NFL Draft Stats

Discussion in 'Other Sports Discussion' started by trodgers, Nov 21, 2018.

  1. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    The value of a draft pick.
    Goal 1: find a way to compare relative values of a player.
    Goal 2: avoid creating statistics and then arguing based on the controversial stat.
    Goal 3: make it manageable.
    So, I looked at all QBs selected in the draft since 2009

    116 QBs have been selected in these ten drafts.
    7 were taken #1
    4 were taken #2
    8 more were taken in the top 10
    11 more were taken in the top 32.
    4 were taken up to 40 (there’s a reason I chose this).
    17 were taken between 41 and 99.
    41 were taken 100-199.
    24 were taken after 199.

    Question 1: will this QB become the primary starter for a team in any season (meaning start 8+ games)?
    Overall: 44 of 116 did that, meaning 38% of QBs drafted met this standard.
    Every single starter drafted in the top 20 did that.
    After that, the numbers are still good out to the top 40: 7 of 10 managed it.
    41% of those from 41-99 managed it.
    12% of those in the 100s managed it.
    4% of those outside 199 managed it.

    Question 2: will this QB win 50% of his games started (excluding those who do not become primary starters)?
    Overall, only 16% of QBs drafted did that, 18 of 116.
    The peaks here are for early and late first rounders, but no group has more than 50% of their players winning more than 50% of their games.
    5 of 11 players drafted 1 or 2 managed it.
    From 3 to 20, 3 of 13 managed it.
    From 21-40, 3 of 10 managed it.
    From 41-99, 3 of 17 managed (18%)
    From 100-199, 7% (3 of 41) did it.
    1 of 24 outside the top 199 did it (4%).

    Question 3: Will the player become a Pro Bowler?
    15 of 116 accomplished this (13%).
    Among #1 picks, 5 of 7 did it (71%)
    Among #2 picks, 1 of 2 did it (50%)
    No one else through 20 did it.
    From 21-40, 3 of 10 managed it (30%)
    From 41-99, it’s 2 of 17 (12%)
    From 100-199, it’s 3 of 41 (7%)
    And no one outside 199 did it.

    Question 4: Will the player become an All-Pro?
    Short Answer: no. Only 2 players (1.7%) have managed it. One was drafted #1, and one was drafted #2.
    #1: 1 of 7 (14%)
    #2: 1 of 5 (25%)
    Everyone else: 0/105

    Question 5: Will the player become the Offensive Player of the Year?

    Again, no.
    Cam Newton, #1, did it. 0.9% chance.

    Question 6: What about MVP?

    Nah; same stats, same guy.

    The Average QB Drafted
    Has a 38% chance of becoming the primary starter for one season or more.
    Has a 16% chance of being a starter and winning 50% of his games.
    Has a 13% chance of a Pro Bowl.
    Has a 2% chance of an All-Pro showing.
    Has less than 1% chance of being the Offensive Player of the Year or the MVP.

    The Top 2 QB
    Has a 100% chance of being starter at some point.
    Has 45% chance of winning 50% of games in that role.
    Has 64% chance of Pro Bowl.
    Has 19% chance of All-Pro.
    Has 9% chance of OPY or MVP.

    The top 20 QB
    Has a 100% chance of becoming the starter for at least one season.
    Has a 33% chance of winning at least 50% of the games as a starter.
    Has a 29% chance of a Pro Bowl.
    Has an 8% chance of All-Pro.
    Has a 4% chance of Offensive Player of the Year.
    Has a 4% chance of MVP.

    The 21-40 QB
    Has a 75% chance of becoming the starter.
    Has a 25% chance of winning 50% of his games in that role.
    Has 25% chance of Pro Bowl.
    Has 0% chance of All-Pro, OPOY, or MVP.

    The QB outside the top 40

    Has a 17% chance of becoming the starter.
    Has a 10% chance of winning his games in that role.
    Has a 7% chance of a Pro Bowl.
    Has 0% chance of All-Pro, OPOY, or MVP.

    So, inside the top 40 vs. outside the top 40:

    The player has at least a 4x greater chance of becoming the starter for at least one season.
    Has a 150% better chance of winning 50% of games in that role.
    Is three times as likely to become a Pro Bowler.
    Probably won’t become an all-pro, OPOY, or MVP anyway.

    Ulterior motive: Raiders looking at two additional picks in the first round, and they'll have four picks in the top 40 in the upcoming draft. Not bad.
     
  2. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Centers
    No Centers have been chosen before the #18 pick in the draft in the past ten years.
    A total of 61 centers have been selected in the past ten years.
    37 have become the primary starter for at least one season. (61%)
    7 have been to the Pro Bowl (11%)
    4 have been named All Pro (7%)

    Top 20 Center Picks
    Four centers chosen between 18 and 20 have the following stats:
    All four (100%) have become the primary starter for at least one season.
    One (25%) became a multi-time Pro Bowler.
    One (25%) became a multi-time All-Pro.

    Four Centers 21-32
    Three of the four have become primary starters so far (75%).
    Three of the four have been to at least one Pro Bowl (75%).
    One has become an All-Pro (25%).

    Two Centers 33-40
    Neither has yet become the primary starter (both drafted 2018).

    Centers 41-99
    Fifteen have been drafted.
    13 have become the main starter for at least one season (87%)
    2 have become a Pro Bowler (13%)
    1 has become an All-Pro (7%)

    Center 100-199
    20 have been drafted.
    12 have become the main starter for at least one season (60%)
    1 has become a Pro Bowler (5%)
    1 has become an All Pro (5%)

    Centers 200+
    16 have been drafted
    5 have become the main starter for at least a season (31%).

    Top 40 vs. Outside Top 40?
    10 Selected 51
    70% Starter 59%
    40% Pro Bowl 6%
    20% All Pro 2%

    So, while you can still probably get a starter with a top 200 talent at C, you're seven times more likely to get a Pro Bowler and 10x more likely to get an All Pro. You even have decent odds of nabbing a Pro Bowler if you find a top 40 C talent.
     

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