The value of a draft pick. Goal 1: find a way to compare relative values of a player. Goal 2: avoid creating statistics and then arguing based on the controversial stat. Goal 3: make it manageable. So, I looked at all QBs selected in the draft since 2009 116 QBs have been selected in these ten drafts. 7 were taken #1 4 were taken #2 8 more were taken in the top 10 11 more were taken in the top 32. 4 were taken up to 40 (there’s a reason I chose this). 17 were taken between 41 and 99. 41 were taken 100-199. 24 were taken after 199. Question 1: will this QB become the primary starter for a team in any season (meaning start 8+ games)? Overall: 44 of 116 did that, meaning 38% of QBs drafted met this standard. Every single starter drafted in the top 20 did that. After that, the numbers are still good out to the top 40: 7 of 10 managed it. 41% of those from 41-99 managed it. 12% of those in the 100s managed it. 4% of those outside 199 managed it. Question 2: will this QB win 50% of his games started (excluding those who do not become primary starters)? Overall, only 16% of QBs drafted did that, 18 of 116. The peaks here are for early and late first rounders, but no group has more than 50% of their players winning more than 50% of their games. 5 of 11 players drafted 1 or 2 managed it. From 3 to 20, 3 of 13 managed it. From 21-40, 3 of 10 managed it. From 41-99, 3 of 17 managed (18%) From 100-199, 7% (3 of 41) did it. 1 of 24 outside the top 199 did it (4%). Question 3: Will the player become a Pro Bowler? 15 of 116 accomplished this (13%). Among #1 picks, 5 of 7 did it (71%) Among #2 picks, 1 of 2 did it (50%) No one else through 20 did it. From 21-40, 3 of 10 managed it (30%) From 41-99, it’s 2 of 17 (12%) From 100-199, it’s 3 of 41 (7%) And no one outside 199 did it. Question 4: Will the player become an All-Pro? Short Answer: no. Only 2 players (1.7%) have managed it. One was drafted #1, and one was drafted #2. #1: 1 of 7 (14%) #2: 1 of 5 (25%) Everyone else: 0/105 Question 5: Will the player become the Offensive Player of the Year? Again, no. Cam Newton, #1, did it. 0.9% chance. Question 6: What about MVP? Nah; same stats, same guy. The Average QB Drafted Has a 38% chance of becoming the primary starter for one season or more. Has a 16% chance of being a starter and winning 50% of his games. Has a 13% chance of a Pro Bowl. Has a 2% chance of an All-Pro showing. Has less than 1% chance of being the Offensive Player of the Year or the MVP. The Top 2 QB Has a 100% chance of being starter at some point. Has 45% chance of winning 50% of games in that role. Has 64% chance of Pro Bowl. Has 19% chance of All-Pro. Has 9% chance of OPY or MVP. The top 20 QB Has a 100% chance of becoming the starter for at least one season. Has a 33% chance of winning at least 50% of the games as a starter. Has a 29% chance of a Pro Bowl. Has an 8% chance of All-Pro. Has a 4% chance of Offensive Player of the Year. Has a 4% chance of MVP. The 21-40 QB Has a 75% chance of becoming the starter. Has a 25% chance of winning 50% of his games in that role. Has 25% chance of Pro Bowl. Has 0% chance of All-Pro, OPOY, or MVP. The QB outside the top 40 Has a 17% chance of becoming the starter. Has a 10% chance of winning his games in that role. Has a 7% chance of a Pro Bowl. Has 0% chance of All-Pro, OPOY, or MVP. So, inside the top 40 vs. outside the top 40: The player has at least a 4x greater chance of becoming the starter for at least one season. Has a 150% better chance of winning 50% of games in that role. Is three times as likely to become a Pro Bowler. Probably won’t become an all-pro, OPOY, or MVP anyway. Ulterior motive: Raiders looking at two additional picks in the first round, and they'll have four picks in the top 40 in the upcoming draft. Not bad.