Official 2016 Free Agency Thread

Noah is a textbook fit for the offense: defensive minded, hard worker on the glass, and most importantly an excellent passer for a big man. Add that to what I'd do with his contract to preserve a max slot and to me it's a no brainer. I wouldn't mind getting Horford or Whiteside, but that'd basically kill any chance we'd have at preserving a max slot next summer.

 

I'm fine with him starting as long as we have a competent backup behind him because he provides us with great spacing. That's why I like the idea of getting DeRozan still and then Clarkson off the bench. Let Ingram start, get some good minutes, space the floor, then bring in Clarkson and slide DeRozan down to SF. If not, then trying to get a guy like Budinger makes a lot of sense.

 

Biyombo is playing his behind off in the 1st quarter in game 3. I really don't like the idea of paying a player for a playoff run, but man he is making me reconsider that, he had 10 boards and a block in 1 quarter. I also still want DeRozan, he's talent we can't turn down if he wants to actually come here, an All-Star actually signing here is rare for us.

 

BTW, trodgers was on the Biyombo train for a while. I think we should all give him props. I was on the train a few months back, but Rodgers has been wanting this guy for over two years.

 

He has as much offensive game as DJ Mbenga, but his rebounding and defense may get him a max contract. With today's NBA, a big like him that does all the dirty work, and doesn't care about getting the ball at all, might actually be more valuable to teams like the Warriors and what we are trying to do here.

 

Biyombo seems like less of a concern though to disappear when he gets paid.

 

In a GS offense the big needs to be able to pass (at least the one in the starting lineup). Bogut really helps that offense hit a new level.

Still, Biyombo does seem like the kind of kid you'd love on your team. Works his tail off, doesn't ask for anything, and gets it done. I like him.

 

On a well-coached team, top picks should generally play. DAR

Maybe. But DD has scored at a level in the NBA that JC can only dream of. You need multiple weapons, and we could always have two of DAR, DD, and JC on the court. That's an awesome guard rotation.

 

I'm headed to starbucks. I'll run some numbers on DD and our triumvirate.

 

I look at possessions in this way:
FGA = 1 possession
FTA = 1/2 possession
AST = 1 possession
TO = 1 possession

It's an estimate, because it doesn't take account of technical FTA, and-1s, and fouled on three-point shots. It also doesn't check each assist to see if it was on a triple or a two. I estimate it based on the team's ratio of 3pt FGM to total FGM.

With that in mind, here are the numbers from the triumvirate:

Clarkson
In 1415 he consumed 977 possessions, produced 1150 points, for 1.18 points per possession. That's pretty good.
In 1516 he was the initiator less, handed out a lower assist rate, and so consumed 1527 possessions, produced 1651 points, for 1.08 per possession. That's okay.

Russell
Russell consumed 1513 possessions, produced 1644 points, for 1.09 per possession. That's okay.

Randle
Randle consumed 1263 possessions, produced 1239 points, for 0.98 points per possession. That's not good. It's pretty inefficient.

DeRozan
In 1415 DeRozan consumed 1621 possessions, produced 1852 points, for 1.14 per possession. That's pretty good.
In 1516 DeRozan consumed 2193 possessions, produced 2573 points, for 1.17 points per possession. That's pretty good.

BTW,
Biyombo
In 1516 Biyombo consumed 501 possessions, produced 522 points, for 1.04 points per possession.
In 1415, Biyombo consumed 304 possessions, produced 344 points, for 1.01 points per possession.

What does it all mean? JC is most efficient as a ball handler, DD is most efficient in the role he played last year, and Russell is already a pretty efficient player, even standing by and watching a lot as he did this year. Randle is an inefficient player, and Biyombo doesn't need much run for him to be fairly effective. A guard rotation of Russell and DeRozan starting with Clarkson coming in to spell whichever one is a very good guard rotation, at least on offense. JC's the weakest of the three defenders, but he's also pretty darn good as a playmaker. The PG/SG minutes could probably be split 32/32/32 for those three, and we'd be in great hands. Maybe DD could even see a few minutes at the SF on occasion to give more time to DA (I'd like DA at around 34 MPG this season).

There is some good news. Here's the pre- and post-ASB breakdown for Randle:
Pre: 841 possessions, 801 points, 0.95 per possession.
Post: 422 possessions, 438 points, 1.04 per possession.

A front court of Randle and Biyombo would be devastating on the boards. Randle was 7th in the NBA in rebounds per 36, and Biyombo was 9th. They both averaged 13+ Rebounds per 36, and in their combined 163 games, they averaged 18.2 boards combined.

Russell/Clarkson
DeRozan/Williams
Ingram/Brown
Randle/Nance
Biyombo/Stoudemire

Yes, we have a weakness at SF depth, but where does a team like this finish in 1617? And how awesome is that team in 2-3 years?