2018/19 Lakers/NBA Salary Cap Thread: #2019lan Activated

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by vasashi17, Jul 30, 2018.

  1. vasashi17

    vasashi17 Moderator Staff Member

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    So with LABron (not since '96 with Shaq, have we nabbed "the" free agent) about to make his first public appearance and announcement as a Laker today, its a good time to look at our final books, some key upcoming dates and how the rest of 2018/19 free agency has gone so far. (All sourced material is from Spotrac.com)

    LA is capped out and looking at about 106.5m in team salary (roughly 4.5m above the salary cap of 101.9m) for 15 players on the roster (not counting our 2way contracts of Caruso and Wear). We're roughly 17m away from the luxury tax threshold (123.7m) and roughly 23m away from the cap apron (aka hard cap of 129.8m). We are not in any danger of paying tax or being hard capped this coming year.

    Also, we used up roughly all but about 1m of the room exception (4.45m) to sign Beasley. We used the vet min exception (1.5m will show on our books) to sign McGee (who will actually get paid 2.4m since he's a 10 year vet). Other than the remaining 1m of our room exception and vet min exception contracts, we do not have any other exceptions cap, trade or otherwise at our disposal (since we used a portion of the room exception, we do not have the bi-annual exception to use, even though we did not use it last summer). We used our cap space for the rest of our free agents and draft picks this summer (LABron, KCP, Rondo, Stephenson, Moe, Sv33 and Bongo). Out of those signings, only LABron, Moe and Bonga have guaranteed money in year 2 of their new contracts. Carroll, Williams and Berry II take our roster to capacity at 20 heading into training camp and will most likely not make the main roster and instead be invited to our G-League affiliate.

    The Lakers led the league in free agency spending this summer, handing out about 192m in guaranteed new money to 9 players.

    Key dates to pay attention to for the Lakers are: July 31st (trade restriction is lifted off of Moe), August 5th (trade restriction is lifted off of Bonga), August 9th (trade restriction is lifted off of Sv33) and August 31st (Deng must be stretched by then if LA wants to open up nearly 10.6m of cap space THIS summer, otherwise they can stretch him after August 31st to have his 18m apply to our salary cap this coming year and then he would count as 6.3m in dead cap over 3 years vs 7.4m in dead cap over 5 years). All our newly minted free agents can't get traded till December 15th at the earliest.

    Here's the break down of each Lakers player's contract:

    [​IMG]
    View attachment 1730

    So moving past the Lakers this summer, barring a team using the stretch provision, there are only 2 teams remaining with available cap space(Sac and Phx) and only Sac (11m) has notable spending power (vs Phx who has only 1.6m in available cap). Interesting note about Sac is that they sit at 90.8m in team salary and are about 1m below the cap floor (91.7m), yet have 16 guaranteed contracts on the roster. They can only have 15 fully guaranteed contracts on the roster once training camp starts, yet if they waive a player, they still are short of meeting the cap floor. So a trade looks to be in the forecast.

    Other teams to pay attention to are Cleveland, Minnesota and the Heat, who all have only 12 on the roster of guaranteed money and must add a couple more guys before training camp starts. Toronto and GS are sitting on 13 and still need to add 1 more guy to their roster.

    There are currently 8 teams that project to be over the tax threshold (123.7m) and will be tax-payers this coming season: Boston, Miami, Portland, Washington, Houston, Toronto, GS and OKC.

    [​IMG]
    View attachment 1729

    Out of 177 potential '18 free agents, 90 have signed to remain in the NBA. Of those 90 NBA contracts, 1.6B is guaranteed money to these players. Lastly, here are the new contracts to the free agency class of 2018, where only Jokic and Capela were offered 5 years fully guaranteed deals and only LABron, Cp3, Paula and Jokic were given their true maxes in year 1 of their new deals.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    View attachment 1724
    View attachment 1725
    View attachment 1726
    View attachment 1727

    Also here are the upcoming relevant cap values for the coming summers:



    With those numbers, the summer of 2019 projects to have the year 1 salaries of the 25% (0-6 years) max valued at 27.3m, 30% (7-9 years) max valued at 32.7m and the 35% (10+ years) max valued at 38.2m.

    Barring the use of the stretch provision, incomplete roster charges, unused exceptions and/or waiving unguaranteed contracts, only 9 teams project to have at least enough cap space next summer to offer one 25% max contract:
    Lakers - $28m (#2019lan)
    NY - $38.8m
    Philly - $40.6m
    cLips - $48.7m
    ATL - $53.3m
    Dallas - $57.2m
    Sac - $58.7m
    BK - $64.9m
    Indy - $66.8m

    The free agent market next summer is projected to be less chilly than the one that was this summer, with half the league (15 teams) projected to have at least 20m in cap space available to shop with.

    Please use this thread to discuss, aggregate resources & ask questions about cap related free agency issues in regards to the Lakers as well as any other team. Thx!

