to finish around the basket make his ceiling high as well.

    Clarkson while really good, has no specific tools that make me think he has a higher ceiling than the other two. Now he could break out like a Klay Thompson or Monta Ellis if he gets really good at either shooting or dribble driving, but as of today I still see higher potential in the other two.
     
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  3. tada

    tada - Lakers All Star -

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    JC's got an elite work ethic. I'd take that over Okafor's elite post game.

    Well if you consider JC a point guard, he's the same size as D'Angelo. He has a significant advantage in athleticism and speed. I don't think D'Angelo's a better shooter at this stage either.

    I don't want to judge who's better, but I think Clarkson is being seriously underappreciated these days. As mentioned earlier, other teams value him much higher I think.
     
  4. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    I thought the Okafor discussion ended last year when the Lakers worked him out twice and still passed on him. The word was that they had Russell and Porzingis over Okafor. If we wanted him, we would have drafted him. Obviously, we didn't go in that direction.

    Ingram/Simmons both have the ability to fit what we want to do in the short and long-term; both could be special. I'm excited for either guy and look forward to one of them in the purple and gold.
     
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  5. Lakers2015

    Lakers2015 - Lakers Starter -

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    Sure it is. Okafor is Al Jefferson with even worse defense and he's nowhere near the rebounder Al is. I never got the hype. Dude can score in the post so what? Whatever he scores he'll give away too. His rebounding is pathetic for a supposed big man as well. Look at his usage numbers so he should be scoring with how much he has the rock. Clarkson at least gives you buckets, can play make, be a primary ball handler, but also play off the ball.
     
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  6. lakerfan2

    lakerfan2 - Lakers All Star -

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    Wouldn't Noel be the target here? Wouldn't he make more sense for the makeup and direction of this team?
     
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  7. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    yes, but he's not worth the #2 pick or clarkson. or randle. or russell.
     
  8. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Noel is a power forward that only has center skills. He's too thin to be a full time center and he has no ability to shoot to space the floor. He'd be a good bench big man for us, but he's not nearly as good as any of our young players. To be fair to the young man, I'm sure playing in Philadelphia has stunted his growth, but that doesn't really matter. He's not worth any of our youth nor the pick. A future pick maybe, but nothing the Sixers would want.
     
  9. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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  10. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I'll post this here. I did a look at the last five seasons' worth of data, looking at what players in their first through fifth seasons did, just in terms of Win Shares:

    YEAR ONE
    Mean: 0.8 Win Shares
    Median: 0.1 Win Shares
    Mode: -0.1 Win Shares

    YEAR TWO
    Mean: 1.7 Win Shares
    Median: 0.9 Win Shares
    Mode: 0.15 Win Shares

    YEAR THREE
    Mean: 2.6 Win Shares
    Median: 1.8 Win Shares
    Mode: 0 Win Shares

    YEAR FOUR
    Mean: 3.2 Win Shares
    Median: 2.4 Win Shares
    Mode: 0.3 Win Shares

    YEAR FIVE
    Mean: 3.6 Win Shares
    Median: 2.85 Win Shares
    Mode: 1.7 Win Shares

    Graphic Representation

    YEAR ONE
    xxxxxxxx
    x
    -

    YEAR TWO
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    xxxxxxxxx
    x

    YEAR THREE
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    x

    YEAR FOUR
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    xxx

    YEAR FIVE
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    Doesn't separate by draft position, but it's worth seeing a typical player development, in today's NBA climate. Should give us some hope for our young players. There is a big jump each year, especially in terms of median performance.
     
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  11. tada

    tada - Lakers All Star -

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    That's awesome @trodgers

    Does that mean we should expect 5 times that amount if our kids (DLO, JC, Julius, Nance and Ingram) develop at a typical rate?
     
  12. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    We should have expected roughly 5.8 WS (mean) from our three rookies and two second-year players. We got 5.6. So if things stay roughly as they are, we are on pace for 10.5 WS from those players. Remember that I haven't controlled for draft position. I'd imagine that IN GENERAL higher picks pay off greater, so I wouldn't say five times for next season. Nearly twice for next season, and about triple by the next season.
     
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  13. YoungThundercat

    YoungThundercat - Rookie -

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    So, just for the sole purpose of creating conversation...what if I told you that with all the Okafor talk, you're looking in the wrong crowded frontcourt?

    Manifest Destiny...go west, and a little up in altitude, to Denver. Why not call the Nugs and look at #2 for Nikola Jokic?

    I would assume they are high on him (as Philly is on Okafor), but everybody had a price. I don't think they'd ask for anything more than what Philly would ask for Okafor.

    Jokic is 21 years old, 6'10 and mired in a timeshare with Jusuf Nurkic, (King) Joffrey Lauvergne and Manimal for frontcourt minutes (not also including Darrell Arthur and Gallo when they go small).

    Jokic, who technically hasn't played an entire season (80 games, holy sample size Batman!!) sits as follows:

    51.2% FG%
    33.3% 3pt%
    81.1% FT%
    53.5% eFG%
    10 PTS
    7 REB
    2.4 AS
    1 STL
    0.6 BLK

    Watching him on film, he's pretty athletic for his size, a slightly above average and willing passer, sets good screens and is better defensively than the <1 block stat shows. If he continues to improve he could be a much, much better version of what Bogut brings to GS.

    While he isn't as dominant in the post as Okafor, he seems to possess a good fluid stroke that could keep defenses honest and he looks to be more willing on the defensive end than Jah.

    Anyways, just food for thought.

    Have a great holiday weekend everybody!
     
  14. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I wouldn't. I appreciate the conversation, but nah. These two prospects are probably the two best in a decade. Maybe longer.
     
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  15. Lakers2015

    Lakers2015 - Lakers Starter -

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    As I've maintained all along you don't trade Ingram or Simmons unless you're getting back a proven NBA superstar. Not an All Star. Not a really good player, but a great one. Same thing I've said about D'Angelo Russell. Getting to pair the two together is a dream scenario for all of us.
     
  16. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Jokic is a legitimate NBA talent but he's a little bit of a douche player. He's got heavy millenial attitude, very haughty and at times disrespectful. I don't know what that has to do with anything, but needed to be said!

    I still don't make these trades though. I have great faith in these two forwards in the draft. I think we can approximate the output of any player we can trade the pick for meaning I don't think Jokic + whatever else we get (because the pick is more valuable than Jokic alone ) is worth it. We have too much money already so we might as well go spend it on guys while developing our youngsters. I'm still in the "only for Paul George or greater" camp.
     
  17. KareemtheGreat33

    KareemtheGreat33 - Lakers MVP -

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    I couldn't find his vertical leap stat anywhere. Anyone know?
     
  18. OmarE

    OmarE - Lakers Starter -

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    I really really hope Lakers can somehow get Thon!!!! The guy seems extremely humble and intelligent. He has all the tools to be great

     
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  19. revgen

    revgen - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Kwame Brown was an honors student in High School. Intelligence off the court doesn't necessarily translate on the court.

    That being said, if he's still available in the 2nd round, I'd take a stab at him, and maybe stash him overseas for awhile.
     
  20. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    i'm guessing there will be better prospects available at #32. i hope bentil's there.

    i just don't like the way maker moves. it's deliberate and shaky, no power and fluidity like the guys who folks would want him to emulate (kg, for example). i think he'll have to put on a lot of weight and become a center. the talk of him being a sf (not from him, but from fans) is pretty ludicrous, imo. i'm not even sure he can move well enough to play pf in the nba.
     

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