    (S/O to @therealdeal & @LaVarBallsDad for the idea/inspiration)
     
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  2. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers MVP -

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    Oh, this is nice. Great, great detail. So glad we kept our flexibility - we're prepared to go down any road we want and we kept our assets. Very good job, FO
     
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  3. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    Bonga is the KEY to everything.
     
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  4. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers MVP -

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    I'm thinking at @vasashi17 from a cost perspective: What's the best way to build this team to get the most value out of it? I think the obvious solution is getting rid of Deng's contract without taking any salary back; now because of his participation in the competitive game he was i, I'm hoping a team and another year off his deal, is there as way we can get rid of him and maybe 1 pick and take an expiring back?

    I'm not sure, but I'd love to be able to have a clean slate heading into next summer, and improve this roster...
     
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  5. vasashi17

    vasashi17 Moderator Staff Member

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    @LaVarBallsDad I think the best way to get off Deng's contract is to use it in getting Kawhi back (at .25-.50 cents on the dollar) so that we don't waste a year of Bron's prime. Although this route is unlikely, I proposed this 3teamer with the Raps and Sac in another thread.

    If you consider what BK did with Mozgov (similar contract to Deng), then they attached #45 pick (2018 2nd rounder), a 2021 2nd rounder and 5m in cash for the expiring 24m Dwight contract. The Cats then flipped Mozzy/Grant for Bismack and in the process saved 7m in salary by replacing Dwight's 24m with Bismack's 17m. They then used the savings in that deal to pick up Parker at 5m per. They're currently sitting on 120m in team salary and will not pay the tax accordingly. However, if they held onto Dwight they most likely would be paying the tax.

    So to move Deng we need to look at teams that have large expiring deals looking to shed money to avoid the luxury tax. And that is why I'm looking at Miami who has Hassan who has a 2 year deal, but it can potentially be an expiring via his player option. Miami currently has about 128m in team salary and needs to shed roughly 4.5m to avoid the tax. The difference in Deng/Zu and Hassan's contracts is about 6m.
     
  6. vasashi17

    vasashi17 Moderator Staff Member

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    abeer3, sirronstuff and Barnstable like this.
  7. vasashi17

    vasashi17 Moderator Staff Member

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    Some obvious housekeeping to settle with the Deng stretch.

    14 on the roster now and that means our Kawhi connection - Mr. Ayres come on down - we got a center position that is in dire need and we obviously stretched Deng to get a max spot next summer.

    So why now? If we stretched Deng Aug. 31st, he would have counted as dead cap for the next 5 years starting 2018/19. But since we stretched him a day later, he only counts as dead cap for 3 years starting the 2019/20 season. So Deng comes completely off the books by summer '22 rather than summer of '23. But more importantly this was done on the 1st day possible for Deng to become a free agent this summer while still only having his salary affect our books at a minimum (sans a trade). This was done now to serve a Laker need, but to also show the league we care for our players and will try to facilitate their concerns/priorities. Deng wanted to play, but not sacrifice too much of his bag, so free agents look at what we did for dude, while you see how the cLips did their "Gandhi/King tshirt" franchise player and how they did their personnel, aye Bowen. #PlayerLivesMatter

    So lets say no buyout was constructed and this was a straight stretch:
    2018/19 - 18m
    2019/20 - 6.3m
    2020/21 - 6.3m
    2021/22 - 6.3m

    #2019lan: Bron, Zo, BI, Kuz, Hart, Moe, Svi, Bonga = 8 players, means a 4 incomplete roster charge of about 3.5m. So adding that to our existing team salary of 68.5m, means we have 37m in salary cap space next summer. Recall that a 25% max player needs 27.3m in cap space, a 30% max player needs 32.7m in cap space and a 35% max player needs 38.2m in cap space. Kawhi/Butler/Klay all fall in the 30% max player category, while KD falls in the 35% max player category.

    So had we not gone the buyout route, the Lakers at best would have had 37m in cap space next summer and even if we waived Svi's 1.4m nonguaranteed deal, we wouldn't have gained enough cap space to truly offer a chick like KD her true max since our incomplete roster charge would now have to account for 5 roster slots short of 12 which would mean that we would only gain a net of 600k in cap space leading to 37.6m in cap space and still fall short of KD's 38.2m max.

    However, with the 7.5m buyout of Deng, it looks as if 3.7m will apply towards this year leading to a 14.3m cap hit ( = 18 - 3.7) and 3.8m will apply towards the 18.8m cap hit of 2019/20, leading to a stretch of only 15m.
    2018/19 - 14.3m
    2019/20 - 5m
    2020/21 - 5m
    2021/22 - 5m

    Notice how the the extra 1.3m we save going this route creates 38.3m in cap space for the #2019lan?

    I still prefer Kawhi all day over a skirt like KD...but it certainly looks like we'll have enough cap to pursue KD next summer now. We have no limitations to add one max player next summer no matter what max tier they fall under.
     
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  8. Barnstable

    Barnstable Supreme Fuzzler of Lakersball.com Staff Member

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    Ah thanks for that Vas. You answered my question for “why now” in the Deng thread.
     
  9. vasashi17

    vasashi17 Moderator Staff Member

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  10. OX1947

    OX1947 - Lakers Starter -

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    if its between Durant and Kawhi, I pick Kawhi 10 out of 10 times. Kawhi is exactly what this team needs to finish this team off.
     
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  11. fabfourlakers

    fabfourlakers - Lakers 6th Man -

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    All I can say is....the Lakers are f***ing back baby. Everybody better be REALLY REALLY scared. We don't need anybody's help now to get a superstar next summer...and we get to keep LeBron + young core + all of our future draft picks.

    I know for a fact we're getting someone next summer...and now we just gotta hope Toronto and Minny don't trade Kawhi or Butler...and we may need to hope that the Warriors finally have some issues and that 2 of Klay, KD and Cousins leave the Warriors this summer as a result (likely gonna be Cousins that is gone for sure with one of KD or Klay).

    so many things to like about what we did with Luol Deng waive and stretch...but my goodness...getting to $38.2M in cap space...giving up no assets? I couldn't be happier...

    Magic and Rob deserve statues if they pull off another major FA next summer after we hopefully have a deep playoff run (2nd rd or WCF)
     
  12. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    Best team and organizational situation LeBron's ever had around him save for his Miami years. He's going to mentor these kids and be more fun to play with than Kobe's intenseness would have been. With LBJ still being his own winning a ring is the thing self. He ought to be that way. This situation should rejuvenate him after the load he's been carrying in Cleveland. Add another superstar like Leonard next year and holy crap!
     
  13. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers MVP -

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    That's the key; adding another superstar. Somewhere in the age range in between the kids and Lebron; so as Lebron ages, that superstar, Kawhi or otherwise can carry the load along with our youth.

    We'd have a perfect blend with the roster...
     
  14. lakerjones

    lakerjones Moderator Staff Member

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    Plan A - KD or Kawhi. Plan B - Butler or Klay. Let's get one of these guys and we are going to be good to go.
     
  15. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff LB Facebook Editor

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    I imagine that Lebron’s trade value will be really high for the next couple of years too, and so with a lack of no trade clause included, we are situated really well for the future.
     
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  16. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    LOL. You're hoping we Blake Griffin him mid season next year.

    :Laughingcop:

    Seriously .... no No trade clause?
     
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  17. vasashi17

    vasashi17 Moderator Staff Member

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    Updated #2019lan cap figures for next summer:

    140EEFB4-382B-4224-B517-9C525D7C7D54.png

    = 62.2m (active team salary) + 5m (stretched Deng dead cap) + 3.6m (incomplete roster charge of 4 * 900k)

    = 70.8m (team salary)
    = 38.2m (cap space)

    We have the exact amount of cap space for a 35% max free agent, which is the most a max player (sans a super max player who can't leave their home team for the Lakers) can get on the open market in year 1 of their contract.


    EAB9AAF2-8938-4558-93D0-010FF91E137F.png


    KCP has early bird rights and essentially has a no-trade clause in his 1yr deal. So if we trade for Kawhi, he must consent on a trade that has him potentially playing a few months in Toronto before he hits free agency again.

    Zu has a cap hold of 1.9m and if he sticks we would have to renounce his rights and use an exception to keep him if we go for a 35% max free agent like KD. If we don't then we can potentially have his cap hold remain on the books or up to 5.5m in cap holds so Lance, Beas or McGee+Zu if we target a 30% max player like Kawhi.

    Also based off our current team salary and being over the cap, a minimum of 18.4m must be outgoing to bring back Kawhi in a deal before the trade deadline this year. So for example if KCP doesn't consent on a trade and we don't want to send Zo or BI out, a package of Rondo + Lance + Beas + Kuz, Hart, McGee, Zu, Moe or Svi works. The only guy that would be safe in a Rondo/Lance/Beas (17m) centered package is Bonga cause we would be roughly 500k short in such a deal. Still that is a 4 for 1 swap and kinda rare in terms of midseason deals.
     
  18. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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  19. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff LB Facebook Editor

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    I'm just saying we're positioned well in case things go sideways.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Alcindor

    Alcindor - Lakers 6th Man -

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    I think Klay's value on the Lakers may be underestimated by some, and yeah I know Stephen A is shoveling his swill on the subject but he occasionally he makes sense. If we get Klay, the champs take a big blow. We get Kawhi they stay the same. They have real contract issues to face with both Klay and Green anyways. But as concerns the Laker/Warrior match up, overall Klay coming onboard in LA does more to improve us vs GSW than just signing Kawhi. Maybe not vs Houston and others so the appeal to get Kawhi is still really high but the focus is beating GSW.
     
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